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Image | How To Prepare For War
How To Prepare For War
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • How to Prepare for:
    • Trade War
    • Energy War
    • Financial War
    • Cyberwar
    • Grid-down attack
    • Conventional Shooting War
    • Nuclear War

If you have not yet read Part 1: Tensions Between US/NATO & Russia Are Flaring Dangerously available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

As a preamble, I need to note that I do not enjoy or derive any satisfaction from writing about or spending time on figuring out how to dodge the worst impacts of human behavior.  War sits right at the top of my ‘this is stupid’ list.  War should be the very last resort after all other diplomatic efforts have failed.  I am sorry that I have to spend time writing this report, and I am sorry that you have to spend time considering it.

As (sadly) expected, things have only escalated over the past several years, not deescalated.  The West has a serious bone to pick with Russia and nobody can rationally explain what or why that might be. I happen to think this is all about bruised neocon egos over Syria, while others think this is just military industrial business being waged in typical fashion.  But it really doesn’t matter what the explanation is; at this point we have to accept that things are at a dangerous point and do our best to respond appropriately.

The consequences of a war between Russia and the US/NATO could range from a very minor skirmish fought over some relatively meaningless items of trade, to an attack on financial markets, all the way to an all-out nuclear exchange.

The question becomes, what, if anything, can we do to prepare?

Lots as it turns out.

No matter where you live, even if you are close to Ukraine and face the prospect of being near a front line that might develop in the future, there is lots that you can and should do.  Luckily, most of the preparations are similar to those you should be undertaking anyways, war worries or not, so they won’t cost you anything extra in terms of time or money.

What you end up doing depends on which sort of war you consider most likely, where you happen to live, and your means.  So let’s consider the range of possibilities here…

How To Prepare For War
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • How to Prepare for:
    • Trade War
    • Energy War
    • Financial War
    • Cyberwar
    • Grid-down attack
    • Conventional Shooting War
    • Nuclear War

If you have not yet read Part 1: Tensions Between US/NATO & Russia Are Flaring Dangerously available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

As a preamble, I need to note that I do not enjoy or derive any satisfaction from writing about or spending time on figuring out how to dodge the worst impacts of human behavior.  War sits right at the top of my ‘this is stupid’ list.  War should be the very last resort after all other diplomatic efforts have failed.  I am sorry that I have to spend time writing this report, and I am sorry that you have to spend time considering it.

As (sadly) expected, things have only escalated over the past several years, not deescalated.  The West has a serious bone to pick with Russia and nobody can rationally explain what or why that might be. I happen to think this is all about bruised neocon egos over Syria, while others think this is just military industrial business being waged in typical fashion.  But it really doesn’t matter what the explanation is; at this point we have to accept that things are at a dangerous point and do our best to respond appropriately.

The consequences of a war between Russia and the US/NATO could range from a very minor skirmish fought over some relatively meaningless items of trade, to an attack on financial markets, all the way to an all-out nuclear exchange.

The question becomes, what, if anything, can we do to prepare?

Lots as it turns out.

No matter where you live, even if you are close to Ukraine and face the prospect of being near a front line that might develop in the future, there is lots that you can and should do.  Luckily, most of the preparations are similar to those you should be undertaking anyways, war worries or not, so they won’t cost you anything extra in terms of time or money.

What you end up doing depends on which sort of war you consider most likely, where you happen to live, and your means.  So let’s consider the range of possibilities here…

Image | The Approaching Moment Of Market Capitulation
The Approaching Moment Of Market Capitulation
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Today, on Wednesday June 15th, the Fed made its latest 'non-decision' and did not raise interest rates. The stock market first rose but then tumbled, likely indicating that the Fed's magic is all used up. As we all know, that’s about the only thing that’s been keeping the stock market levitated of late.

I’m on record as saying that not only would the Fed not raise rates this meeting, but that their next move, when it arrives, will be to lower rates; not raise them.

Got that? Down; not up.
The Approaching Moment Of Market Capitulation
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Today, on Wednesday June 15th, the Fed made its latest 'non-decision' and did not raise interest rates. The stock market first rose but then tumbled, likely indicating that the Fed's magic is all used up. As we all know, that’s about the only thing that’s been keeping the stock market levitated of late.

I’m on record as saying that not only would the Fed not raise rates this meeting, but that their next move, when it arrives, will be to lower rates; not raise them.

Got that? Down; not up.
Image | Will Cryptocurrencies Soar as the Global Economy Falters?
Will Cryptocurrencies Soar as the Global Economy Falters?
 PREVIEW
by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • How will increasing capital controls around the world affect demand for cryptocurrencies?
  • The big banks and corporations are embracing the blockchain. Will that make it harder to ban cryptocurrencies?
  • With far less than 1% of the population holding cryptocurrencies, how large is the remaining updside?
  • What the future may hold for bitcoin and its digital brethren

If you have not yet read An Everyman's Guide To Understanding Cryptocurrencies, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we sketched a brief overview of cryptocurrencies and their potential role as a means of transferring and thus preserving capital from depreciating currencies in destabilized economies to more secure currencies/assets elsewhere in the world.

The Rise of Capital Controls Fuels the Use of Cryptocurrencies

As governments actively devalue their currencies (thereby making everyone using the currency poorer), their citizenry with financial capital are forced to seek ways to move their at-risk wealth into other currencies or assets.

China is a prime example of this trend. As the U.S. dollar has soared 20+%, China’s currency has strengthened along with the USD due to the yuan being pegged to the USD. In response, China must devalue its currency to maintain the global competitiveness of its export sector.

Faced with a massive loss of purchasing power, China’s wealthy class has moved their wealth and their families out of China. This flood of capital has pushed up housing prices in favored markets such as Vancouver B.C. and west coast cities in the U.S.

The sums being transferred abroad are non-trivial. Estimates range into the trillions of dollars. Many observers see the rise of capital controls as…

Will Cryptocurrencies Soar as the Global Economy Falters?
 PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • How will increasing capital controls around the world affect demand for cryptocurrencies?
  • The big banks and corporations are embracing the blockchain. Will that make it harder to ban cryptocurrencies?
  • With far less than 1% of the population holding cryptocurrencies, how large is the remaining updside?
  • What the future may hold for bitcoin and its digital brethren

If you have not yet read An Everyman's Guide To Understanding Cryptocurrencies, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we sketched a brief overview of cryptocurrencies and their potential role as a means of transferring and thus preserving capital from depreciating currencies in destabilized economies to more secure currencies/assets elsewhere in the world.

The Rise of Capital Controls Fuels the Use of Cryptocurrencies

As governments actively devalue their currencies (thereby making everyone using the currency poorer), their citizenry with financial capital are forced to seek ways to move their at-risk wealth into other currencies or assets.

China is a prime example of this trend. As the U.S. dollar has soared 20+%, China’s currency has strengthened along with the USD due to the yuan being pegged to the USD. In response, China must devalue its currency to maintain the global competitiveness of its export sector.

Faced with a massive loss of purchasing power, China’s wealthy class has moved their wealth and their families out of China. This flood of capital has pushed up housing prices in favored markets such as Vancouver B.C. and west coast cities in the U.S.

The sums being transferred abroad are non-trivial. Estimates range into the trillions of dollars. Many observers see the rise of capital controls as…

Image | Why The Fed’s Efforts Will End Badly
Why The Fed’s Efforts Will End Badly
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

It’s no secret that I've taken the contrarian position for seven long (and frequently frustrating) years.

Look, we’ve been down this road before, and the sheer stupidity of our current situation is that we’ve been down it recently enough to know better.  It worked out poorly for us in 2000, again in 2008, and will soon enough again. That's why I'm currently short the US stock market and plan to increase that short position as time goes on.

I'm quite familiar with, and even sympathetic to, the idea that the central banks will not…
Why The Fed’s Efforts Will End Badly
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

It’s no secret that I've taken the contrarian position for seven long (and frequently frustrating) years.

Look, we’ve been down this road before, and the sheer stupidity of our current situation is that we’ve been down it recently enough to know better.  It worked out poorly for us in 2000, again in 2008, and will soon enough again. That's why I'm currently short the US stock market and plan to increase that short position as time goes on.

I'm quite familiar with, and even sympathetic to, the idea that the central banks will not…
Image | Ignoring Reality Doesn’t Work
Ignoring Reality Doesn’t Work
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Right now, we humans are busy creating a major eco-tastrophe for ourselves. I’d be a lot more hopeful about our ability as a species to at least notice that, and possibly even do something positive and proactive about it; but ecological destruction is slow, complex, and doesn't change much on a day-to-day basis — making it poorly visible to the key decision makers. 

My lack of hope stems from our oft-demonstrated inability to rally around workable solutions for the serious predicaments that are blatantly near-term, obvious and straightforward.  Take for example the current Greek debt crisis.
Ignoring Reality Doesn’t Work
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Right now, we humans are busy creating a major eco-tastrophe for ourselves. I’d be a lot more hopeful about our ability as a species to at least notice that, and possibly even do something positive and proactive about it; but ecological destruction is slow, complex, and doesn't change much on a day-to-day basis — making it poorly visible to the key decision makers. 

My lack of hope stems from our oft-demonstrated inability to rally around workable solutions for the serious predicaments that are blatantly near-term, obvious and straightforward.  Take for example the current Greek debt crisis.
Image | And The Winner Is…
And The Winner Is…
 PREVIEW
by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The Sole Superpower
  • The Importance of factoring in External Costs
  • The Biggest Loser
  • Which nations to keep your investments in

If you have not yet read Which Countries Will Be Tomorrow's Winners & Losers?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the thesis that geography and demographics largely define a nation’s destiny.

In Part 2 here, we add other potentially game-changing factors that don’t necessarily fit neatly into either category.

Oh, No: America, The Sole Superpower?

Many of those who disagree with America’s military-interventionist foreign policy of the past 15 years will naturally be appalled by any analysis that suggests America’s preeminence is only going to become even more dominant as the rest of the world is destabilized by the inter-connected dynamics driving global disorder.

The good news is Zeihan sees America becoming much less interventionist as it withdraws into greater self-sufficiency—a topic I’ve discussed in previous essays on autarky. (What If Nations Were Less Dependent on One Another? The Case for Autarky (January 2014))

In Zeihan’s view, America’s preeminence is based on its unparalleled assets of geography and more favorable demographics than its competitors. Zeihan sees the U.S.A’s energy resources, dual-ocean buffers, lack of contiguous-border competitors/enemies, culture of innovation and impressive pool of domestic and foreign capital as an unbeatable combination that no other aspirant to superpower status can match.

In his analysis, the intrinsic weaknesses of other nations and alliances such as the Eurozone have been papered over by the flood of capital that has saturated the global economy for the past 20 years.  The source of this ocean of capital is….

And The Winner Is…
 PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The Sole Superpower
  • The Importance of factoring in External Costs
  • The Biggest Loser
  • Which nations to keep your investments in

If you have not yet read Which Countries Will Be Tomorrow's Winners & Losers?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the thesis that geography and demographics largely define a nation’s destiny.

In Part 2 here, we add other potentially game-changing factors that don’t necessarily fit neatly into either category.

Oh, No: America, The Sole Superpower?

Many of those who disagree with America’s military-interventionist foreign policy of the past 15 years will naturally be appalled by any analysis that suggests America’s preeminence is only going to become even more dominant as the rest of the world is destabilized by the inter-connected dynamics driving global disorder.

The good news is Zeihan sees America becoming much less interventionist as it withdraws into greater self-sufficiency—a topic I’ve discussed in previous essays on autarky. (What If Nations Were Less Dependent on One Another? The Case for Autarky (January 2014))

In Zeihan’s view, America’s preeminence is based on its unparalleled assets of geography and more favorable demographics than its competitors. Zeihan sees the U.S.A’s energy resources, dual-ocean buffers, lack of contiguous-border competitors/enemies, culture of innovation and impressive pool of domestic and foreign capital as an unbeatable combination that no other aspirant to superpower status can match.

In his analysis, the intrinsic weaknesses of other nations and alliances such as the Eurozone have been papered over by the flood of capital that has saturated the global economy for the past 20 years.  The source of this ocean of capital is….

Image | How To Prepare For Volatility
How To Prepare For Volatility
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • What Fort McMurray is teaching us about situational awareness
  • The wisdom of planning, testing & executing your plans in advance of crisis
  • Preparing in case your entire country starts failing
  • The value of emotional preparedness

If you have not yet read Chaos And Volatility On The Rise, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Okay, so what can any of us do to really prepare ourselves for volatility and the sorts of uncertainty that the world is presenting to us?

Quite a lot actually.

In the case of financial market volatility, the easiest thing to do is to simply not play the game. Keep money in cash and just stay away from the rigged casinos until such a time as attractive valuations return and/or the playing field is leveled.

If you remain in the markets, for heaven’s sake hedge! If you click on the link to the left there, you’ll go to an article written by Adam Taggart that describes the basics of portfolio hedging.

Our recommended financial advisors use very proactive hedging strategies to limit downside volatility and minimize the sorts of punishing losses that can result from bear markets.

I am personally sitting in cash, gold, silver, real estate, a local investment, and a small short position on the S&P 500. That is, I am mainly on the sidelines as I await the inevitable correction that our feckless ‘leaders’ have engineered for us all.

Other people prefer to be more actively invested in the stock and bond markets, which I completely understand. I still would caution those individuals to be ready to…

How To Prepare For Volatility
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • What Fort McMurray is teaching us about situational awareness
  • The wisdom of planning, testing & executing your plans in advance of crisis
  • Preparing in case your entire country starts failing
  • The value of emotional preparedness

If you have not yet read Chaos And Volatility On The Rise, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Okay, so what can any of us do to really prepare ourselves for volatility and the sorts of uncertainty that the world is presenting to us?

Quite a lot actually.

In the case of financial market volatility, the easiest thing to do is to simply not play the game. Keep money in cash and just stay away from the rigged casinos until such a time as attractive valuations return and/or the playing field is leveled.

If you remain in the markets, for heaven’s sake hedge! If you click on the link to the left there, you’ll go to an article written by Adam Taggart that describes the basics of portfolio hedging.

Our recommended financial advisors use very proactive hedging strategies to limit downside volatility and minimize the sorts of punishing losses that can result from bear markets.

I am personally sitting in cash, gold, silver, real estate, a local investment, and a small short position on the S&P 500. That is, I am mainly on the sidelines as I await the inevitable correction that our feckless ‘leaders’ have engineered for us all.

Other people prefer to be more actively invested in the stock and bond markets, which I completely understand. I still would caution those individuals to be ready to…

Image | Close To The Tipping Point
Close To The Tipping Point
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

There’s something in the air: people are edgy and worried. But about what, exactly?

Despite allegedly rosy economic statistics and endless cheerleading about how the markets have bottomed and how growth is poised to come roaring back, our heads and our guts instead tell us something is very wrong.

People everywhere can feel it. They're expressing varying levels of dissatisfaction: ranging from mildly concerned, to very worried, to downright pissed off.

We see it broadly in the hostility and opinion canyons of the election cycle. Perhaps we’ve experienced it personally, through the ending of a relationship that no longer works as we need it to.

These are the signs of tipping points. The human animal senses the coming tsunami and reacts from a very deep, visceral place where emotions hold sway and reason stumbles.  We are social creatures; and not all of the cues to which we react are visible or quantifiable.
Close To The Tipping Point
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

There’s something in the air: people are edgy and worried. But about what, exactly?

Despite allegedly rosy economic statistics and endless cheerleading about how the markets have bottomed and how growth is poised to come roaring back, our heads and our guts instead tell us something is very wrong.

People everywhere can feel it. They're expressing varying levels of dissatisfaction: ranging from mildly concerned, to very worried, to downright pissed off.

We see it broadly in the hostility and opinion canyons of the election cycle. Perhaps we’ve experienced it personally, through the ending of a relationship that no longer works as we need it to.

These are the signs of tipping points. The human animal senses the coming tsunami and reacts from a very deep, visceral place where emotions hold sway and reason stumbles.  We are social creatures; and not all of the cues to which we react are visible or quantifiable.
Image | Why I Went A Little More Short Today
Why I Went A Little More Short Today
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

I've been slowly layering into a short position against the US S&P 500 stock market. At this rate, I plan to be 80% short in my trading and retirement accounts by the end of May. You know “Sell in May and go away.” I am now at 45%.

That’s my general strategy here. 

My reasons for building up this short position are many.  Here are a few of them.
Why I Went A Little More Short Today
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

I've been slowly layering into a short position against the US S&P 500 stock market. At this rate, I plan to be 80% short in my trading and retirement accounts by the end of May. You know “Sell in May and go away.” I am now at 45%.

That’s my general strategy here. 

My reasons for building up this short position are many.  Here are a few of them.
Image | The Secret Deal To Drive The Markets
The Secret Deal To Drive The Markets
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Let’s not kid ourselves anymore; the world’s financial markets are heavily manipulated on a regular, if not daily, basis by central banks and their main clients the Big Banks.

Frustratingly, one vocal group denies that this is case while another actively cheers on the manipulations.  The first group thinks that because in the past markets have been too big for central banks to influence trends for more than a short while that this must still be equally true today.
The Secret Deal To Drive The Markets
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Let’s not kid ourselves anymore; the world’s financial markets are heavily manipulated on a regular, if not daily, basis by central banks and their main clients the Big Banks.

Frustratingly, one vocal group denies that this is case while another actively cheers on the manipulations.  The first group thinks that because in the past markets have been too big for central banks to influence trends for more than a short while that this must still be equally true today.
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