This pit in my stomach has been eating at me for three days. Something wicked is coming. I can sense it. I have been on an absolute tear trying to figure out the sources of my discomfort. Below I have a lot of data but it’s not complete. Something is missing and I haven’t figured it out. But no matter, I have enough assembled to issue this ALERT.
Again, an ALERT is a collection of facts and/or events that causes Evie and me to undertake new action(s). These are making us stock up, order seeds, get more fertilizer, and generally get ready for a large set of disruptions that may last for a long time.
The basic elements are:
- Federal Reserve being way behind the curve and likely about to be forced to perform emergency rate hikes
- Spiking interest rates
- Spiking oil and food prices
- Missing fertilizer production
- Putin’s exasperated tone over Ukraine
- The chorus of voices agitating for war over Ukraine
- My distrust of cornered political rats when their narratives fall apart as Covid is rapidly doing
The Fed is Cornered
First up, and most immediately, I think a market correction/crash is unavoidable at this point. The reason is because the Fed is going to be forced (kicking and screaming, as always) to raise rates.
Already the financial ecosystem has priced in a 100% chance of a 0.50% hike by March.
In fact, the Fed is already badly behind ‘the curve’ and is going to have to raise rates because the markets are going to force the Fed to do this.
Here’s the data. This is an astonishing chart. The blue line is the interest rate on 2-year US Treasury debt. The yellow/gold line is the current Fed “funds rate” which is what is being referred to when they say, “the Fed is going to raise rates.” This is the interest rate it will raise. The Fed funds rate.
Look at this chart!
The first thing I’d like to direct your attention to is that the blue line always “leads” the yellow line. Start by observing carefully from the left to the right. Note how that as the blue line ratchets up, the Fed is “behind the curve” and following along. As a laughing matter, they hold these super important meetings and pretend as if there’s some mystery as to whether or not the FOMC will vote to
by vidor-emeliabelfort 
