Podcast
by
Gregor Macdonald
Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here
by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Monday, November 21, 2011
Executive Summary
- The outlook for precious metals will be heavily influenced by the steps the European Central Bank (ECB) takes in the near future.
- Understanding the likely price trajectories of the precious metals whether or not central banks resume quantitative easing (QE, a.k.a. money printing)
- The specific price targets for both gold and silver under the most likely scenarios
- Underscoring the gravity of our current situation
Part I – The New Price Era of Oil and Gold
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II – Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here
As readers now understand, I am not currently a supporter of higher gold prices as a function of inflation risk. Instead, my view is that we must first move through the various iterations of crisis, collapse, debt default, instability, and policy panic before gold attaches itself to inflation. Yes, I agree with the Paul Brodsky thesis (and the FOFOA thesis) that the foundations of future inflation have already been laid. But it’s also my view that for a severe inflation to unfold, there has to be a collapse in currency demand itself. It would also be necessary for global industrial production to have collapsed down to much lower levels to provide sufficient scarcity of goods. Mind you, I see both of these conditions — rejection of currencies and industrial collapse — as high risk. The two maps I offer here include them.
Mapping the Price Future of Gold and Silver
The first price path I want to share with you is called The Grand QE Cycle. It begins with the resolution to the most pressing question facing markets right here, right now, today: Will the ECB federalize all Eurozone debt?
Based on my own analysis and in consultation with contacts, I concluded for myself weeks ago that the crisis in the EU was becoming increasingly binary. Indeed, it is now fully binary. Either the ECB guides to a new charter or mandate, allowing it to buy unlimited quantities of EU debt, or it follows through on its hard-money threats — and the sovereign debt, which forms the core asset of pension funds, banks, institutions across the EU, will become distressed debt, forcing a cataclysmic purge.
Because this urgent question has not been definitively answered as yet, gold is making its way in volatile fashion towards a price of…
Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldUnderstanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here
by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Monday, November 21, 2011
Executive Summary
- The outlook for precious metals will be heavily influenced by the steps the European Central Bank (ECB) takes in the near future.
- Understanding the likely price trajectories of the precious metals whether or not central banks resume quantitative easing (QE, a.k.a. money printing)
- The specific price targets for both gold and silver under the most likely scenarios
- Underscoring the gravity of our current situation
Part I – The New Price Era of Oil and Gold
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II – Understanding Where Gold and Silver Go from Here
As readers now understand, I am not currently a supporter of higher gold prices as a function of inflation risk. Instead, my view is that we must first move through the various iterations of crisis, collapse, debt default, instability, and policy panic before gold attaches itself to inflation. Yes, I agree with the Paul Brodsky thesis (and the FOFOA thesis) that the foundations of future inflation have already been laid. But it’s also my view that for a severe inflation to unfold, there has to be a collapse in currency demand itself. It would also be necessary for global industrial production to have collapsed down to much lower levels to provide sufficient scarcity of goods. Mind you, I see both of these conditions — rejection of currencies and industrial collapse — as high risk. The two maps I offer here include them.
Mapping the Price Future of Gold and Silver
The first price path I want to share with you is called The Grand QE Cycle. It begins with the resolution to the most pressing question facing markets right here, right now, today: Will the ECB federalize all Eurozone debt?
Based on my own analysis and in consultation with contacts, I concluded for myself weeks ago that the crisis in the EU was becoming increasingly binary. Indeed, it is now fully binary. Either the ECB guides to a new charter or mandate, allowing it to buy unlimited quantities of EU debt, or it follows through on its hard-money threats — and the sovereign debt, which forms the core asset of pension funds, banks, institutions across the EU, will become distressed debt, forcing a cataclysmic purge.
Because this urgent question has not been definitively answered as yet, gold is making its way in volatile fashion towards a price of…
by
Aaron M
[Note: today's WSID topic has been a long time in coming. Firearms can be a sensitive subject, but worth considering for many when planning for food procurement or home/personal defense in a changing future. We sought an author who could provide an introduction to the subject in as conscientious, fact-oriented, and knowledgeable a manner as possible, and are grateful to community member Aaron Moyer for doing so. Aaron is a longtime active poster on this site, the founder of our Definitive Firearms thread, and an active-duty serviceman in the US armed forces. –Adam]
This is one of the more difficult pieces of writing I’ve done to date. There are various reasons why this topic is difficult to start; everyone has a different idea of what they need, their level of commitment, legal concerns, political pre-dispositions and so forth. It’s easy to talk about firearms as a ‘topic’ – you can comment on their particulars, weigh the advantages and disadvantages and wax philosophical about what would be the best choice for a given situation — but that’s not what this edition is about.
This piece is to help navigate the process that starts once you’ve decided you’d like to purchase a firearm, and leads to the ongoing process of establishing proficiency, maintaining safety and building skill.
Selecting a Firearm
by Aaron M[Note: today's WSID topic has been a long time in coming. Firearms can be a sensitive subject, but worth considering for many when planning for food procurement or home/personal defense in a changing future. We sought an author who could provide an introduction to the subject in as conscientious, fact-oriented, and knowledgeable a manner as possible, and are grateful to community member Aaron Moyer for doing so. Aaron is a longtime active poster on this site, the founder of our Definitive Firearms thread, and an active-duty serviceman in the US armed forces. –Adam]
This is one of the more difficult pieces of writing I’ve done to date. There are various reasons why this topic is difficult to start; everyone has a different idea of what they need, their level of commitment, legal concerns, political pre-dispositions and so forth. It’s easy to talk about firearms as a ‘topic’ – you can comment on their particulars, weigh the advantages and disadvantages and wax philosophical about what would be the best choice for a given situation — but that’s not what this edition is about.
This piece is to help navigate the process that starts once you’ve decided you’d like to purchase a firearm, and leads to the ongoing process of establishing proficiency, maintaining safety and building skill.
by
charleshughsmith
The Future of Work
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Executive Summary
- Many of today’s current job positions will vanish as the debt that has made them possible retraces
- Future demand for work will come from non-financial sectors
- Cost management will re-assert it’s importance on par with income growth
- Non-market and hybrid work models will grow to employ many more people than they do now
- Participation in social and capital networks (both physical and virtual) will become increasingly valuable
Part I
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II
The Vulnerability of Our Debt-Dependent Workforce
In Part I of The Future of Work, we examined the future trend of the US economy and found that ever-expanding debt has been the “engine” that has powered growth (as measured by GDP, gross domestic product) over the past 30 years. The productivity of debt has now fallen to zero, or perhaps even less than zero, which means that increasing debt no longer adds to GDP.
The structural weakness of this model is reflected by the diminishing number of jobs, and the declining ratio of payroll and employment to population and per capita measures of the economy.
Simply put, an economy that has become increasingly dependent on debt for its growth no longer creates jobs. Rather, the cost of servicing all that debt acts as unproductive friction.
The Future of Work
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithThe Future of Work
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Executive Summary
- Many of today’s current job positions will vanish as the debt that has made them possible retraces
- Future demand for work will come from non-financial sectors
- Cost management will re-assert it’s importance on par with income growth
- Non-market and hybrid work models will grow to employ many more people than they do now
- Participation in social and capital networks (both physical and virtual) will become increasingly valuable
Part I
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II
The Vulnerability of Our Debt-Dependent Workforce
In Part I of The Future of Work, we examined the future trend of the US economy and found that ever-expanding debt has been the “engine” that has powered growth (as measured by GDP, gross domestic product) over the past 30 years. The productivity of debt has now fallen to zero, or perhaps even less than zero, which means that increasing debt no longer adds to GDP.
The structural weakness of this model is reflected by the diminishing number of jobs, and the declining ratio of payroll and employment to population and per capita measures of the economy.
Simply put, an economy that has become increasingly dependent on debt for its growth no longer creates jobs. Rather, the cost of servicing all that debt acts as unproductive friction.
I happen to be in Madrid, Spain at the moment, and I have a few observations. I wandered extensively this morning and noted that Madrid is just the same as any other big city – no surprise there – with crowded streets, a lack of parking, and cars everywhere. While I was envious of all the small cars, especially those with diesel engines (not available in the US, for some strange reason) that probably get close to 60 mpg without involving the massive technology of a hybrid, I only noted a single bicyclist braving the traffic flows.
by
Gregor Macdonald
How To Position For the Next Great Oil Squeeze
by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Monday, November 14, 2011
Executive Summary
- Why smaller, independent oil companies should thrive as America struggles to increase domestic supply
- A breakdown of often-touted ‘new sources of domestic supply’ (shale oil, kerogen, offshore fields, other Western Hemisphere finds) and why they won’t come close to meeting US demand needs
- How to hedge against the next great oil price spike
- The wisdom of adopting a slower-based oil consumption lifestyle now
Part I – Selling the Oil Illusion, American Style
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II – How To Position For the Next Great Oil Squeeze
Using the latest data from EIA Washington, I made the following chart of actual imports of crude oil against production. This is a simple and direct accounting of what can become a rather complex topic filled with obfuscation and bad math. For example, by counting biofuels, ethanol, natural gas liquids, and the use of our own natural gas inputs to refine crude oil into gasoline, you can produce rather misleading accounts of net imports, such as this piece from EIA Washington titled How Dependent Are We on Foreign Oil?
Just so that we are very clear on the facts, natural gas liquids (NGLs) contain only 65% of the btu of oil, and, of course, they are not oil. As Jeff Rubin likes to say, “NGLs can go straight to your butane cigarette lighter, not your automobile.” But by adding NGLs and ethanol to “oil supply,” we can delude ourselves into thinking that the US produces not 5.596 mbpd of crude oil, but rather 10.037 mbpd of liquids.
Despite any legitimate conversation we could have about the usefulness of various energy resources, it would be silly to say (for example) that “we need not worry about expensive oil and its effect on the economy, because we can just switch to ethanol.” The vastly smaller btu content of biofuel feedstock makes its inclusion in the accounting unhelpful, to say the least. As one Oil Drum commenter said to my previously cited post:
If the goal is to highlight the decline of crude oil production over time then including all other fuel sources is improper. You can’t project a future production trend of one commodity by including other commodities in the analysis.
(Source)
Yes, precisely. To that point, let’s now look at the chart.
How To Position For the Next Great Oil Squeeze
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldHow To Position For the Next Great Oil Squeeze
by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Monday, November 14, 2011
Executive Summary
- Why smaller, independent oil companies should thrive as America struggles to increase domestic supply
- A breakdown of often-touted ‘new sources of domestic supply’ (shale oil, kerogen, offshore fields, other Western Hemisphere finds) and why they won’t come close to meeting US demand needs
- How to hedge against the next great oil price spike
- The wisdom of adopting a slower-based oil consumption lifestyle now
Part I – Selling the Oil Illusion, American Style
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II – How To Position For the Next Great Oil Squeeze
Using the latest data from EIA Washington, I made the following chart of actual imports of crude oil against production. This is a simple and direct accounting of what can become a rather complex topic filled with obfuscation and bad math. For example, by counting biofuels, ethanol, natural gas liquids, and the use of our own natural gas inputs to refine crude oil into gasoline, you can produce rather misleading accounts of net imports, such as this piece from EIA Washington titled How Dependent Are We on Foreign Oil?
Just so that we are very clear on the facts, natural gas liquids (NGLs) contain only 65% of the btu of oil, and, of course, they are not oil. As Jeff Rubin likes to say, “NGLs can go straight to your butane cigarette lighter, not your automobile.” But by adding NGLs and ethanol to “oil supply,” we can delude ourselves into thinking that the US produces not 5.596 mbpd of crude oil, but rather 10.037 mbpd of liquids.
Despite any legitimate conversation we could have about the usefulness of various energy resources, it would be silly to say (for example) that “we need not worry about expensive oil and its effect on the economy, because we can just switch to ethanol.” The vastly smaller btu content of biofuel feedstock makes its inclusion in the accounting unhelpful, to say the least. As one Oil Drum commenter said to my previously cited post:
If the goal is to highlight the decline of crude oil production over time then including all other fuel sources is improper. You can’t project a future production trend of one commodity by including other commodities in the analysis.
(Source)
Yes, precisely. To that point, let’s now look at the chart.
“The task of the real intellectual consists of analyzing illusions in order to discover their causes.” ~ Arthur Miller
by
karenbyler
Total 6303 items
