The British Secret Intelligence Service, otherwise known as MI6, announced this week that China is the United Kingdom’s most pressing threat and top intelligence priority. MI6 chief Richard Moore described China’s intentions and capabilities as a “black box,” adding that his role is to help British leaders understand and “navigate this really complex, difficult relationship with the Chinese.”
The West’s relationship with China has been contentious and will likely become more so over the rest of this year. This week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office announced she’d be visiting Taiwan in August, although the White House couldn’t confirm that the trip would actually happen. President Biden went so far as to tell reporters that the U.S. military said Pelosi’s trip is “not a good idea.”
The statement has two implications.
First, it’s a sign of U.S. weakness. The Defense Department routinely defends Freedom of Navigation Patrols (FONOPs) through the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea as normal operations in international waters, despite Chinese protest and bluster. The U.S. establishment is considering an end to acknowledging the “one-China” policy. One former U.S. senior official said the policy had “outlived its usefulness,” and that the U.S. should treat Taiwan as an independent country. Canceling Pelosi’s trip signals that the Biden administration isn’t ready to make that leap, and probably for good reason.
The second implication is that U.S. officials may believe that China will respond in a strategically disadvantageous way. The Chinese Foreign Ministry made a typically vague but blunt warning this week.
by cmartenson 
