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The Unraveling Continues

The User's Profile Chris Martenson February 4, 2014
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The U.S. stock markets had a bad day, as did Japan's and Europe's. Of course, the whole world is linked now, so that's no surprise.

As goes one, so go the others.

The selling was pretty broad-based, but there wasn't any panic liquidation to be seen. Just a nice, orderly sell-off. At this point, we haven't even hit the 'decent pullback' mark of a 10% decline from the recent all-time highs. So there's not much to get too worked up about. Yet.

However, I will continue to pound on the idea that the weakness in emerging markets is signaling something more severe than a typical, healthy market correction.

Here's an interesting chart from ZeroHedge of the index of Latin American currencies. It's notable for two reasons. The first is that it has breached new lows that exceed the depths of the 2008 pullback:

(Source)

The second reason is that the breakdown in 2008 preceded the U.S. panic selling seen in September and October of that year (indicated here by the two vertical dotted blue lines: the one on the left is June; the second marks the beginning of September.)

Now let's compare those timings to the S&P 500 back in 2008:

(Source)

The dotted blue lines in this second chart correspond to those in the Latin American one above. While the S&P had been weakening since late 2007, the real break (green circle) came after the emerging markets started already signaling trouble.

There were a couple of

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