Okay folks. It’s happening. Let’s dive in.
Oil!
A large story from the Iran War is the price of oil, of course. The derivative story is the supply shock that is now hitting the global economy.
Oil futures spiked over $100 instantly upon the open at 7:00 PM ET on Sunday night. Then continued climbing all the way to nearly $120.
Then, magic! The G7 countries announced plans for a 300-400 million barrel release from various G7 SPR stockpiles.
SPR release between 300-400 million bbls.By our estimate, tanker flow disruption to March 29 will reduce global oil inventories by ~450 million bbls. SPR will help fill a void, but not for long. The strategic reserves will be refilled later, which will be a tailwind on… https://t.co/MmCghtjKgE
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) March 9, 2026
Oil then crashed all the way back to $96.
It’s now trading at $103. My prediction is that oil rallies from here on out for as long as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz more or less closed.
Here’s the thing, before the war roughly 450 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transited the Strait of Hormuz per month. So, this strategic release will be consumed in less than a month. But that’s if and only if all that SPR release can be accomplished in a month.
It will probably take 3-4 months. The US has a very limited SPR ‘tapping rate’ due to physical constraints in getting the oil back up from the salt caverns in which it is stored.
8 Mb/week is only 32 Mb/month. Other countries are going to have to tap into their storage tank SPR holdings to make a real dent in that 400 Mb SPR number. I wonder how they
by cmartenson 
