At this (late) stage of the game, we can expect almost anything and everything in the way of statistical miracles to be used in order to sustain the illusion that everything is fine.
One of the pieces that I have long been critical of is the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) use of their own measure of inflation, the so-called “GDP deflator,” to subtract from nominal GDP growth (giving us the reported ‘real’ growth). Of course, you have to subtract inflation from the measured goods and services, or else you are actually reporting inflation as growth.
The BEA does not use the CPI (consumer price index), which, flawed as it may be, is at least a consistently flawed measure. The deflator, on the other hand, either suffers from some sort of design flaw or is the most politically manipulated number on the planet.
I’ve covered this in some detail in the past and came to the conclusion that the deflator is just a plug number. That is, the deflator becomes whatever it needs to be in order to report a desired GDP number. The desired GDP is determined, and then the deflator is made to be whatever is required to make the data conform to that target.
Here’s why: Inflation is simply not something that bounces around from quarter to quarter, like a superball in a cement tank. In a country as large as the US during quiet inflationary periods, it’s a rather plodding affair, and that makes sense given the millions of price movements that comprise our large and complicated economy.
by doug 
