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Image | 2014 Year in Review: Part 2
2014 Year in Review: Part 2
by David Collum

This year has been all about risk—existential risk. Some of it seemed to dissipate and some lingers.  Market valuations remain risky—regression to the mean could easily provide a 50% haircut and more if we observe regression through the mean. This has not come to pass, but the risk is very real.

Those who seek risk in markets will eventually find it.
2014 Year in Review: Part 2
 by David Collum

This year has been all about risk—existential risk. Some of it seemed to dissipate and some lingers.  Market valuations remain risky—regression to the mean could easily provide a 50% haircut and more if we observe regression through the mean. This has not come to pass, but the risk is very real.

Those who seek risk in markets will eventually find it.
Image | 2014 Year in Review
2014 Year in Review
by David Collum

I have not seen a year in which so many risks—some truly existential—piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. Groping for a metaphor—I love metaphors and similes—I feel like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows.
2014 Year in Review
 by David Collum

I have not seen a year in which so many risks—some truly existential—piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. Groping for a metaphor—I love metaphors and similes—I feel like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows.
Image | I Blame The Central Banks
I Blame The Central Banks
by Chris Martenson

The current bubble in financial assets — in both equities and bonds of all grades and quality — raging in every major market across the globe is no accident.

It's a deliberate creation. An intentional result of policy.

Therefore, when it bursts, we shouldn't regard the resulting damage as some freak act of nature or other such outcome outside of our control. To reiterate, the carnage will be the very predictable result of our terribly shortsighted decision-making and defective logic.
I Blame The Central Banks
 by Chris Martenson

The current bubble in financial assets — in both equities and bonds of all grades and quality — raging in every major market across the globe is no accident.

It's a deliberate creation. An intentional result of policy.

Therefore, when it bursts, we shouldn't regard the resulting damage as some freak act of nature or other such outcome outside of our control. To reiterate, the carnage will be the very predictable result of our terribly shortsighted decision-making and defective logic.
Image | How To Position Yourself Now
How To Position Yourself Now
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

Executive Summary

  • Planning determinants for:
    1. Precious Metals
      • Bullion: physical
      • Bullion: stored & tradable
      • Miners
    2. Stocks & bonds
      • Remaining long
      • Strategies for shorting
    3. Real Estate
    4. Debt Management
    5. Income Security
    6. Local Investing
    7. Personal Preparations
    8. Community Preparations

If you have not yet read The Good News In All The Bad Data, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Though we strongly advise in Part 1 to move to cash, it's essential to remember that this is largely a transitional maneuver. The goal is to keep your powder dry during the coming deflationary storm, and then deploy it in as intelligently and timely a manner as possible when your dollars can buy quality assets at excellent discounts. In this Part 2, we walk you through the principal components for building your investing action plan for both in advance of, and when, that time arrives.

Also, we understand that for reasons of options and attitude, simply moving your portfolio 100% into cash is unpalatable or unrealistic for a number of people. Some of you will want to, perhaps even need to, have a percentage of your capital remain in the financial markets for the foreseeable future. So we discuss both long and short strategies for you to evaluate and pick whichever best suits your personal situation.

It's important to understand that the solution set contained below is a superset for your consideration and not a one-size-fits-all recipe (i.e. do NOT take it as personal investment advice!). As strongly urged in Part 1, its best use is as a structured guide for you and your financial adviser to use together in discussing and developing an investment plan customized to your goals, needs and risk tolerance.

Suffice it to say, everything discussed in this report (even the % cash component mentioned in Part 1) should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…

Precious Metals

One of the biggest mysteries that continues to perplex Chris and me is: Why is central bank liquidity creating price bubbles in every asset class EXCEPT the one you would expect it to most?

Here we have everything from Facebook stock to Las Vegas houses to junk bonds to Beats headphones catching bids at insane prices. As Chris discussed last week with economist Steen Jakobsen, the data for stocks over the past year shows that the worse the balance sheet, the better a company's stock performance has been.

Why is everything down to pure crap being lifted by the giant pool of money sloshing around the planet, but prices for gold and silver — arguably the highest-grade assets to own — are so badly languishing?

I won't rehash all of our speculations for why, as there are dozens of recent articles on this site speculating on the topic. But as this year's mega-report on gold drives home, the actual fundamentals for owning precious metals not only remain intact, but they are expanding materially each year. 

Well, the good news here is that the precious metals market is the one place you don't have to wait for the "buy at pennies on the dollar" experience. It's here now.

Prices are not only far below what the fundamentals justify, but…

How To Position Yourself Now
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

Executive Summary

  • Planning determinants for:
    1. Precious Metals
      • Bullion: physical
      • Bullion: stored & tradable
      • Miners
    2. Stocks & bonds
      • Remaining long
      • Strategies for shorting
    3. Real Estate
    4. Debt Management
    5. Income Security
    6. Local Investing
    7. Personal Preparations
    8. Community Preparations

If you have not yet read The Good News In All The Bad Data, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Though we strongly advise in Part 1 to move to cash, it's essential to remember that this is largely a transitional maneuver. The goal is to keep your powder dry during the coming deflationary storm, and then deploy it in as intelligently and timely a manner as possible when your dollars can buy quality assets at excellent discounts. In this Part 2, we walk you through the principal components for building your investing action plan for both in advance of, and when, that time arrives.

Also, we understand that for reasons of options and attitude, simply moving your portfolio 100% into cash is unpalatable or unrealistic for a number of people. Some of you will want to, perhaps even need to, have a percentage of your capital remain in the financial markets for the foreseeable future. So we discuss both long and short strategies for you to evaluate and pick whichever best suits your personal situation.

It's important to understand that the solution set contained below is a superset for your consideration and not a one-size-fits-all recipe (i.e. do NOT take it as personal investment advice!). As strongly urged in Part 1, its best use is as a structured guide for you and your financial adviser to use together in discussing and developing an investment plan customized to your goals, needs and risk tolerance.

Suffice it to say, everything discussed in this report (even the % cash component mentioned in Part 1) should be reviewed with your financial adviser before taking any action. Am I being excessively repetitive here in order to drive this point home? Good…

Precious Metals

One of the biggest mysteries that continues to perplex Chris and me is: Why is central bank liquidity creating price bubbles in every asset class EXCEPT the one you would expect it to most?

Here we have everything from Facebook stock to Las Vegas houses to junk bonds to Beats headphones catching bids at insane prices. As Chris discussed last week with economist Steen Jakobsen, the data for stocks over the past year shows that the worse the balance sheet, the better a company's stock performance has been.

Why is everything down to pure crap being lifted by the giant pool of money sloshing around the planet, but prices for gold and silver — arguably the highest-grade assets to own — are so badly languishing?

I won't rehash all of our speculations for why, as there are dozens of recent articles on this site speculating on the topic. But as this year's mega-report on gold drives home, the actual fundamentals for owning precious metals not only remain intact, but they are expanding materially each year. 

Well, the good news here is that the precious metals market is the one place you don't have to wait for the "buy at pennies on the dollar" experience. It's here now.

Prices are not only far below what the fundamentals justify, but…

Image | Anti-Gold Propaganda Reaches Fever Pitch
Anti-Gold Propaganda Reaches Fever Pitch
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

There are times when the anti-gold propaganda in the western world, or at least the US, becomes just too much to let it pass by. I usually let it roll off but sometimes it needs to be illustrated for what it is.

A deliberate attempt to get people in the west to lose faith in the ability of gold to protect one's wealth, presumably with the side benefit of causing those same people to either not purchase gold at all, or to sell what they already have.
Anti-Gold Propaganda Reaches Fever Pitch
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

There are times when the anti-gold propaganda in the western world, or at least the US, becomes just too much to let it pass by. I usually let it roll off but sometimes it needs to be illustrated for what it is.

A deliberate attempt to get people in the west to lose faith in the ability of gold to protect one's wealth, presumably with the side benefit of causing those same people to either not purchase gold at all, or to sell what they already have.
Image | Robert Kiyosaki: Entrepreneurship Is Your Shield Against the Coming Wealth Transfer
Robert Kiyosaki: Entrepreneurship Is Your Shield Against the Coming Wealth Transfer
by Chris Martenson

I believe there's an entrepreneur in everybody. 

~ Robert Kiyosaki

Last weekend, Chris and I traveled to Phoenix, AZ, where we spent several days with Robert Kiyosaki, author of the popular personal finance book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, which has sold over 26 million copies to-date.

Robert had read The Crash Course, and it resonated so strongly with him that he purchased copies for his staff and made it the theme of his company's leadership conference this spring. Together with his wife, Kim, and his council of Rich Dad advisors, we spent many hours discussing the future implications of the Three E's with business leaders from across Robert's global organization.

Robert Kiyosaki: Entrepreneurship Is Your Shield Against the Coming Wealth Transfer
 by Chris Martenson

I believe there's an entrepreneur in everybody. 

~ Robert Kiyosaki

Last weekend, Chris and I traveled to Phoenix, AZ, where we spent several days with Robert Kiyosaki, author of the popular personal finance book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, which has sold over 26 million copies to-date.

Robert had read The Crash Course, and it resonated so strongly with him that he purchased copies for his staff and made it the theme of his company's leadership conference this spring. Together with his wife, Kim, and his council of Rich Dad advisors, we spent many hours discussing the future implications of the Three E's with business leaders from across Robert's global organization.

Image | The 10 Factors Destroying our Social Health
The 10 Factors Destroying our Social Health
 PREVIEW
by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The erosion of community is due to many factors
  • Understanding these factors enables us to begin combating them
  • The 10 reasons American social capital is declining
  • What it will take for a revival in social cooperation

If you have not yet read The Erosion of Community, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed a number of explanations for the erosion of community, starting with the landmark 1950 book, The Lonely Crowd, and found that no one theory adequately accounted for the decline of social capital in America.

Here are ten other factors that could be factors in this long-term erosion:

1.  The explosion of choices in the mass media (mentioned by Robert Putnam and Kevin K.) now offers endless opportunities to form a protective bubble around oneself: if you only want to hear views that confirm your existing biases, it's now very easy to do so, and you don’t even need to go out into the real world to do so.

Since confirming our own beliefs is safe and comfortable, our collective reaction may be to avoid people who might disagree with us. Eventually, such isolated individuals “socializing” in self-selected groups online lose the ability to function productively in diverse groups of real people in a real community.

2.  The mobility demanded of labor.  The mobility of labor in America–that workers can pull up stakes and move to better job opportunities–is often lauded as the key to the U.S. economy's flexibility and resilience. This is no doubt true, but that mobility eviscerates community: if you move every 2-3 years (as required of military personnel, Corporate America managers and many others), what's the motivation for joining and contributing to local groups?…

The 10 Factors Destroying our Social Health
 PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The erosion of community is due to many factors
  • Understanding these factors enables us to begin combating them
  • The 10 reasons American social capital is declining
  • What it will take for a revival in social cooperation

If you have not yet read The Erosion of Community, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed a number of explanations for the erosion of community, starting with the landmark 1950 book, The Lonely Crowd, and found that no one theory adequately accounted for the decline of social capital in America.

Here are ten other factors that could be factors in this long-term erosion:

1.  The explosion of choices in the mass media (mentioned by Robert Putnam and Kevin K.) now offers endless opportunities to form a protective bubble around oneself: if you only want to hear views that confirm your existing biases, it's now very easy to do so, and you don’t even need to go out into the real world to do so.

Since confirming our own beliefs is safe and comfortable, our collective reaction may be to avoid people who might disagree with us. Eventually, such isolated individuals “socializing” in self-selected groups online lose the ability to function productively in diverse groups of real people in a real community.

2.  The mobility demanded of labor.  The mobility of labor in America–that workers can pull up stakes and move to better job opportunities–is often lauded as the key to the U.S. economy's flexibility and resilience. This is no doubt true, but that mobility eviscerates community: if you move every 2-3 years (as required of military personnel, Corporate America managers and many others), what's the motivation for joining and contributing to local groups?…

Image | The Trends to Watch For in 2014
The Trends to Watch For in 2014
by charleshughsmith

At the beginning of this year (2013), I identified eight key dynamics that will play out over the next two to three years (2013-2015). Let’s see how the trends developed…

The Trends to Watch For in 2014
 by charleshughsmith

At the beginning of this year (2013), I identified eight key dynamics that will play out over the next two to three years (2013-2015). Let’s see how the trends developed…

Image | There Is Too Little Gold in the West
There Is Too Little Gold in the West
by Alasdair Macleod

Western central banks have tried to shake off the constraints of gold for a long time, which has created enormous difficulties for them. They have generally succeeded in managing opinion in the developed nations but been demonstrably unsuccessful in the lesser-developed world, particularly in Asia. It is the growing wealth earned by these nations that has fuelled demand for gold since the late 1960s. There is precious little bullion left in the West today to supply rapidly increasing Asian demand. It is important to understand how little there is and the dangers this poses for financial stability.
There Is Too Little Gold in the West
 by Alasdair Macleod

Western central banks have tried to shake off the constraints of gold for a long time, which has created enormous difficulties for them. They have generally succeeded in managing opinion in the developed nations but been demonstrably unsuccessful in the lesser-developed world, particularly in Asia. It is the growing wealth earned by these nations that has fuelled demand for gold since the late 1960s. There is precious little bullion left in the West today to supply rapidly increasing Asian demand. It is important to understand how little there is and the dangers this poses for financial stability.
Image | The Wisdom of Looking Like an Idiot Today
The Wisdom of Looking Like an Idiot Today
by Adam Taggart

Perhaps you still remember the speed and depth of the 2008 credit crisis' arrival, and its toxic impact on asset prices, jobs, and overall trust in the financial system. Maybe you took notes during the preceding tech and housing bubbles and their aftermath. If so, you likely swore that "Never again!" would you put your wealth at risk during such obvious times of public mania.

So, if this sounds at all like you, five years after the 2008 crisis, how is the "prudent" strategy looking today?
The Wisdom of Looking Like an Idiot Today
 by Adam Taggart

Perhaps you still remember the speed and depth of the 2008 credit crisis' arrival, and its toxic impact on asset prices, jobs, and overall trust in the financial system. Maybe you took notes during the preceding tech and housing bubbles and their aftermath. If so, you likely swore that "Never again!" would you put your wealth at risk during such obvious times of public mania.

So, if this sounds at all like you, five years after the 2008 crisis, how is the "prudent" strategy looking today?
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