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Image | Housing Has Bottomed – Or Maybe Not
Housing Has Bottomed – Or Maybe Not
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

I am working extra hard to stay ahead of the spin in my attempts to separate the facts from the fiction that now permeate the news cycles.

We’ve recently talked about the all-in effort to convince us that Peak Oil has been debunked, which is an effort that is principally concentrated in the US and UK press. I’ll have more on that in future reports.

Recently there have been a bevy of articles in a variety of news outlets trumpeting the recent new home sales numbers from home builders as indicative that the long-awaited housing bottom has finally arrived. My view is that it is too soon to make that call.

Here’s a recent example:

Housing Has Bottomed – Or Maybe Not
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

I am working extra hard to stay ahead of the spin in my attempts to separate the facts from the fiction that now permeate the news cycles.

We’ve recently talked about the all-in effort to convince us that Peak Oil has been debunked, which is an effort that is principally concentrated in the US and UK press. I’ll have more on that in future reports.

Recently there have been a bevy of articles in a variety of news outlets trumpeting the recent new home sales numbers from home builders as indicative that the long-awaited housing bottom has finally arrived. My view is that it is too soon to make that call.

Here’s a recent example:

Image | Bill Black (Part II): A Mess of Our Own Making
Bill Black (Part II): A Mess of Our Own Making
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

In Part II of Chris' shocking interview with Bill Black on the extreme vulnerability that our economic system has to fraud (click here for Part I), the discussion deepens, exploring a number of disturbing topics including:

  • Why there is such a crisis of accountability today
  • Why future fraud-driven crises are inevitable if status quo continues
  • What strategies are needed to reduce the prevalence of fraud

 

Bill Black (Part II): A Mess of Our Own Making
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

In Part II of Chris' shocking interview with Bill Black on the extreme vulnerability that our economic system has to fraud (click here for Part I), the discussion deepens, exploring a number of disturbing topics including:

  • Why there is such a crisis of accountability today
  • Why future fraud-driven crises are inevitable if status quo continues
  • What strategies are needed to reduce the prevalence of fraud

 

Image | What Data Can We Trust?
What Data Can We Trust?
by charleshughsmith

Modern investing offers the promise that investors who "do their homework" and use data more intelligently than the herd can gain a valuable edge. But what if the underlying data available to the investing public is fundamentally flawed? 

The federal government agencies that issue headline data and the mainstream media that reprints the data without skeptical analysis would have us believe that these indicators — the unemployment rate and the consumer price index (CPI), for example — accurately reflect economic realities.

The other indicator that is implicitly or explicitly assumed to reflect the economy’s health is, of course, the stock market, generally represented by the S&P 500 index.

That the government indicators and the stock market are both suspect is now a given.

 
What Data Can We Trust?
 by charleshughsmith

Modern investing offers the promise that investors who "do their homework" and use data more intelligently than the herd can gain a valuable edge. But what if the underlying data available to the investing public is fundamentally flawed? 

The federal government agencies that issue headline data and the mainstream media that reprints the data without skeptical analysis would have us believe that these indicators — the unemployment rate and the consumer price index (CPI), for example — accurately reflect economic realities.

The other indicator that is implicitly or explicitly assumed to reflect the economy’s health is, of course, the stock market, generally represented by the S&P 500 index.

That the government indicators and the stock market are both suspect is now a given.

 
Image | The Three Key Indicators to Watch
The Three Key Indicators to Watch
 PREVIEW
by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Expect the Fed's ability to move the market to weaken from here
  • The three key investment-actionable indicators
  • The most likely direction the dollar will head next
  • Why capital preservation is now of paramount priority

Part I: What Data Can We Trust?

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: The Three Key Indicators to Watch

In Part I, we set aside the suspect “headline numbers” issued by government agencies as metrics of economic health, and as an alternative methodology, we surveyed the income and balance sheets of households and the federal government. We found declining household income and tax receipts, and high debt loads for both households and the government. This data simply does not support the rosy view of “recovery” presented by government officials.

Let's now examine more actionable indicators of economic health. In other words, it’s all well and good to ascertain whether the economy is growing smartly or not, but how does that guide our investment strategy?

The Three Key Indicators to Watch
 PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Expect the Fed's ability to move the market to weaken from here
  • The three key investment-actionable indicators
  • The most likely direction the dollar will head next
  • Why capital preservation is now of paramount priority

Part I: What Data Can We Trust?

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: The Three Key Indicators to Watch

In Part I, we set aside the suspect “headline numbers” issued by government agencies as metrics of economic health, and as an alternative methodology, we surveyed the income and balance sheets of households and the federal government. We found declining household income and tax receipts, and high debt loads for both households and the government. This data simply does not support the rosy view of “recovery” presented by government officials.

Let's now examine more actionable indicators of economic health. In other words, it’s all well and good to ascertain whether the economy is growing smartly or not, but how does that guide our investment strategy?

Image | Harvey Organ (Part II): The Road Ahead for the Precious Metals
Harvey Organ (Part II): The Road Ahead for the Precious Metals
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

src=In Part II of Chris’ fascinating interview with Harvey Organ on the precious metals (click here for Part I), the discussion deepens, exploring a number of popular topics including:

  • All things Silver
  • How much gold is there really backing the major ETFs?, and 
  • Harvey’s 2012 forecast for bullion prices

Harvey Organ (Part II): The Road Ahead for the Precious Metals
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

src=In Part II of Chris’ fascinating interview with Harvey Organ on the precious metals (click here for Part I), the discussion deepens, exploring a number of popular topics including:

  • All things Silver
  • How much gold is there really backing the major ETFs?, and 
  • Harvey’s 2012 forecast for bullion prices

Image | Harvey Organ: Get Physical Gold & Silver!
Harvey Organ: Get Physical Gold & Silver!
by Adam Taggart

Harvey Organ has been analyzing the bullion markets closely for decades. The quality and accuracy of his work is respected enough to have earned him an invitation to testify before the CFTC on position limits for precious metals back in 2010.

And he minces no words: Gold and silver prices are suppressed. With extreme prejudice.

In this detailed interview, Harvey explains to Chris the mechanics of how he sees this manipulation occurring, why he predicts this fraudulent pricing scheme will collapse soon, and why it's critical to be holding physical (vs. paper) bullion when it does.

 
Harvey Organ: Get Physical Gold & Silver!
 by Adam Taggart

Harvey Organ has been analyzing the bullion markets closely for decades. The quality and accuracy of his work is respected enough to have earned him an invitation to testify before the CFTC on position limits for precious metals back in 2010.

And he minces no words: Gold and silver prices are suppressed. With extreme prejudice.

In this detailed interview, Harvey explains to Chris the mechanics of how he sees this manipulation occurring, why he predicts this fraudulent pricing scheme will collapse soon, and why it's critical to be holding physical (vs. paper) bullion when it does.

 
Image | The Triggers That Will Spark ‘Hot’ Inflation
The Triggers That Will Spark ‘Hot’ Inflation
 PREVIEW
by Gregor Macdonald

The Triggers That Will Spark ‘Hot’ Inflation

by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Thursday, April 19, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Rising wages in the developing world create upward price pressure everywhere globally
  • The paradox of safety: Many traditional “safe” assets (e.g., bonds) are horrible places to store capital during ‘hot’ inflation
  • Money velocity drives inflation — and it has only one direction to go these days: up
  • Winning and losing assets if ‘hot’ inflation does indeed break out

Part I: Get Ready for ‘Hot’ Inflation

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: The Triggers That Will Spark ‘Hot’ Inflation

Arthur Lewis was an economist from the small, Caribbean island of St. Lucia who went on to win a Nobel Prize in 1979. His work identified the process by which very cheap labor is brought from the countryside to urban areas during phases of industrialization in developing countries. At a certain point, this supply of cheap labor went into decline and wage pressures began to mount.

Now referred to as the Lewis Turning Point, such a phase marks the end of a kind of deflationary boom, in which input costs fall during a phase of hyper-strong growth, and the beginning of inflationary restraints, in which profit margins stop growing. This is exactly what’s happening in China today.

The Triggers That Will Spark ‘Hot’ Inflation
 PREVIEW by Gregor Macdonald

The Triggers That Will Spark ‘Hot’ Inflation

by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Thursday, April 19, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Rising wages in the developing world create upward price pressure everywhere globally
  • The paradox of safety: Many traditional “safe” assets (e.g., bonds) are horrible places to store capital during ‘hot’ inflation
  • Money velocity drives inflation — and it has only one direction to go these days: up
  • Winning and losing assets if ‘hot’ inflation does indeed break out

Part I: Get Ready for ‘Hot’ Inflation

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: The Triggers That Will Spark ‘Hot’ Inflation

Arthur Lewis was an economist from the small, Caribbean island of St. Lucia who went on to win a Nobel Prize in 1979. His work identified the process by which very cheap labor is brought from the countryside to urban areas during phases of industrialization in developing countries. At a certain point, this supply of cheap labor went into decline and wage pressures began to mount.

Now referred to as the Lewis Turning Point, such a phase marks the end of a kind of deflationary boom, in which input costs fall during a phase of hyper-strong growth, and the beginning of inflationary restraints, in which profit margins stop growing. This is exactly what’s happening in China today.

Image | Get Ready for ‘Hot’ Inflation
Get Ready for ‘Hot’ Inflation
by Gregor Macdonald

Ideological deflationists and inflationists alike find themselves both facing the same problem. The former still carry the torch for a vicious deflationary juggernaut sure to overpower the actions of the mightiest central banks on the planet. The latter keep expecting not merely a strong inflation but a breakout of hyperinflation.

Neither has occurred, and the question is, why not?

The answer is a 'cold' inflation, marked by a steady loss of purchasing power that has progressed through Western economies, not merely over the past few years but over the past decade. Moreover, perhaps it’s also the case that complacency in the face of empirical data (heavily-manipulated, many would argue), support has grown up around ongoing “benign” inflation.

If so, Western economies face an unpriced risk now, not from spiraling deflation, nor hyperinflation, but rather from the breakout of a (merely) strong inflation.

Surely, this is an outcome that sovereign bond markets and stock markets are completely unprepared for. Indeed, by continually framing the inflation vs. deflation debate in extreme terms, market participants have created a blind spot: the risk of a conventional, but 'hot,' inflation.

 
Get Ready for ‘Hot’ Inflation
 by Gregor Macdonald

Ideological deflationists and inflationists alike find themselves both facing the same problem. The former still carry the torch for a vicious deflationary juggernaut sure to overpower the actions of the mightiest central banks on the planet. The latter keep expecting not merely a strong inflation but a breakout of hyperinflation.

Neither has occurred, and the question is, why not?

The answer is a 'cold' inflation, marked by a steady loss of purchasing power that has progressed through Western economies, not merely over the past few years but over the past decade. Moreover, perhaps it’s also the case that complacency in the face of empirical data (heavily-manipulated, many would argue), support has grown up around ongoing “benign” inflation.

If so, Western economies face an unpriced risk now, not from spiraling deflation, nor hyperinflation, but rather from the breakout of a (merely) strong inflation.

Surely, this is an outcome that sovereign bond markets and stock markets are completely unprepared for. Indeed, by continually framing the inflation vs. deflation debate in extreme terms, market participants have created a blind spot: the risk of a conventional, but 'hot,' inflation.

 
Image | Off the Cuff: Inflation, aka the ‘Sinister Tax’
Off the Cuff: Inflation, aka the ‘Sinister Tax’
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

The most sinister of all taxes is the inflation tax and it is the most regressive. It hits the poor and the middle class. ~ Ron Paul

width=

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish has the week off, so Chris takes the mic and delivers an in-depth look at consumer price inflation. He cites a plethora of data that validates what anyone who eats, drives, or visits the doctor already knows: The “official” CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers released by our government and others around the world are completely bogus.

Money expansion is a cornerstone of modern central banking strategy. With so much outstanding total debt, increasing the money supply (i.e., inflation) becomes increasingly essential for perpetuating the system.

Today, Chris focuses on the question, What is going to happen when that strategy no longer works?

Off the Cuff: Inflation, aka the ‘Sinister Tax’
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

The most sinister of all taxes is the inflation tax and it is the most regressive. It hits the poor and the middle class. ~ Ron Paul

width=

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish has the week off, so Chris takes the mic and delivers an in-depth look at consumer price inflation. He cites a plethora of data that validates what anyone who eats, drives, or visits the doctor already knows: The “official” CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers released by our government and others around the world are completely bogus.

Money expansion is a cornerstone of modern central banking strategy. With so much outstanding total debt, increasing the money supply (i.e., inflation) becomes increasingly essential for perpetuating the system.

Today, Chris focuses on the question, What is going to happen when that strategy no longer works?

Image | The Trouble with Money
The Trouble with Money
by Chris Martenson
A Broken Narrative

Recently I was asked by a high school teacher if I had any ideas about why students today seem so apathetic when it comes to engaging with the world around them. I waggishly responded, "Probably because they're smart."

In my opinion, we're asking our young adults to step into a story that doesn't make any sense.

Sure, we can grow the earth's population to 9 billion (and probably will), and sure, we can extract our natural gas and oil resources as fast as possible, and sure, we can continue to pile on official debts at a staggering pace — but why are we doing all this? Even more troubling, what do we say to our youth when they ask what role they should play in this story — a story with a plot line they didn't get to write?

So far, the narrative we're asking them to step into sounds a lot like this: Study hard, go to college, maybe graduate school. And when you get out, not only will you be indebted to your education loans and your mortgage, but you'll be asked to help pay back trillions and trillions of debt to cover the decisions of those who came before you. All while operating within a crumbling, substandard infrastructure. Oh, and by the way, the government and corporate sector appear to have no real interest in your long-term future; you're on your own there.

 
The Trouble with Money
 by Chris Martenson
A Broken Narrative

Recently I was asked by a high school teacher if I had any ideas about why students today seem so apathetic when it comes to engaging with the world around them. I waggishly responded, "Probably because they're smart."

In my opinion, we're asking our young adults to step into a story that doesn't make any sense.

Sure, we can grow the earth's population to 9 billion (and probably will), and sure, we can extract our natural gas and oil resources as fast as possible, and sure, we can continue to pile on official debts at a staggering pace — but why are we doing all this? Even more troubling, what do we say to our youth when they ask what role they should play in this story — a story with a plot line they didn't get to write?

So far, the narrative we're asking them to step into sounds a lot like this: Study hard, go to college, maybe graduate school. And when you get out, not only will you be indebted to your education loans and your mortgage, but you'll be asked to help pay back trillions and trillions of debt to cover the decisions of those who came before you. All while operating within a crumbling, substandard infrastructure. Oh, and by the way, the government and corporate sector appear to have no real interest in your long-term future; you're on your own there.

 
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