Podcast
Why a Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Executive Summary
- A plethora of technical indicators show a breakdown is in progress
- The key charts you need to be aware of
- Time to place your bets: higher equity prices or higher interest rates?
- Why a defense strategy in the near term is critical for those holding stocks and bonds
Part I: Are We Heading for Another 2008?
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Why a Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable
In Part I, we summarized the global financial meltdown of 2008 as recognition that the collateral beneath an enormous inverted pyramid of leveraged debt had vanished, while all the monetary and fiscal tricks of central banks and governments failed to sustain the illusion of sufficient collateral.
Once again we find that massive, sustained intervention in global financial markets is being touted as successful – everything has been “fixed,” markets have been “stabilized,” and a global “recovery” is well underway,
If we believe this, we might be exposed to a dramatic downside should 2012 turn out to be another 2008, when markets realized that intervention did not create collateral, but instead a temporary illusion of sufficient collateral.
Why A Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithWhy a Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Executive Summary
- A plethora of technical indicators show a breakdown is in progress
- The key charts you need to be aware of
- Time to place your bets: higher equity prices or higher interest rates?
- Why a defense strategy in the near term is critical for those holding stocks and bonds
Part I: Are We Heading for Another 2008?
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Why a Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable
In Part I, we summarized the global financial meltdown of 2008 as recognition that the collateral beneath an enormous inverted pyramid of leveraged debt had vanished, while all the monetary and fiscal tricks of central banks and governments failed to sustain the illusion of sufficient collateral.
Once again we find that massive, sustained intervention in global financial markets is being touted as successful – everything has been “fixed,” markets have been “stabilized,” and a global “recovery” is well underway,
If we believe this, we might be exposed to a dramatic downside should 2012 turn out to be another 2008, when markets realized that intervention did not create collateral, but instead a temporary illusion of sufficient collateral.
Nearly every week, PeakProsperity.com enrolled members enjoy a fresh podcast of "Off The Cuff," an informal discussion on the markets between Chris and Mike "Mish" Shedlock, publisher of the extremely popular economic blog Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.
We're making this week's Off the Cuff podcast available to the public-at-large to build awareness for an important cause that Mish is championing. Earlier this week, he shared with readers that his wife Joanne suffers from ALS, better known as Lou Gehrig's Disease.
After several years of juggling an intense publishing schedule (describing Mish as 'prolific' is a gross understatement) while caring for his wife on his own, he's created an online raffle as a means to raise funds for important ALS research, patient care, and education. We support his efforts and wish Mish and Joanne all the best.
Click here to learn more about the raffle.
In this week's Off the Cuff, Chris and Mish look at the impact of the recently-released Fed minutes and the worsening situation in Europe (no, the problems there haven't gone away).
Off the Cuff with Mike “Mish” Shedlock
by Chris MartensonNearly every week, PeakProsperity.com enrolled members enjoy a fresh podcast of "Off The Cuff," an informal discussion on the markets between Chris and Mike "Mish" Shedlock, publisher of the extremely popular economic blog Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.
We're making this week's Off the Cuff podcast available to the public-at-large to build awareness for an important cause that Mish is championing. Earlier this week, he shared with readers that his wife Joanne suffers from ALS, better known as Lou Gehrig's Disease.
After several years of juggling an intense publishing schedule (describing Mish as 'prolific' is a gross understatement) while caring for his wife on his own, he's created an online raffle as a means to raise funds for important ALS research, patient care, and education. We support his efforts and wish Mish and Joanne all the best.
Click here to learn more about the raffle.
In this week's Off the Cuff, Chris and Mish look at the impact of the recently-released Fed minutes and the worsening situation in Europe (no, the problems there haven't gone away).
Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up
by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Executive Summary
- Three attractive sectors to invest in early as we enter the post-oil economy
- The transition away from oil has already begun — which energy sectors are leading?
- The key trends over the next five years
- How scarcity — and inflation — will manifest in this next phase
Part I: The Race for BTUs
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up
Hopefully readers will not be too shocked by my openhandedness towards a cyclical global expansion — restrained by oil for sure, but made possible by several years of continued reflationary monetary policy and the ability of humans to tactically access new sources of energy.
Let’s remember that a tremendous amount of pain, in industrial terms, has already been taken by the OECD over the past 7 years as it shed nearly 15% of its oil demand. Readers will also recall my previous essays, in which I warned that an export boom was continuing to unfold in the United States. And readers of my work over the past several years know I’ve been adamant that the 5 billion people in the developing world have plowed right through the 2008 financial crisis increasing their reliance on coal.
Thus, I identify three areas of investment as the world stumbles forward with poor growth in the OECD, restrained by oil but becoming increasingly desperate to find some — any — additional energy resources. These are not stock recommendations, nor am I making a timing call as to when to invest in these areas. Rather, these are indicative of three means by which an investor could participate in emerging, secular trends over the next 2 to 4 years.
Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldPromising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up
by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Executive Summary
- Three attractive sectors to invest in early as we enter the post-oil economy
- The transition away from oil has already begun — which energy sectors are leading?
- The key trends over the next five years
- How scarcity — and inflation — will manifest in this next phase
Part I: The Race for BTUs
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up
Hopefully readers will not be too shocked by my openhandedness towards a cyclical global expansion — restrained by oil for sure, but made possible by several years of continued reflationary monetary policy and the ability of humans to tactically access new sources of energy.
Let’s remember that a tremendous amount of pain, in industrial terms, has already been taken by the OECD over the past 7 years as it shed nearly 15% of its oil demand. Readers will also recall my previous essays, in which I warned that an export boom was continuing to unfold in the United States. And readers of my work over the past several years know I’ve been adamant that the 5 billion people in the developing world have plowed right through the 2008 financial crisis increasing their reliance on coal.
Thus, I identify three areas of investment as the world stumbles forward with poor growth in the OECD, restrained by oil but becoming increasingly desperate to find some — any — additional energy resources. These are not stock recommendations, nor am I making a timing call as to when to invest in these areas. Rather, these are indicative of three means by which an investor could participate in emerging, secular trends over the next 2 to 4 years.
I have just returned from a trip to Canada, where I had the chance to present the core ideas of the Crash Course to audiences in Alberta and the city of Guelph. The message was well received in both locations, and I am heartened to see the great work happening across Canada, to not only learn about but act on issues related to the intersection of the economy, energy, and other natural resources.
It was also my distinct pleasure to meet several long-time subscribers along the way, and to chat with you all (hello again!). The most typical refrain I heard from you was why don’t more people see things this way? That is something we’ll be covering in greater detail here in the future, especially once the new website is up and launched and we have a better platform and venue for offering such material. I will note that one of the more important elements of our weekend seminar offerings is on exactly this subject. Our only other seminar being offered in 2012 is on the last weekend of June at Kripalu, and it would be a pleasure to see you there.
On to the markets and other thoughts…
Doing It Right in Canada
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonI have just returned from a trip to Canada, where I had the chance to present the core ideas of the Crash Course to audiences in Alberta and the city of Guelph. The message was well received in both locations, and I am heartened to see the great work happening across Canada, to not only learn about but act on issues related to the intersection of the economy, energy, and other natural resources.
It was also my distinct pleasure to meet several long-time subscribers along the way, and to chat with you all (hello again!). The most typical refrain I heard from you was why don’t more people see things this way? That is something we’ll be covering in greater detail here in the future, especially once the new website is up and launched and we have a better platform and venue for offering such material. I will note that one of the more important elements of our weekend seminar offerings is on exactly this subject. Our only other seminar being offered in 2012 is on the last weekend of June at Kripalu, and it would be a pleasure to see you there.
On to the markets and other thoughts…