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Off the Cuff

Off The Cuff: Why The Market Has To Crash

The User's Profile Adam Taggart September 3, 2018
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In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Mish Shedlock discuss:

  • Tax-Cut Sugar-High
    • Corporate earning shoot the moon, but wages are little changed
  • Emerging Markets Deja-Vu
    • Crisis always follows borrowing too much debt from foreign creditors
  • Our Captive Political System
    • The democratic dream has long been suffocated by those who control DC
  • A Gold Suprise?
    • Historical precendent strong suggests gold will rebound sharply soon

As the markets hang at record highs (yet again), Chris and Mish revisit the data — are these levels justified by the data?

A fresh look makes it very hard to defend them. And while there are lots of reasons to support that conclusion, the core one is the same as it was prior to the 2008 crash: Too Much Bad Debt.

Chris:  I’m looking at FRED, the economic data out of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, at non-financial corporate business debt securities, one of my favorite things to look at. They've only updated it as far as June 7 so we’re missing July and August. But what we’re not seeing in this anywhere is a downtick in this line. Debt has just gone up like in a pretty much a straight line.

In fourth quarter of 2006, it was $3.1 trillion. today, it’s $6.2 trillion.

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