page-loading-spinner

interest rates

by Gregor Macdonald

Executive Summary

  • Japan is intentionally devaluing its currency through money printing. The recent boost in the Nikkei is simply the result of this flood of new money.
  • Japan industry is now experiencing cost increases on two fronts: inflation of the money supply, and rising prices on the global market for commodities.
  • Rising bond rates are all but guaranteed.
  • Gold vs. the yen is surging and will pick up momentum from here
  • The ten predictable events that will happen next, as the unavoidable Japan disaster unfolds

If you have not yet read Part I: The Arrival of Japan's Sunset available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part II we explain why Japan has unequivocally entered the terminal phase of its 20-year reflationary experiment.

Further “abundance” harvesting from this point forward will be difficult if not impossible.

Is the devaluation of the yen really the successful technology that will fool nature? We think not. The outcome will have spectacular implications for many global assets, ranging from real estate, to stock markets, to oil and gold.

Observers of Japan from this point forward should be sober about the threshold the country has now crossed. Japan has effectively said to the world: Go ahead, make my day. Sell our currency, give us inflation, and get out of our bonds.

Japan has indeed taken to heart the Krugman dictum, and committed to irresponsibility.

The 10 Next Predictable Steps to Japan’s Unfolding Disaster
PREVIEW by Gregor Macdonald

Executive Summary

  • Japan is intentionally devaluing its currency through money printing. The recent boost in the Nikkei is simply the result of this flood of new money.
  • Japan industry is now experiencing cost increases on two fronts: inflation of the money supply, and rising prices on the global market for commodities.
  • Rising bond rates are all but guaranteed.
  • Gold vs. the yen is surging and will pick up momentum from here
  • The ten predictable events that will happen next, as the unavoidable Japan disaster unfolds

If you have not yet read Part I: The Arrival of Japan's Sunset available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part II we explain why Japan has unequivocally entered the terminal phase of its 20-year reflationary experiment.

Further “abundance” harvesting from this point forward will be difficult if not impossible.

Is the devaluation of the yen really the successful technology that will fool nature? We think not. The outcome will have spectacular implications for many global assets, ranging from real estate, to stock markets, to oil and gold.

Observers of Japan from this point forward should be sober about the threshold the country has now crossed. Japan has effectively said to the world: Go ahead, make my day. Sell our currency, give us inflation, and get out of our bonds.

Japan has indeed taken to heart the Krugman dictum, and committed to irresponsibility.

by Chris Martenson

Bob Wiedemer, author of the best-seller The Aftershock Investor: A Crash Course in Staying Afloat in a Sinking Economy, regards the 2007 puncturing of housing market prices and the 2008 financial market swoon as the precedents to two much larger and much more dangerous bubbles.

These more pernicious threats are the dollar bubble ("printing money") and the government debt bubble ("borrowing money"). While both are expanding at a sickening pace, in the near term they deceptively make things seem much better than they are.

But, like all bubbles, they are unsustainable. And when these collapse, they are going to take the entire financial system, and very possibly the currency, with them (a.k.a. the "aftershock")

Bob predicts that the rupture of both these bubbles will most likely happen in the next 2-4 years and accelerate astonishingly rapidly once it begins.

Robert Wiedemer: Awaiting the Aftershock
by Chris Martenson

Bob Wiedemer, author of the best-seller The Aftershock Investor: A Crash Course in Staying Afloat in a Sinking Economy, regards the 2007 puncturing of housing market prices and the 2008 financial market swoon as the precedents to two much larger and much more dangerous bubbles.

These more pernicious threats are the dollar bubble ("printing money") and the government debt bubble ("borrowing money"). While both are expanding at a sickening pace, in the near term they deceptively make things seem much better than they are.

But, like all bubbles, they are unsustainable. And when these collapse, they are going to take the entire financial system, and very possibly the currency, with them (a.k.a. the "aftershock")

Bob predicts that the rupture of both these bubbles will most likely happen in the next 2-4 years and accelerate astonishingly rapidly once it begins.

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Triffin's Paradox leads to four principal conclusions that indicate why the U.S. dollar may well continue to strengthen from here
  • Why the euro's troubles have been good for the price of gold
  • Why the dollar can strengthen despite the United States' wishes
  • Why the future may well see the price of both gold and the U.S. dollar rise

If you have not yet read Part I: Gold & the Dollar are Less Correlated then Everyone Thinks, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we examined the commonly offered correlations between the dollar, gold, interest rates, and the monetary base, and found no consistent correlations between any of these and the domestic economy.  Clearly, the trade-weighted value of the dollar and the value of gold have at best marginal impact on the domestic economy. 

Perhaps the dollar’s primary impact is on the international economy, as suggested by Triffin’s Paradox, which begins with the premise that the needs of the global trading community are different from the needs of domestic policy makers.

Prior to 1971, the dollar was backed by gold, which acted as a supra-national anchor to the dollar's reserve status.  As the U.S. monetary base expanded while gold remained artificially pegged at $35 an ounce, roughly half of America’s gold reserves were shipped overseas before the policy was jettisoned.

Here is the Wikipedia entry on Triffin’s Paradox:

The Triffin paradox is a theory that when a national currency also serves as an international reserve currency, there could be conflicts of interest between short-term domestic and long-term international economic objectives. This dilemma was first identified by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin in the 1960s, who pointed out that the country whose currency foreign nations wish to hold (the global reserve currency) must be willing to supply the world with an extra supply of its currency to fulfill world demand for this 'reserve' currency (foreign exchange reserves) and thus cause a trade deficit. (emphasis added)

The use of a national currency (i.e. the U.S. dollar) as global reserve currency leads to a tension between national monetary policy and global monetary policy. This is reflected in fundamental imbalances in the balance of payments, specifically the current account: some goals require an overall flow of dollars out of the United States, while others require an overall flow of dollars in to the United States. Net currency inflows and outflows cannot both happen at once.

This leads to some startling conclusions that many have great difficulty accepting…

Why Gold & the Dollar May Both Rise from Here
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Triffin's Paradox leads to four principal conclusions that indicate why the U.S. dollar may well continue to strengthen from here
  • Why the euro's troubles have been good for the price of gold
  • Why the dollar can strengthen despite the United States' wishes
  • Why the future may well see the price of both gold and the U.S. dollar rise

If you have not yet read Part I: Gold & the Dollar are Less Correlated then Everyone Thinks, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part I, we examined the commonly offered correlations between the dollar, gold, interest rates, and the monetary base, and found no consistent correlations between any of these and the domestic economy.  Clearly, the trade-weighted value of the dollar and the value of gold have at best marginal impact on the domestic economy. 

Perhaps the dollar’s primary impact is on the international economy, as suggested by Triffin’s Paradox, which begins with the premise that the needs of the global trading community are different from the needs of domestic policy makers.

Prior to 1971, the dollar was backed by gold, which acted as a supra-national anchor to the dollar's reserve status.  As the U.S. monetary base expanded while gold remained artificially pegged at $35 an ounce, roughly half of America’s gold reserves were shipped overseas before the policy was jettisoned.

Here is the Wikipedia entry on Triffin’s Paradox:

The Triffin paradox is a theory that when a national currency also serves as an international reserve currency, there could be conflicts of interest between short-term domestic and long-term international economic objectives. This dilemma was first identified by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin in the 1960s, who pointed out that the country whose currency foreign nations wish to hold (the global reserve currency) must be willing to supply the world with an extra supply of its currency to fulfill world demand for this 'reserve' currency (foreign exchange reserves) and thus cause a trade deficit. (emphasis added)

The use of a national currency (i.e. the U.S. dollar) as global reserve currency leads to a tension between national monetary policy and global monetary policy. This is reflected in fundamental imbalances in the balance of payments, specifically the current account: some goals require an overall flow of dollars out of the United States, while others require an overall flow of dollars in to the United States. Net currency inflows and outflows cannot both happen at once.

This leads to some startling conclusions that many have great difficulty accepting…

by charleshughsmith

Whenever I make the case for a stronger U.S. dollar (USD), the feedback can be sorted into three basic reasons why the dollar will continue declining in value:

  1. The USD may gain relative to other currencies, but since all fiat currencies are declining against gold, it doesn’t mean that the USD is actually gaining value; in fact, all paper money is losing value.
  2. When the global financial system finally crashes, won’t that include the dollar?
  3. The Federal Reserve is “printing” (creating) money, and that will continue eroding the purchasing power of the USD. Lowering interest rates to zero has dropped the yield paid on Treasury bonds, which also weakens the dollar.

The general notion here is that, given the root causes of our economic distemper – rampant financialization, over-leverage and over-indebtedness, a politically dominant parasitic banking sector, an aging population, overpromised entitlements, a financial business model based on fraud, Federal Reserve monetizing of debt, and a dysfunctional political system, to mention only the top of the list – how can the USD appreciate in real terms?

Gold & the Dollar are Less Correlated than Everyone Thinks
by charleshughsmith

Whenever I make the case for a stronger U.S. dollar (USD), the feedback can be sorted into three basic reasons why the dollar will continue declining in value:

  1. The USD may gain relative to other currencies, but since all fiat currencies are declining against gold, it doesn’t mean that the USD is actually gaining value; in fact, all paper money is losing value.
  2. When the global financial system finally crashes, won’t that include the dollar?
  3. The Federal Reserve is “printing” (creating) money, and that will continue eroding the purchasing power of the USD. Lowering interest rates to zero has dropped the yield paid on Treasury bonds, which also weakens the dollar.

The general notion here is that, given the root causes of our economic distemper – rampant financialization, over-leverage and over-indebtedness, a politically dominant parasitic banking sector, an aging population, overpromised entitlements, a financial business model based on fraud, Federal Reserve monetizing of debt, and a dysfunctional political system, to mention only the top of the list – how can the USD appreciate in real terms?

Total 86 items