The Coming Rout

The Coming Rout

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Executive Summary

• Further evidence that a Fed quantitative easing stoppage in June is likely
• Implications such a stoppage will have on stocks, commodities, bonds, and precious metals
• Why this will be more damaging to the economy than the 2008 correction
• Will the Fed eventually resume quantitative easing?
• Three alternatives to watch for that could prevent the coming rout
• How to hedge against the predicted rout

Part I:  Why Things Are About To Get Turned Upside Down

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II:  The Coming Rout

There are a few things that make the prospect of a Fed quantitative easing (QE) stoppage more likely.

The Fed Notices Inflation

Using a flashlight, a map, and both hands, the Fed managed to find something:

Fed Finds Climbing Costs Hit Shoppers 

March 3, 2011

Many manufacturers are passing along higher input costs to their customers, a sign that rising prices for wheat, cotton, iron, and other commodities could increasingly reach consumers in coming months, according to the Federal Reserve’s beige book survey.

The report, a summary of economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 regional districts, said manufacturers “in a number of districts reported having greater ability” to pass through higher costs. “Retailers in some districts mentioned they had implemented price increases or were anticipating such action in the next few months,” the Fed said.

It’s good to see that the Fed is at least dimly aware that price inflation is in the pipe and coming soon to a market near you.  The rest of the world has had no such difficulties in detecting inflation, especially on news like this:

Food Prices Reach Record High

LONDON—World food prices rose 2.2% in February from the previous month to a record peak, the United Nations’ food body said Thursday, as it warned that volatility in oil markets could push prices even higher.

Global cereal supplies are also expected to tighten sharply this year due low stock levels, the FAO said.