It seems pretty clear that the drumbeats of war are looming in the Middle East. Strangely, the mainstream media seem to be ignoring it, and the financial markets act unaware.
That can only mean one thing. Get ready.
For starters, should war break out, it will likely be a major Black Swan event. Obviously, economies and financial markets hate Black Swans. That means more volatility to follow.
So, what’s happening in the Middle East that’s got me so worried?
Shadow War
Currently, there is a shadow war going on between Israel and Iran. A lot of things are happening beneath the surface, especially in the espionage realm. Some incidents were reported but received less attention than they should given the gravity of the situation.
Weekly Military Actions in Syria
For quite a long while, Israel and Iran have been conducting shadow operations against each other. Every week, I hear about Israeli air and missile strikes in Syria against Iranian interests. That in itself is quite extraordinary. One recently hit the civilian airport in Damascus, it made the news.
Normally, when a nation’s military violates the airspace of another and conducts strikes, it is as good as declaring war. If frantic diplomatic efforts are not carried out successfully, a broader shooting war will follow. That this isn’t driving major headlines is worrisome.
Consider what happens near Taiwan. Whenever the Chinese air-force nears the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) of Taiwan, the media screams about it. China does not have to violate the actual airspace of Taiwan for reporters to fret impending war.
Yet Israel’s weekly violation of Syrian airspace to conduct military airstrikes results in actual combat deaths. But you hardly hear any mention of it.
Cyberwar
There have been more than rumors and speculation of an active cyberwar between the two nations for quite a long while. As the New York Times recently reported,
Millions of ordinary people in Iran and Israel recently found themselves caught in the crossfire of a cyberwar between their countries. In Tehran, a dentist drove around for hours in search of gasoline, waiting in long lines at four gas stations only to come away empty.
by abdollah-ebadi 
