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Israel, The US and Iran: Context, Scenarios, Planning, and How This Could End Very Badly

Israel attacked Iran demonstrating superior targeting and air supremacy. Iran has now lobbed missiles into Tel Aviv. Both sides are probably not done and things could easily escalate from here. If that involves attacks on Iran’s oil refineries, or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then I will be issuing the mother of all Alerts.

The User's Profile Chris Martenson June 13, 2025
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Israel attacked Iran demonstrating superior targeting and air supremacy. Iran has now lobbed missiles into Tel Aviv. Both sides are probably not done and things could easily escalate from here. If that involves attacks on Iran’s oil refineries, or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then I will be issuing the mother of all Alerts.

View Part 1

Note: I spent all morning trying to rapidly make sense of the complexities surrounding Israel’s attack on Iran.  And there’s the big protests planned for this weekend in the U.S. called the “NoKings” protests.  In between recording parts I & II, I was informed that Iran had begun to rain down missiles into Tel Aviv.  This is now a highly dynamic and fluid situation.

The world’s on edge as Israel and Iran are now exchanging missile strikes, escalating tensions in the Middle East. This isn’t just a sudden flare-up; it’s been brewing for years, and I’ve been writing about the prospect of the US and Israel attacking Iran since at least 2013.  Not because I am all that prescient, but becuase I have a habit of believing them the first time.

The recent attacks by Israel on Iran, which Iran has now retaliated against, are not isolated incidents but part of a broader geopolitical chess game. The U.S. involvement, whether direct or through intelligence sharing, has been significant, despite claims of ignorance from Rubio and Trump.  Those are patently absurd and should be quickly dismissed as disingenuous.

The implications are dire. If this conflict escalates, we could see disruptions in global oil supplies, skyrocketing prices, and potentially even a broader economic collapse.  Netanyahu has promised to strike Iran’s oil refineries which is really a threat to destroy the global economy (once you understand the impact of spiking oil prices on precariously over=leveraged debt markets):

Or, even more worryingly, the Strait of Hormuz could be closed by Iran, which would push the world economy over the brink in pretty short order. 

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Looking for part 1?

Israel attacked Iran demonstrating superior targeting and air supremacy. Iran has now lobbed missiles into Tel Aviv. Both sides are probably not done and things could easily escalate from here. If that involves attacks on Iran’s oil refineries, or a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then I will be issuing the mother of all Alerts.

View Part 1
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Top Comment

Sigh. . . Where to begin?
I am definitely getting scenario fatigue - considering the massive potential for what might happen, and then worrying about it....
Anonymous Author by rector
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