Preparing for a Future Defined by Peak Oil

Preparing for a Future Defined by Peak Oil

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Executive Summary

• How the math shows that the Bakken will not make us “energy independent”
• Why the harsh constraints of Peak Oil are a near certainty for the US and its economic growth
• What a world impacted by Peak Oil will likely be like
• Why 2013 looks like the year Peak Oil will become globally acknowledged
• What you should be doing (with your investments and lifestyle) in advance of the full force of Peak Oil’s arrival

Part I: Dangerous Ideas

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: Preparing for a Future Defined by Peak Oil

In Part I of this report , we discussed the odd push by some media outlets and Citibank to declare Peak Oil ‘over’ based on the exciting results coming from the Bakken shale oil play. While I, too, think the shale oil plays are exciting, and they certainly will help to mitigate the impact of Peak Oil to some extent, the idea that we can now relegate Peak Oil to the dustbin is a dangerous idea.

Since I have been asked by many of you to analyze the Bakken results, I will do so here with enough context and data to estimate its impact on future oil prices. Then we’ll cover the implications of all this on our responses and actions.

Some Background

Here’s a quick tour of what the Bakken formation is and how it is drilled. 

The Bakken is one of many hydrocarbon-producing formations in the Williston Basin, a sedimentary basin covering parts of three states and two provinces.

The total layer of sediments in the basin can be up to 15,000 ft thick, and within that, the Bakken itself reaches a maximum thickness of about 150 ft., but is thinner in most areas. The depth to the top of the Bakken can vary from a few thousand feet in Canada to more than 10,000 feet in the deeper areas in North Dakota.

(Source) 

The drill target might only be 150 feet thick (that’s the maximum), but it covers a huge area of roughly 200,000 square miles. So the potential is truly gigantic. However, the actual producing area is, in reality, a lot smaller, covering perhaps 20,000 square miles. (The interactive map linked below illustrates this point