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Home Market Update: Overstimulated!
Economy

Market Update: Overstimulated!

The User's Profile Adam Taggart August 14, 2020
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The melt-up discussed last week remains in full force, with the S&P 500 hitting a new intraday all-time high on Wednesday.

Just to make sure we’re all clear on this: stocks are back to their highest prices BEFORE the coronavirus pandemic exploded. Before Q2 GDP plummeted -33% in the US. Before 50+ million Americans lost their jobs.

Thanks to the $trillions shoved into the system by both central banks and national legislatures since April, “investors” now believe the markets are a 1-way ride to forever-increasing wealth.

As the chart below from the National Association of Active Investment Managers shows, financial advisory firms that manage client capital are more fully-invested in the markets than at any other time in the past several years:

So everyone in “all-in” on the belief that the markets are both fully backstopped and rising higher from here.

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Top Comment

Stocks vs GDP show 4 distinct “shifts”:
1700-1850 at ~10
1850-1950 at ~40
1950-2000 at ~60
2000-2020 at ~140
Two points:
Stocks are having more “value” over time, or GDP is...
Anonymous Author by mki-2-2
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