Far too many indicators are screaming recession at the moment. But the “”markets”” remain bulletproof.
What’s the story there?
In this podcast, Paul Kiker and I discuss these indicators and range widely as we puzzle through how to position oneself given these crosscurrents.
One of the most profound indicators is a collection of indicators called the “Leading Economic Indicators” or the LEI. Since 1960 this indicator has reliably been associated with 100% of all called recessions when it is -5% or below.
Today it is well below that level. But the wall – nay, the flood – of liquidity that the central banks have been pouring on the “”markets”” has managed to keep a recession from being officially called.
But the mass layoffs and a declining social mood as middle class and lower economic rungs struggle with high inflation and a migrant invasion are more consistent with a recession. Tune in to hear more.
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