Premium Archives
by
charleshughsmith
Executive Summary
- Intervention in the housing market by central planners is experiencing diminishing returns
- The four major trend reversals most likely to depress housing prices in the coming future
- The power deflationary force of reversion to (or perhaps below?) the mean
- Why demographics do not support rising prices
If you have not yet read Part I: The Unsafe Foundation of Our Housing 'Recovery', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we sketched out the larger context of the housing market: the dramatic rise of mortgage debt, the stagnation of income for 90% of households and the unprecedented scope of Central Planning intervention in the housing and mortgage markets.
In Part II, examine what will likely cause this nascent rise in housing prices to reverse, and to resume the decline Central Planning halted in 2009.
Intervention Has Only One Way to Go: Diminishing Returns
As noted in Part I, every Central Planning support of the mortgage and housing markets has already been pushed to the maximum, so there is nowhere left to go. Interest rates are already negative, over 90% of the mortgage market is backed by Federal agencies, the Fed has already pledged to buy trillions of dollars in mortgages, etc.
Four years of this massive intervention has stripped the mortgage and housing markets of the ability to price risk, capital, and assets. This has created a culture of supreme complacency, as participants have come to believe interest rates will stay near-zero for the foreseeable future and Central Planning intervention is permanent.
But nothing is permanent in life. And the current extremes of intervention and complacency have set the stage for some important reversals:
The Forces That Will Reverse Housing’s Recent Gains
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- Intervention in the housing market by central planners is experiencing diminishing returns
- The four major trend reversals most likely to depress housing prices in the coming future
- The power deflationary force of reversion to (or perhaps below?) the mean
- Why demographics do not support rising prices
If you have not yet read Part I: The Unsafe Foundation of Our Housing 'Recovery', available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we sketched out the larger context of the housing market: the dramatic rise of mortgage debt, the stagnation of income for 90% of households and the unprecedented scope of Central Planning intervention in the housing and mortgage markets.
In Part II, examine what will likely cause this nascent rise in housing prices to reverse, and to resume the decline Central Planning halted in 2009.
Intervention Has Only One Way to Go: Diminishing Returns
As noted in Part I, every Central Planning support of the mortgage and housing markets has already been pushed to the maximum, so there is nowhere left to go. Interest rates are already negative, over 90% of the mortgage market is backed by Federal agencies, the Fed has already pledged to buy trillions of dollars in mortgages, etc.
Four years of this massive intervention has stripped the mortgage and housing markets of the ability to price risk, capital, and assets. This has created a culture of supreme complacency, as participants have come to believe interest rates will stay near-zero for the foreseeable future and Central Planning intervention is permanent.
But nothing is permanent in life. And the current extremes of intervention and complacency have set the stage for some important reversals:
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- Japan is intentionally devaluing its currency through money printing. The recent boost in the Nikkei is simply the result of this flood of new money.
- Japan industry is now experiencing cost increases on two fronts: inflation of the money supply, and rising prices on the global market for commodities.
- Rising bond rates are all but guaranteed.
- Gold vs. the yen is surging and will pick up momentum from here
- The ten predictable events that will happen next, as the unavoidable Japan disaster unfolds
If you have not yet read Part I: The Arrival of Japan's Sunset available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part II we explain why Japan has unequivocally entered the terminal phase of its 20-year reflationary experiment.
Further “abundance” harvesting from this point forward will be difficult if not impossible.
Is the devaluation of the yen really the successful technology that will fool nature? We think not. The outcome will have spectacular implications for many global assets, ranging from real estate, to stock markets, to oil and gold.
Observers of Japan from this point forward should be sober about the threshold the country has now crossed. Japan has effectively said to the world: Go ahead, make my day. Sell our currency, give us inflation, and get out of our bonds.
Japan has indeed taken to heart the Krugman dictum, and committed to irresponsibility.
The 10 Next Predictable Steps to Japan’s Unfolding Disaster
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- Japan is intentionally devaluing its currency through money printing. The recent boost in the Nikkei is simply the result of this flood of new money.
- Japan industry is now experiencing cost increases on two fronts: inflation of the money supply, and rising prices on the global market for commodities.
- Rising bond rates are all but guaranteed.
- Gold vs. the yen is surging and will pick up momentum from here
- The ten predictable events that will happen next, as the unavoidable Japan disaster unfolds
If you have not yet read Part I: The Arrival of Japan's Sunset available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part II we explain why Japan has unequivocally entered the terminal phase of its 20-year reflationary experiment.
Further “abundance” harvesting from this point forward will be difficult if not impossible.
Is the devaluation of the yen really the successful technology that will fool nature? We think not. The outcome will have spectacular implications for many global assets, ranging from real estate, to stock markets, to oil and gold.
Observers of Japan from this point forward should be sober about the threshold the country has now crossed. Japan has effectively said to the world: Go ahead, make my day. Sell our currency, give us inflation, and get out of our bonds.
Japan has indeed taken to heart the Krugman dictum, and committed to irresponsibility.
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- The transition back to an electricity-centric economy is regressive
- Declining net energy and peak expansion are co-incident
- Change that substitutes labor without providing a higher use for it is deflationary and results in inequality
- Our challenge is to find sustainable work for society
If you have not yet read The Siren Song of the Robot, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Capitalism demands fast gains in productivity. Capitalism seeks revolutionary change. But it’s not clear whether a revolution in machine intelligence leads to a deflationary boom, per Schumpeter, or a deflationary bust.
Writers such as Paul Krugman have perhaps moved too quickly, too easily, to conclude that a massive increase in production from such technology leads sustainably to large growth in GDP without severe consequences. Indeed, in a recent essay responding to Robert Gordon's paper on the end of growth, Krugman takes the view that (positive) returns from technology are just beginning to unfold.
I conclude that Krugman is actually concerned about and open to the possibility that an enormous wave of disruption to manufacturing from robots could produce higher GDP initially and also problems thereafter. What happens to wages in the broader economy?
One does not have to be a Luddite about technology to fear yet another huge new round of wage deflation. The West has already been treated to an era of “cheap, quickly manufactured goods that enhance people’s lives” during the past two decades. And it’s not clear that a flood of goods has necessarily improved well-being.
While I certainly wouldn’t make the curmudgeon's case that electronic devices have reduced well-being, it’s not clear that the I.T. revolution has accomplished much in the way of delivering to consumers cheaper and better quality energy, food, or health care.
Why the Robot Age May Create a Massive Deflationary Bust
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- The transition back to an electricity-centric economy is regressive
- Declining net energy and peak expansion are co-incident
- Change that substitutes labor without providing a higher use for it is deflationary and results in inequality
- Our challenge is to find sustainable work for society
If you have not yet read The Siren Song of the Robot, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Capitalism demands fast gains in productivity. Capitalism seeks revolutionary change. But it’s not clear whether a revolution in machine intelligence leads to a deflationary boom, per Schumpeter, or a deflationary bust.
Writers such as Paul Krugman have perhaps moved too quickly, too easily, to conclude that a massive increase in production from such technology leads sustainably to large growth in GDP without severe consequences. Indeed, in a recent essay responding to Robert Gordon's paper on the end of growth, Krugman takes the view that (positive) returns from technology are just beginning to unfold.
I conclude that Krugman is actually concerned about and open to the possibility that an enormous wave of disruption to manufacturing from robots could produce higher GDP initially and also problems thereafter. What happens to wages in the broader economy?
One does not have to be a Luddite about technology to fear yet another huge new round of wage deflation. The West has already been treated to an era of “cheap, quickly manufactured goods that enhance people’s lives” during the past two decades. And it’s not clear that a flood of goods has necessarily improved well-being.
While I certainly wouldn’t make the curmudgeon's case that electronic devices have reduced well-being, it’s not clear that the I.T. revolution has accomplished much in the way of delivering to consumers cheaper and better quality energy, food, or health care.
by
John Michael Greer
Executive Summary
- Escalating costs of resource extraction and associated pollution are key headwinds on future economic growth
- For the first time in generations, the same limits to growth that handicapped pre-industrial society are reasserting themselves
- Our economic and political leaders are misdiagnosing the root problem, and therefore prescribing the wrong treatments
- Remember stagflation? Get ready to experience it again – with a vengeance
If you have not yet read The Tangled Relationship between Wealth & Money available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The forces driving today’s ongoing economic crisis were sketched out decades ago in the pages of the Club of Rome’s epochal 1973 study, The Limits to Growth. Mention that book to most people nowadays, and those who admit they’ve heard of it at all routinely insist that it made false claims about the future.
The irony – and it’s not a small one – is that this simply isn’t true…
A society in this situation can expand its production of goods and services – its 'wealth economy,' in the terms used in Part I – up to the limits of the environment’s ability to provide resources and absorb waste. Once those limits appear in the rearview mirror, though, any further expansion of the wealth economy runs into two insurmountable difficulties…
Slamming Face-First into the Limits to Growth
PREVIEW by John Michael GreerExecutive Summary
- Escalating costs of resource extraction and associated pollution are key headwinds on future economic growth
- For the first time in generations, the same limits to growth that handicapped pre-industrial society are reasserting themselves
- Our economic and political leaders are misdiagnosing the root problem, and therefore prescribing the wrong treatments
- Remember stagflation? Get ready to experience it again – with a vengeance
If you have not yet read The Tangled Relationship between Wealth & Money available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The forces driving today’s ongoing economic crisis were sketched out decades ago in the pages of the Club of Rome’s epochal 1973 study, The Limits to Growth. Mention that book to most people nowadays, and those who admit they’ve heard of it at all routinely insist that it made false claims about the future.
The irony – and it’s not a small one – is that this simply isn’t true…
A society in this situation can expand its production of goods and services – its 'wealth economy,' in the terms used in Part I – up to the limits of the environment’s ability to provide resources and absorb waste. Once those limits appear in the rearview mirror, though, any further expansion of the wealth economy runs into two insurmountable difficulties…
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- Petroleum is bumping along its global maximum plateau
- Global demand (led by Asia) will soon far outstrip supply
- Why oil is getting scarcer, but cheap oil is already non-existent
- How insufficient net energy will be the mortal pin that pops our unsustainable financial system
If you have not yet read The Really, Really Big Picture, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Global Supply
Where the U.S. shale plays have been getting an undue allotment of press compared to their current and projected flow rates, the major story remains that oil companies are spending more and more as oil becomes more difficult to find and challenging to produce.
What's interesting is that so many people hold the opposite view, perhaps shaped by the breathless manner in which new finds are announced, but rarely with an appropriate level of context or caution so that we can judge how significant or likely these finds actually are.
Here's a relatively recent example that captures this dynamic rather well. Back in 2010, a very exciting discovery was splashed all across the news with some very heady claims:
McMoRan Exploration announced a potentially major natural gas discovery in its operated Davy Jones ultra-deep prospect drilled in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico (commonly referred to as the "shelf"), just 10 miles off the Louisiana coast.
Positive drilling results could be a huge boom for the company. McMoRan Exploration had proved oil and gas reserves at year-end 2009 totaling 271.9 Bcfe (billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents), compared with 344.8 Bcfe in 2008.
Estimates of the size of the discovery range from 2 trillion to 6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, rivaling the largest gas finds ever made in the Gulf.
(Source)
This is the nature of such press releases, as I now think of them. Yes, it's exciting that billions of barrels could be discovered and that these finds might produce as much as 15 billion barrels of oil. Unfortunately, a short euphoric sound bite like that is all of the story that every really gets transmitted to the casual reader. I combat these perceptions constantly in my live Q&A sessions after speeches.
The full reality is contained within the context-free but vitally important statement that tapping this field requires drilling down to more than 28,000 feet (!).
Fast forward to 2012 and here's the reality of that find…
How Energy Woes Will Trigger Financial Crisis
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Petroleum is bumping along its global maximum plateau
- Global demand (led by Asia) will soon far outstrip supply
- Why oil is getting scarcer, but cheap oil is already non-existent
- How insufficient net energy will be the mortal pin that pops our unsustainable financial system
If you have not yet read The Really, Really Big Picture, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Global Supply
Where the U.S. shale plays have been getting an undue allotment of press compared to their current and projected flow rates, the major story remains that oil companies are spending more and more as oil becomes more difficult to find and challenging to produce.
What's interesting is that so many people hold the opposite view, perhaps shaped by the breathless manner in which new finds are announced, but rarely with an appropriate level of context or caution so that we can judge how significant or likely these finds actually are.
Here's a relatively recent example that captures this dynamic rather well. Back in 2010, a very exciting discovery was splashed all across the news with some very heady claims:
McMoRan Exploration announced a potentially major natural gas discovery in its operated Davy Jones ultra-deep prospect drilled in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico (commonly referred to as the "shelf"), just 10 miles off the Louisiana coast.
Positive drilling results could be a huge boom for the company. McMoRan Exploration had proved oil and gas reserves at year-end 2009 totaling 271.9 Bcfe (billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents), compared with 344.8 Bcfe in 2008.
Estimates of the size of the discovery range from 2 trillion to 6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, rivaling the largest gas finds ever made in the Gulf.
(Source)
This is the nature of such press releases, as I now think of them. Yes, it's exciting that billions of barrels could be discovered and that these finds might produce as much as 15 billion barrels of oil. Unfortunately, a short euphoric sound bite like that is all of the story that every really gets transmitted to the casual reader. I combat these perceptions constantly in my live Q&A sessions after speeches.
The full reality is contained within the context-free but vitally important statement that tapping this field requires drilling down to more than 28,000 feet (!).
Fast forward to 2012 and here's the reality of that find…
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