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Image | The Arrival of Japan’s Sunset
The Arrival of Japan’s Sunset
by Gregor Macdonald

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled. ~ Richard Feynman

Waiting for Japan's economy to make a strong recovery has been an ongoing game since 1990. Shall we play that game one more time?
The Arrival of Japan’s Sunset
 by Gregor Macdonald

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled. ~ Richard Feynman

Waiting for Japan's economy to make a strong recovery has been an ongoing game since 1990. Shall we play that game one more time?
Image | Time to Choose
Time to Choose
by Adam Taggart

Whether you’re aware of it or not, a great battle is being waged around us.

It is a war of two opposing narratives: the future of our economy and our standard of living.

The dominant story, championed by flotillas of press releases and parading talking heads, tells an inspiring tale of recovery and return to growth. 

The other side, less visible but with a full armament of high-caliber data, tells a very different story. One of growing instability, downside risk, and inequality.

As different as they are in substance, they both share one fundamental prediction – and this is why you should care: This battle is about to break. And when it does, one side will turn out to be much more ‘right’ than the other. The time for action has arrived. To position yourself in the direction of the break you think is most likely to happen.

It’s time to choose a side.
Time to Choose
 by Adam Taggart

Whether you’re aware of it or not, a great battle is being waged around us.

It is a war of two opposing narratives: the future of our economy and our standard of living.

The dominant story, championed by flotillas of press releases and parading talking heads, tells an inspiring tale of recovery and return to growth. 

The other side, less visible but with a full armament of high-caliber data, tells a very different story. One of growing instability, downside risk, and inequality.

As different as they are in substance, they both share one fundamental prediction – and this is why you should care: This battle is about to break. And when it does, one side will turn out to be much more ‘right’ than the other. The time for action has arrived. To position yourself in the direction of the break you think is most likely to happen.

It’s time to choose a side.
Image | Off the Cuff: Disturbing Data
Off the Cuff: Disturbing Data
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Adam discuss:
Off the Cuff: Disturbing Data
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Adam discuss:
Image | QE for Dummies
QE for Dummies
by Chris Martenson

A PeakProsperity.com reader recently lamented:

I have been trying to get my head around the mechanism of QE. Not being an economist or experienced investor I don't really understand a lot of the jargon. The usual simple definition of QE as "thin air money printing" does not satisfy my need for understanding either. Have hunted for a description of QE for dummies that leaves me feeling like I get it, but with no luck. My difficulty is in understanding how thin air money gets into circulation.

So I'm going to do my best to answer this plea in as intuitive and straightforward a manner as I can. I, too, share the need to understand the mechanism of a process in order to feel like I have a grasp of it.  And I think it's critically important to understand QE (also known by its full name, "quantitative easing") and what it really represents. Because it is, without a doubt, one of the largest market-shaping forces of our times.
QE for Dummies
 by Chris Martenson

A PeakProsperity.com reader recently lamented:

I have been trying to get my head around the mechanism of QE. Not being an economist or experienced investor I don't really understand a lot of the jargon. The usual simple definition of QE as "thin air money printing" does not satisfy my need for understanding either. Have hunted for a description of QE for dummies that leaves me feeling like I get it, but with no luck. My difficulty is in understanding how thin air money gets into circulation.

So I'm going to do my best to answer this plea in as intuitive and straightforward a manner as I can. I, too, share the need to understand the mechanism of a process in order to feel like I have a grasp of it.  And I think it's critically important to understand QE (also known by its full name, "quantitative easing") and what it really represents. Because it is, without a doubt, one of the largest market-shaping forces of our times.
Image | James Turk: Central Banks are Losing the War to Suppress Gold & Silver Prices
James Turk: Central Banks are Losing the War to Suppress Gold & Silver Prices
by Chris Martenson

My guess is that 2013 and 2014 are going to be big up year for the precious metals, but we still have to contend with the central planners and the various government policies, which have been actively trying to keep the gold and silver prices from reaching fair value. The central planners are losing the war. They may win an occasional battle or two, but they’re losing the war, and eventually gold and silver are going to go higher.

So predicts James Turk, founder and Chairman of GoldMoney.com.

From James’ perspective, gold is not an investment. It’s a sterile asset, meaning it does not generate income. What it is, is money. Its function is to store wealth.

But money, like investments, can be overvalued or undervalued. And what we’re witnessing on the world stage is a gross mispricing of money as central banks engage in depreciation of their fiat currencies via inflation (i.e., money printing).

The process causes a transfer of wealth from those holding overvalued money to those who hold undervalued money. That’s what’s been going on for the past decade as the price of gold has steadily marched upwards versus fiat currencies.

But this process is not efficient. Mass awareness of this wealth transfer is low, so confidence in paper currencies is still high, supporting their perceived value. Market intervention by central banks and other parties conspires to keep the prices of precious metals artificially low and suspect.

This maintains an arbitrage for individuals to buy gold and silver at a discount to true value, which James believes will be slowly realized in full over the next several years as the bull market in precious metals approaches its third and final phase.

A factor in this rise will be the increasing fragmentation of coordination among the central banks. Increasingly, central banks outside the influence of the U.S. Federal Reserve are treating the precious metals as true money, and becoming net buyers of bullion for their reserves.

Ultimately, Turk predicts the price of gold will move to somewhere between $8,000-10,000/oz and that we'll see even higher price appreciation in silver.
James Turk: Central Banks are Losing the War to Suppress Gold & Silver Prices
 by Chris Martenson

My guess is that 2013 and 2014 are going to be big up year for the precious metals, but we still have to contend with the central planners and the various government policies, which have been actively trying to keep the gold and silver prices from reaching fair value. The central planners are losing the war. They may win an occasional battle or two, but they’re losing the war, and eventually gold and silver are going to go higher.

So predicts James Turk, founder and Chairman of GoldMoney.com.

From James’ perspective, gold is not an investment. It’s a sterile asset, meaning it does not generate income. What it is, is money. Its function is to store wealth.

But money, like investments, can be overvalued or undervalued. And what we’re witnessing on the world stage is a gross mispricing of money as central banks engage in depreciation of their fiat currencies via inflation (i.e., money printing).

The process causes a transfer of wealth from those holding overvalued money to those who hold undervalued money. That’s what’s been going on for the past decade as the price of gold has steadily marched upwards versus fiat currencies.

But this process is not efficient. Mass awareness of this wealth transfer is low, so confidence in paper currencies is still high, supporting their perceived value. Market intervention by central banks and other parties conspires to keep the prices of precious metals artificially low and suspect.

This maintains an arbitrage for individuals to buy gold and silver at a discount to true value, which James believes will be slowly realized in full over the next several years as the bull market in precious metals approaches its third and final phase.

A factor in this rise will be the increasing fragmentation of coordination among the central banks. Increasingly, central banks outside the influence of the U.S. Federal Reserve are treating the precious metals as true money, and becoming net buyers of bullion for their reserves.

Ultimately, Turk predicts the price of gold will move to somewhere between $8,000-10,000/oz and that we'll see even higher price appreciation in silver.
Image | Off the Cuff: “Hand-to-Mouth” Tightness Seen in Silver Inventories
Off the Cuff: “Hand-to-Mouth” Tightness Seen in Silver Inventories
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Ted Butler discuss:

  • Germany's Gold Grab
    • What impact with the reserve repatriation by the Bundesbank have?
  • Silver's Screaming Fundamentals
    • The size of the silver market is TINY
  • The Future Price of Silver
    • Betting on higher prices still seems the smart move here
Off the Cuff: “Hand-to-Mouth” Tightness Seen in Silver Inventories
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off the Cuff podcast, Chris and Ted Butler discuss:

  • Germany's Gold Grab
    • What impact with the reserve repatriation by the Bundesbank have?
  • Silver's Screaming Fundamentals
    • The size of the silver market is TINY
  • The Future Price of Silver
    • Betting on higher prices still seems the smart move here
Image | They’re Not Even Trying to Hide It Anymore
They’re Not Even Trying to Hide It Anymore
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

When asked why I think that the price of gold is manipulated to keep its price within an acceptable band to central planners, I will respond with the quip 'because they can.'

It's really very simple.  If we know that the Fed is extremely concerned about the health of the financial markets and maintaining confidence in them and the major institutions, and it has already stepped way over the line by targeting the price of money, bonds, and equities, it's pretty much a guarantee that the Fed has got its eyes on and hands in everything.
They’re Not Even Trying to Hide It Anymore
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

When asked why I think that the price of gold is manipulated to keep its price within an acceptable band to central planners, I will respond with the quip 'because they can.'

It's really very simple.  If we know that the Fed is extremely concerned about the health of the financial markets and maintaining confidence in them and the major institutions, and it has already stepped way over the line by targeting the price of money, bonds, and equities, it's pretty much a guarantee that the Fed has got its eyes on and hands in everything.
Image | David Collum: We’re Headed for a Showdown
David Collum: We’re Headed for a Showdown
by David Collum

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains,
The jails are made of tin.
And you can walk right out again,
As soon as you are in.

Fresh from releasing his exhaustive and excellent Year In Review last week, Dave Collum sits down with Chris to discuss the key developments of 2012 in detail.

David Collum: We’re Headed for a Showdown
 by David Collum

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains,
The jails are made of tin.
And you can walk right out again,
As soon as you are in.

Fresh from releasing his exhaustive and excellent Year In Review last week, Dave Collum sits down with Chris to discuss the key developments of 2012 in detail.

Image | 2012 Year in Review
2012 Year in Review
by David Collum

Background

I was just trying to figure it all out.

~ Michael Burry, hedge fund manager

Every December, I write a Year in Review that has now found a home at Chris Martenson’s website PeakProsperity.com.1,2,3 What started as a simple summary intended for a couple dozen people morphed over time into a much more detailed account that accrued over 25,000 clicks last year.4 'Year in Review' is a bit of a misnomer in that it is both a collage of what happened, plus a smattering of issues that are on my radar right now. As to why people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods I can only offer a few thoughts.

For starters, in 33 years of investing with a decidedly undiversified portfolio, I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars. For the 13 years beginning 01/01/00—the 13 toughest investing years of the new millennium!—I have been able to compound my personal wealth at an 11% annualized rate. This holds up well against the pros. I am also fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity and seem to be a congenital contrarian. I also have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory—i.e., free market economics—since the late 1990s.4

Each review begins with a highly personalized analysis of my efforts to get through another year of investing followed by a more holistic overview of what is now a 33-year quest for a ramen-soup-free retirement. These details may be instructive for those interested in my approach to investing. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm. Everything can be found here.5

2012 Year in Review
 by David Collum

Background

I was just trying to figure it all out.

~ Michael Burry, hedge fund manager

Every December, I write a Year in Review that has now found a home at Chris Martenson’s website PeakProsperity.com.1,2,3 What started as a simple summary intended for a couple dozen people morphed over time into a much more detailed account that accrued over 25,000 clicks last year.4 'Year in Review' is a bit of a misnomer in that it is both a collage of what happened, plus a smattering of issues that are on my radar right now. As to why people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods I can only offer a few thoughts.

For starters, in 33 years of investing with a decidedly undiversified portfolio, I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars. For the 13 years beginning 01/01/00—the 13 toughest investing years of the new millennium!—I have been able to compound my personal wealth at an 11% annualized rate. This holds up well against the pros. I am also fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity and seem to be a congenital contrarian. I also have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory—i.e., free market economics—since the late 1990s.4

Each review begins with a highly personalized analysis of my efforts to get through another year of investing followed by a more holistic overview of what is now a 33-year quest for a ramen-soup-free retirement. These details may be instructive for those interested in my approach to investing. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm. Everything can be found here.5

Image | It’s Better to Be a Year Early Than a Day Late
It’s Better to Be a Year Early Than a Day Late
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Don't bet against gold, especially right now
  • Collective thinking and shifting baselines are putting us in great danger of a surprise we're not prepared for
  • When the next disruptive event happens, it will happen faster than the system can react
  • Where I recommend allocating capital right now

If you have not yet read QE 4: Folks This Ain't Normal, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

My Thoughts on Gold

Bluntly, anybody selling their gold here does not understand what is happening.  These are the most extraordinary and unique times that anybody has witnessed because the entire world is engaged in an attempt to print our way to prosperity.

Maybe that will come to pass, but the odds very much do not favor that outcome.  It's never worked before, and I really have not yet seen any articulate description of why it might work this time.  From a betting perspective, it's like facing a roulette wheel where every slot is black except for that solitary green bin.  People selling gold here are placing their chips on green.

But I don't really think that gold's current market price or recent behaviors have anything useful to do with gold's value here.  As I noted in a recent Insider, in the run up to the QE4 announcement and then in the days right after, some entity has been selling literally thousands and thousands of gold contracts into the thinly traded overnight markets so rapidly that we have to use millisecond charting to see it for what it is.  Again, there is no other legitimate explanation for this activity of which I am aware besides having an intent of pushing the price down.

Whether there is some motivation for this activity besides 'making money,' I remain convinced that the gold market, like many others, is no longer sending useful price signals. Instead it is telling us that some entity has found it useful to sell thousands of gold contracts all at once.

The interesting part of this story is that this has been the most sustained, intensive, and yet ineffective gold-selling that I have yet seen.  In the past, such bear raids, as they are called, would have resulted in a sharply lower gold price.  Right now, that has not yet really happened. 

I am wondering if a big up move is not right around the corner for gold.  I can tell you that if even one fourth of the recent QE effort was announced five years ago, markets would have exploded and gold would have absolutely launched…

It’s Better to Be a Year Early Than a Day Late
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Don't bet against gold, especially right now
  • Collective thinking and shifting baselines are putting us in great danger of a surprise we're not prepared for
  • When the next disruptive event happens, it will happen faster than the system can react
  • Where I recommend allocating capital right now

If you have not yet read QE 4: Folks This Ain't Normal, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

My Thoughts on Gold

Bluntly, anybody selling their gold here does not understand what is happening.  These are the most extraordinary and unique times that anybody has witnessed because the entire world is engaged in an attempt to print our way to prosperity.

Maybe that will come to pass, but the odds very much do not favor that outcome.  It's never worked before, and I really have not yet seen any articulate description of why it might work this time.  From a betting perspective, it's like facing a roulette wheel where every slot is black except for that solitary green bin.  People selling gold here are placing their chips on green.

But I don't really think that gold's current market price or recent behaviors have anything useful to do with gold's value here.  As I noted in a recent Insider, in the run up to the QE4 announcement and then in the days right after, some entity has been selling literally thousands and thousands of gold contracts into the thinly traded overnight markets so rapidly that we have to use millisecond charting to see it for what it is.  Again, there is no other legitimate explanation for this activity of which I am aware besides having an intent of pushing the price down.

Whether there is some motivation for this activity besides 'making money,' I remain convinced that the gold market, like many others, is no longer sending useful price signals. Instead it is telling us that some entity has found it useful to sell thousands of gold contracts all at once.

The interesting part of this story is that this has been the most sustained, intensive, and yet ineffective gold-selling that I have yet seen.  In the past, such bear raids, as they are called, would have resulted in a sharply lower gold price.  Right now, that has not yet really happened. 

I am wondering if a big up move is not right around the corner for gold.  I can tell you that if even one fourth of the recent QE effort was announced five years ago, markets would have exploded and gold would have absolutely launched…

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