Insider
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- Petroleum is bumping along its global maximum plateau
- Global demand (led by Asia) will soon far outstrip supply
- Why oil is getting scarcer, but cheap oil is already non-existent
- How insufficient net energy will be the mortal pin that pops our unsustainable financial system
If you have not yet read The Really, Really Big Picture, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Global Supply
Where the U.S. shale plays have been getting an undue allotment of press compared to their current and projected flow rates, the major story remains that oil companies are spending more and more as oil becomes more difficult to find and challenging to produce.
What's interesting is that so many people hold the opposite view, perhaps shaped by the breathless manner in which new finds are announced, but rarely with an appropriate level of context or caution so that we can judge how significant or likely these finds actually are.
Here's a relatively recent example that captures this dynamic rather well. Back in 2010, a very exciting discovery was splashed all across the news with some very heady claims:
McMoRan Exploration announced a potentially major natural gas discovery in its operated Davy Jones ultra-deep prospect drilled in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico (commonly referred to as the "shelf"), just 10 miles off the Louisiana coast.
Positive drilling results could be a huge boom for the company. McMoRan Exploration had proved oil and gas reserves at year-end 2009 totaling 271.9 Bcfe (billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents), compared with 344.8 Bcfe in 2008.
Estimates of the size of the discovery range from 2 trillion to 6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, rivaling the largest gas finds ever made in the Gulf.
(Source)
This is the nature of such press releases, as I now think of them. Yes, it's exciting that billions of barrels could be discovered and that these finds might produce as much as 15 billion barrels of oil. Unfortunately, a short euphoric sound bite like that is all of the story that every really gets transmitted to the casual reader. I combat these perceptions constantly in my live Q&A sessions after speeches.
The full reality is contained within the context-free but vitally important statement that tapping this field requires drilling down to more than 28,000 feet (!).
Fast forward to 2012 and here's the reality of that find…
How Energy Woes Will Trigger Financial Crisis
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Petroleum is bumping along its global maximum plateau
- Global demand (led by Asia) will soon far outstrip supply
- Why oil is getting scarcer, but cheap oil is already non-existent
- How insufficient net energy will be the mortal pin that pops our unsustainable financial system
If you have not yet read The Really, Really Big Picture, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Global Supply
Where the U.S. shale plays have been getting an undue allotment of press compared to their current and projected flow rates, the major story remains that oil companies are spending more and more as oil becomes more difficult to find and challenging to produce.
What's interesting is that so many people hold the opposite view, perhaps shaped by the breathless manner in which new finds are announced, but rarely with an appropriate level of context or caution so that we can judge how significant or likely these finds actually are.
Here's a relatively recent example that captures this dynamic rather well. Back in 2010, a very exciting discovery was splashed all across the news with some very heady claims:
McMoRan Exploration announced a potentially major natural gas discovery in its operated Davy Jones ultra-deep prospect drilled in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico (commonly referred to as the "shelf"), just 10 miles off the Louisiana coast.
Positive drilling results could be a huge boom for the company. McMoRan Exploration had proved oil and gas reserves at year-end 2009 totaling 271.9 Bcfe (billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents), compared with 344.8 Bcfe in 2008.
Estimates of the size of the discovery range from 2 trillion to 6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, rivaling the largest gas finds ever made in the Gulf.
(Source)
This is the nature of such press releases, as I now think of them. Yes, it's exciting that billions of barrels could be discovered and that these finds might produce as much as 15 billion barrels of oil. Unfortunately, a short euphoric sound bite like that is all of the story that every really gets transmitted to the casual reader. I combat these perceptions constantly in my live Q&A sessions after speeches.
The full reality is contained within the context-free but vitally important statement that tapping this field requires drilling down to more than 28,000 feet (!).
Fast forward to 2012 and here's the reality of that find…
by
charleshughsmith
Executive Summary
- Paper wealth will revert to its intrinsic value
- Risk will continue to be transferred onto the taxpaying public
- Moral hazard and fraud will by the norm, not the exception
- Complexity will be used to mask failure
- Individuals will increasingly opt out of the system through means both covert and overt
If you have not yet read The Trends to Watch in 2013, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we examined eight dynamics which will likely influence society, politics, and finance in the next few years. In Part II, we examine different manifestations of the one dynamic that counts: the inability of the Status Quo to make meaningful structural reforms. This inability has many facets, but only one root: political sclerosis caused by entrenched, vested interests seeking to protect their perquisites and power.
An economy that is controlled by the government is one in which political power, not the market, controls the distribution of national income. A government in which political power is for sale to the highest bidder puts the wealthy at an extreme advantage, as they have the means to buy political power to protect and expand their share of the national income.
In order to do the bidding of the financial Elite, the political Elite redistributes enough national income to the bottom 50% and retirees to buy their complicity in the arrangement.
A nation in which political power is for sale is one in which the rule of law is bent to serve those with power.
This is the U.S. in a nutshell.
Among the many manifestations of this arrangement, I have selected these as prominent examples of systemic financial and political rot:
Understanding the Outcomes that Will Matter Most
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- Paper wealth will revert to its intrinsic value
- Risk will continue to be transferred onto the taxpaying public
- Moral hazard and fraud will by the norm, not the exception
- Complexity will be used to mask failure
- Individuals will increasingly opt out of the system through means both covert and overt
If you have not yet read The Trends to Watch in 2013, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we examined eight dynamics which will likely influence society, politics, and finance in the next few years. In Part II, we examine different manifestations of the one dynamic that counts: the inability of the Status Quo to make meaningful structural reforms. This inability has many facets, but only one root: political sclerosis caused by entrenched, vested interests seeking to protect their perquisites and power.
An economy that is controlled by the government is one in which political power, not the market, controls the distribution of national income. A government in which political power is for sale to the highest bidder puts the wealthy at an extreme advantage, as they have the means to buy political power to protect and expand their share of the national income.
In order to do the bidding of the financial Elite, the political Elite redistributes enough national income to the bottom 50% and retirees to buy their complicity in the arrangement.
A nation in which political power is for sale is one in which the rule of law is bent to serve those with power.
This is the U.S. in a nutshell.
Among the many manifestations of this arrangement, I have selected these as prominent examples of systemic financial and political rot:
by
Chris Martenson
The title of this piece is The Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing. The subtitle is Why Your Bread Is Going to Cost More. I connect these two in reflecting on my recent podcast with David Collum, in which he stated that our money has no value and that this fact is distorting everything.
What he meant was, if you take your money to the bank to deposit it, the bank offers no interest on that money, implying that money has no value to them. If they valued it or had a legitimate use for it, they would offer you something for its use. Obviously, money doesn't have zero value to the banks; they can place it on deposit with the Fed for 0.25% yearly interest. But by any historical measure, money has no value right now.
That's just what happens when any commodity – which money happens to be – becomes too abundant. It drops in price. What 0% rates on money tell us is that there's just an enormous amount of it sloshing around – and that, my dear friends, distorts everything else.
As I have said many times, when you misprice money itself, everything else becomes mispriced, too.
The Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonThe title of this piece is The Price of Everything and the Value of Nothing. The subtitle is Why Your Bread Is Going to Cost More. I connect these two in reflecting on my recent podcast with David Collum, in which he stated that our money has no value and that this fact is distorting everything.
What he meant was, if you take your money to the bank to deposit it, the bank offers no interest on that money, implying that money has no value to them. If they valued it or had a legitimate use for it, they would offer you something for its use. Obviously, money doesn't have zero value to the banks; they can place it on deposit with the Fed for 0.25% yearly interest. But by any historical measure, money has no value right now.
That's just what happens when any commodity – which money happens to be – becomes too abundant. It drops in price. What 0% rates on money tell us is that there's just an enormous amount of it sloshing around – and that, my dear friends, distorts everything else.
As I have said many times, when you misprice money itself, everything else becomes mispriced, too.
by
charleshughsmith
Executive Summary
- A rising dollar would negatively impact stock market profits and valuations
- Interest rates ultimately will rise, and that will be a game-changer
- Investors will eventually realize that "risk-free" assets (e.g., U.S. Treasurys) are NOT safe havens
- Why there will be few places for financial capital to find shelter in 2013
If you have not yet read Part I: The Structural Endgame of the Fiscal Cliff, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we covered the basics of wealth and political power in the U.S. and found that the Fiscal Cliff is only a symptom of a structural endgame in which the imbalance between what has been promised and what can be collected in taxes will continue growing until it triggers a financially driven political crisis that I believe will inevitably become a full-blown Constitutional crisis.
Though there are many facets of this long-term political crisis that are worthy of further exploration, we will to start with three financial aspects that could start impacting households in 2013: a rise in interest rates and a resultant destruction of bond valuations, a rise in the U.S. dollar that negatively impacts U.S. corporate profits and thus stock market valuations, and a reduction in upper-income households’ spending as a result of higher taxes that depress discretionary consumer spending.
A Rising Dollar Negatively Impacts Stock Market Profits and Valuations
Let’s start with a topic that I have covered in depth over the past year, the structural reasons behind the rise of the U.S. dollar (USD). The recurring fantasy that Europe’s fiscal and debt crises are “fixed” and the Federal Reserve’s money-printing/Treasury bond purchases have recently depressed the USD, but in the longer term, the USD has been tracing out an unmistakably bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows since May 2011…
What Will Happen When We Hit the Cliff
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- A rising dollar would negatively impact stock market profits and valuations
- Interest rates ultimately will rise, and that will be a game-changer
- Investors will eventually realize that "risk-free" assets (e.g., U.S. Treasurys) are NOT safe havens
- Why there will be few places for financial capital to find shelter in 2013
If you have not yet read Part I: The Structural Endgame of the Fiscal Cliff, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we covered the basics of wealth and political power in the U.S. and found that the Fiscal Cliff is only a symptom of a structural endgame in which the imbalance between what has been promised and what can be collected in taxes will continue growing until it triggers a financially driven political crisis that I believe will inevitably become a full-blown Constitutional crisis.
Though there are many facets of this long-term political crisis that are worthy of further exploration, we will to start with three financial aspects that could start impacting households in 2013: a rise in interest rates and a resultant destruction of bond valuations, a rise in the U.S. dollar that negatively impacts U.S. corporate profits and thus stock market valuations, and a reduction in upper-income households’ spending as a result of higher taxes that depress discretionary consumer spending.
A Rising Dollar Negatively Impacts Stock Market Profits and Valuations
Let’s start with a topic that I have covered in depth over the past year, the structural reasons behind the rise of the U.S. dollar (USD). The recurring fantasy that Europe’s fiscal and debt crises are “fixed” and the Federal Reserve’s money-printing/Treasury bond purchases have recently depressed the USD, but in the longer term, the USD has been tracing out an unmistakably bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows since May 2011…
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