page-loading-spinner

Premium Archives

by Chris Martenson

Note:  I am going to travel to NYC today to attend the Occupy Wall Street protest. I want to see firsthand who is there and what their concerns are. It’s not that I don’t trust the media to accurately portray the concerns of the attendees… Okay, yes it is, that’s exactly my concern. I will be traveling with an accomplished media crew to record the event, interviews, and my observations. If you are planning to be there, we will be starting at Zuccotti Park, arriving there about 1:30 pm. Look for us, and let’s connect and have some fun!


 

I had an opportunity to attend and present at the Casey Research Summit in Chandler, AZ on October 1-3, 2011. My perception of the audience, shaped during conversations held during breaks and over dinner, was that of interesting and curious people, most of them incredibly successful in life, seeking to better grasp what the issues and opportunities of our day really are. At times I felt like I was at a wedding, where there’s really no chance of connecting with all the people you wish to speak to.

The conference itself was incredibly well run – like a tight ship – and I learned a lot from the other presenters and exhibitors. My own talk was quite well received, and a quick show of hands at the beginning revealed that roughly 90% of the 450 in attendance had not yet heard of the Crash Course nor been otherwise exposed to my work.

I always relish the opportunity to reach new audiences and this was a great one. (Thank you, Carl!)

My key take-aways from the conference were:

Casey Research Summary (And I’m Off to Join a Protest)
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Note:  I am going to travel to NYC today to attend the Occupy Wall Street protest. I want to see firsthand who is there and what their concerns are. It’s not that I don’t trust the media to accurately portray the concerns of the attendees… Okay, yes it is, that’s exactly my concern. I will be traveling with an accomplished media crew to record the event, interviews, and my observations. If you are planning to be there, we will be starting at Zuccotti Park, arriving there about 1:30 pm. Look for us, and let’s connect and have some fun!


 

I had an opportunity to attend and present at the Casey Research Summit in Chandler, AZ on October 1-3, 2011. My perception of the audience, shaped during conversations held during breaks and over dinner, was that of interesting and curious people, most of them incredibly successful in life, seeking to better grasp what the issues and opportunities of our day really are. At times I felt like I was at a wedding, where there’s really no chance of connecting with all the people you wish to speak to.

The conference itself was incredibly well run – like a tight ship – and I learned a lot from the other presenters and exhibitors. My own talk was quite well received, and a quick show of hands at the beginning revealed that roughly 90% of the 450 in attendance had not yet heard of the Crash Course nor been otherwise exposed to my work.

I always relish the opportunity to reach new audiences and this was a great one. (Thank you, Carl!)

My key take-aways from the conference were:

by charleshughsmith

The Technical Argument for a Stronger Dollar

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Executive Summary

  • The dangers of depending on correlations
  • The dollar as ‘anti-euro’ argument 
  • Key support levels to watch
  • Cycles analysis of dollar prices
  • Keeping the limits of technical analysis in mind

Part I – Heresy and the U.S. Dollar

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – The Technical Argument for a Stronger Dollar

In Part I, I raised the potentially heretical possibility (at least to some) that the U.S. dollar, as reflected by the DXY dollar index, might be in a multi-year uptrend, and then endeavored to sort through the psychological underpinnings of resistance to this possibility.

Here in Part II, I will lay out the technical case for the DXY’s possible multiyear advance.

I would like to start by addressing correlations. Given our minds’ predilection for pattern-matching, it’s natural to see correlations between two slices of the market. For example, when the DXY rises, the stock market declines. This correlation invites speculation on reasons that would explain the correlation.

As the saying goes, correlation is not causation, and so while this line of speculation might illuminate some hidden causal dynamic in play, it also offers ample opportunity for distraction and misguided conclusions.

The Technical Argument for a Stronger Dollar
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

The Technical Argument for a Stronger Dollar

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Executive Summary

  • The dangers of depending on correlations
  • The dollar as ‘anti-euro’ argument 
  • Key support levels to watch
  • Cycles analysis of dollar prices
  • Keeping the limits of technical analysis in mind

Part I – Heresy and the U.S. Dollar

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – The Technical Argument for a Stronger Dollar

In Part I, I raised the potentially heretical possibility (at least to some) that the U.S. dollar, as reflected by the DXY dollar index, might be in a multi-year uptrend, and then endeavored to sort through the psychological underpinnings of resistance to this possibility.

Here in Part II, I will lay out the technical case for the DXY’s possible multiyear advance.

I would like to start by addressing correlations. Given our minds’ predilection for pattern-matching, it’s natural to see correlations between two slices of the market. For example, when the DXY rises, the stock market declines. This correlation invites speculation on reasons that would explain the correlation.

As the saying goes, correlation is not causation, and so while this line of speculation might illuminate some hidden causal dynamic in play, it also offers ample opportunity for distraction and misguided conclusions.

by charleshughsmith

Positioning Yourself for the Devolution of the Euro

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Expect dramatic downward volatility as the crisis worsens this year, forcing new and more dramatic ‘fixes.’
  • What the best options are for capital when seeking to avoid a euro devaluation.
  • An interim period of stabilization is likely, as markets digest the impact of these ‘fixes.’
  • Further downward movement is then anticipated if fundamental issues aren’t addressed (which they likely won’t be).
  • Why timing and vigilance are everything for the attentive investor.

Part I – The Fatal Flaws in the Eurozone and What They Mean for You

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – Positioning Yourself for the Devolution of the Euro

One of the clichés of investing is, “There is no bad investment; there is only bad timing.” While we all know there are indeed bad investments, the point about timing is still valid: In certain situations, timing is the difference between a good and bad investment.

The European crisis may well be just such a situation. Until the structural imbalances are truly resolved and not simply papered over for purposes of perception management, then investments denominated in euros will remain at risk.

If the systemic flaws are not resolved, a risky investment (i.e., assets held in euros) could become a disastrous one. If the imbalances are eventually addressed on a structural level, assets denominated in euros or the follow-on currencies may become relatively attractive.

For investors, the key characteristic of the Eurozone crisis is its unpredictability. Anyone claiming there is “zero probability” of a Eurozone breakup is indulging in false precision. Nobody knows what will happen, as the E.U. and the euro are unique experiments without easy historical precedents. All that can be said with any certainty is that toothless reforms, empty compromises, and ballooning bailouts cannot fix structural flaws, and those are essentially all that’s been offered to date.

Despite the unpredictability of the Eurozone’s debt and currency crises, we can sketch out one potential timeline which would suggest an evolving, flexible investment strategy.

Positioning Yourself for the Devolution of the Euro
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Positioning Yourself for the Devolution of the Euro

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Expect dramatic downward volatility as the crisis worsens this year, forcing new and more dramatic ‘fixes.’
  • What the best options are for capital when seeking to avoid a euro devaluation.
  • An interim period of stabilization is likely, as markets digest the impact of these ‘fixes.’
  • Further downward movement is then anticipated if fundamental issues aren’t addressed (which they likely won’t be).
  • Why timing and vigilance are everything for the attentive investor.

Part I – The Fatal Flaws in the Eurozone and What They Mean for You

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – Positioning Yourself for the Devolution of the Euro

One of the clichés of investing is, “There is no bad investment; there is only bad timing.” While we all know there are indeed bad investments, the point about timing is still valid: In certain situations, timing is the difference between a good and bad investment.

The European crisis may well be just such a situation. Until the structural imbalances are truly resolved and not simply papered over for purposes of perception management, then investments denominated in euros will remain at risk.

If the systemic flaws are not resolved, a risky investment (i.e., assets held in euros) could become a disastrous one. If the imbalances are eventually addressed on a structural level, assets denominated in euros or the follow-on currencies may become relatively attractive.

For investors, the key characteristic of the Eurozone crisis is its unpredictability. Anyone claiming there is “zero probability” of a Eurozone breakup is indulging in false precision. Nobody knows what will happen, as the E.U. and the euro are unique experiments without easy historical precedents. All that can be said with any certainty is that toothless reforms, empty compromises, and ballooning bailouts cannot fix structural flaws, and those are essentially all that’s been offered to date.

Despite the unpredictability of the Eurozone’s debt and currency crises, we can sketch out one potential timeline which would suggest an evolving, flexible investment strategy.

by Chris Martenson

Why Commodities are the New Safe Haven

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Prices have already risen dramatically with the money supply.
  • An increase in money velocity will ratchet up the trajectory in prices dramatically.
  • Are we likely to see more or less moneyprinting from the Fed?
  • Why commodities, beyond the precious metals, are becoming the next safe haven.

Part I – Commodities Seem Set to Rocket Higher

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – Why Commodities are the New Safe Haven

Condition #3: Preference To Hold Money Persists

What does one do with Money of Zero Maturity (MZM)? Well, you can save it in a money market fund, keep it at your bank, or you can spend it. The rate at which it is being spent, relative to the economy, is measured in terms of its velocity. 

The faster people are spending the same money chasing a relatively fixed amount of goods and services, the higher the rate of inflation goes. The mental image you should have here is someone in Germany in the 1920’s being paid with a wheelbarrow full of cash that they push as quickly as they can to the nearest store (literal veloicty of money, as it were).

Right now, the velocity of MZM is near its historic lows (only recently set in 2009), keeping inflationary pressures relatively low — for the time being.

Why Commodities are the New Safe Haven
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Why Commodities are the New Safe Haven

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Prices have already risen dramatically with the money supply.
  • An increase in money velocity will ratchet up the trajectory in prices dramatically.
  • Are we likely to see more or less moneyprinting from the Fed?
  • Why commodities, beyond the precious metals, are becoming the next safe haven.

Part I – Commodities Seem Set to Rocket Higher

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – Why Commodities are the New Safe Haven

Condition #3: Preference To Hold Money Persists

What does one do with Money of Zero Maturity (MZM)? Well, you can save it in a money market fund, keep it at your bank, or you can spend it. The rate at which it is being spent, relative to the economy, is measured in terms of its velocity. 

The faster people are spending the same money chasing a relatively fixed amount of goods and services, the higher the rate of inflation goes. The mental image you should have here is someone in Germany in the 1920’s being paid with a wheelbarrow full of cash that they push as quickly as they can to the nearest store (literal veloicty of money, as it were).

Right now, the velocity of MZM is near its historic lows (only recently set in 2009), keeping inflationary pressures relatively low — for the time being.

by Chris Martenson

One of the key tenets around here at PeakProsperity.com is that you need to trust yourself. The ‘advice’ we receive from Wall Street and its financially captive press about what we should do with our money is really not advice; it’s marketing.

Wall Street makes money by selling stocks and bonds to whomever: pensions, retirees, moms, pops, young workers, endowments…it doesn’t really matter. The name of the game is for you to buy and then hold onto those purchases.

So when the markets hit the skids, you see endless ‘articles’ offering this very (un)helpful ‘advice’:

With the recent headlines and stock market volatility, you may be wondering if we are seeing a repeat of the market activity of 2008. This is one of the hardest parts of being a long-term investor. It’s easy to stay the course when markets are rising. It’s harder to stay the course during declines and view them as potential investing opportunities. But that’s what being a long-term investor is all about.

Remember: Stay invested – A diversified portfolio of quality investments is a sensible strategy during volatile markets.

(Source – AG Edwards client letter) 

Actions Speak Louder Than Words
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

One of the key tenets around here at PeakProsperity.com is that you need to trust yourself. The ‘advice’ we receive from Wall Street and its financially captive press about what we should do with our money is really not advice; it’s marketing.

Wall Street makes money by selling stocks and bonds to whomever: pensions, retirees, moms, pops, young workers, endowments…it doesn’t really matter. The name of the game is for you to buy and then hold onto those purchases.

So when the markets hit the skids, you see endless ‘articles’ offering this very (un)helpful ‘advice’:

With the recent headlines and stock market volatility, you may be wondering if we are seeing a repeat of the market activity of 2008. This is one of the hardest parts of being a long-term investor. It’s easy to stay the course when markets are rising. It’s harder to stay the course during declines and view them as potential investing opportunities. But that’s what being a long-term investor is all about.

Remember: Stay invested – A diversified portfolio of quality investments is a sensible strategy during volatile markets.

(Source – AG Edwards client letter) 

Total 1184 items