Well, as we thought it might, the sell-off in stocks that started last week has continued.
The Tech-heavy Nasdaq is down -9% from last week’s highs, with high flyers down much more – like Apple down -17% and Tesla down nearly -30%.
Was last week the top? Are we headed down further, perhaps much further, going forward?
This week’s guest expert, Lance Roberts of RIA Advisors predicts that, while no one knows what will happen in the immediate short term, longer term risk in today’s markets remains squarely to the downside.
In his assessment, the -33% plunge back in February wasn’t actually a true correction, as valuation multiples for stocks didn’t come down nearly far enough to matter. And of course, these multiples are back at records highs now.
Additionally, key markers still show the system is at extreme levels of over-valuation. For example, during a correction, margin debt decreases dramatically (by being retired or via default), and yet today, margin debt balances are the second-highest in history:
Add in the uncertainty of the fast-approaching November US presidential election — including the increasing likelihood that no follow-on stimulus package will get passed before then — and the short-term is looking dicier, too.
by steve-in-georgia 
