Executive Summary
This episode discusses the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election held on November 5th, 2024, where Trump emerged as the winner. Chris and Paul analyze the market reactions, noting significant movements in the stock market and interest rates. They explore the implications of Trump’s victory on various sectors, including real estate and banking, and discuss the potential for increased inflation and economic growth. The conversation also touches on the importance of free speech, the role of Elon Musk in preserving it, and the need for accountability and transparency in government.
Market Reactions to Election Results
The episode highlights the immediate and significant reactions of the stock market to Trump’s election victory. The S&P 500 rose by 138 points, and major banks like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo saw substantial gains. The discussion suggests that the market anticipated a Trump win, leading to these movements. However, there is confusion about the consistency of these reactions, with some sectors like healthcare not experiencing the same level of enthusiasm.
Interest Rates and Real Estate
Interest rates spiked following the election, with the 10-year yield showing a significant increase. This rise in interest rates is expected to pressure companies with high leverage and impact the real estate market negatively. The conversation suggests that while higher yields could indicate economic growth, they also raise concerns about inflation.
Key Data
- The S&P 500 increased by 138 points following the election.
- JP Morgan’s stock rose by 10.3%, Wells Fargo by 11.6%, and Citibank by 8.5%.
- The 10-year yield jumped from 4.266 to 4.478.
- The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities has risen fivefold over the past two years.
Predictions
- Interest rates are expected to continue rising, potentially leading to higher inflation.
- The market’s path of least resistance is higher unless unexpected events occur.
- There may be good buying opportunities in the near future, particularly in gold.
Implications
- Higher interest rates could make housing less affordable unless wages increase.
- The commercial real estate sector may face a crisis due to rising delinquency rates and interest rates.
- Trump’s policies may lead to economic growth but also higher inflation.
Recommendations
- Individuals should continue to prepare for potential economic uncertainties by having emergency supplies and plans in place.
- Consider investing in undervalued sectors that may benefit from economic growth and deregulation.
- Stay informed and hold leaders accountable to ensure transparency and truth in governance.
by wotthecurtains 
