I admit, there are certainly some very interesting things unfolding over in the mortgage world, but as much as I think they are important and worth following, they are not the greatest risk we face at this time.
The mortgage fraud mess has the potential to trigger for the next down-cycle, but it’s not going to supply the majority of the fuel for the next conflagration.
For that we need to keep our attention riveted upon the looming currency wars.
This weekend at the IMF’s annual meeting, the world’s economic leaders tried to iron out some differences on the subject of currency manipulation and debasement. The bottom line is that everybody wants a cheaper currency; practically all major countries are actively pursuing cheap-currency policies. And tensions are building. Here’s how the US press described the outcome:
Finance Chiefs Fail to Resolve Currency Spat as G-20 Splits
Leaders of the world economy failed to narrow differences over currencies as they turned to the International Monetary Fund to calm frictions that are already sparking protectionism.
Exchange rates dominated the IMF’s annual meeting as Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and their counterparts split over whose policies are the biggest threat to the world economy on concern countries are relying on cheap currencies to aid growth. China was accused of undervaluing the yuan, while low U.S. interest rates were blamed by emerging markets for flooding them with capital. Brazil took aim at both the U.S. and China.
Finance ministers and central bankers pledged to improve cooperation, yet did little to show how they would alter their ways beyond agreeing to let the IMF study the matter.