Chris Martenson
This blog post is an example of the daily writing I do for enrolled members in the In Session forum area. I wanted to get this one out to everyone because it deserves to be widely read and discussed. If you are interested in reading and discussing news in real-time, I invite you to consider enrolling.
GDP: More fuzzy numbers
The GDP report was released this morning and it was a compendium of incomprehensible and illogical numbers and, worse, it is just plain wrong.
Of course, since so much rides on an accurate assessment of our true economic state of affairs, it behooves us to make sense of it as best we can, understanding that the GDP report is less than perfect and riddled with difficult-to-rationalize statistical manipulations and quirky additions.
For example, the imputed value of "owner occupied housing" is a non-cash ‘addition’ to GDP meant to capture the value that people derive from their houses, due to the fact that they own them and do not pay rent to themselves in order to live there. If this does not make sense to you, that means you are normal.
So we gamely march off into the most current GDP report, which came out this morning (Friday, July 31, 2009), mostly to expose just how wrong it is.
GDP Report is Just Plain Wrong
This blog post is an example of the daily writing I do for enrolled members in the In Session forum area. I wanted to get this one out to everyone because it deserves to be widely read and discussed. If you are interested in reading and discussing news in real-time, I invite you to consider enrolling.
GDP: More fuzzy numbers
The GDP report was released this morning and it was a compendium of incomprehensible and illogical numbers and, worse, it is just plain wrong.
Of course, since so much rides on an accurate assessment of our true economic state of affairs, it behooves us to make sense of it as best we can, understanding that the GDP report is less than perfect and riddled with difficult-to-rationalize statistical manipulations and quirky additions.
For example, the imputed value of "owner occupied housing" is a non-cash ‘addition’ to GDP meant to capture the value that people derive from their houses, due to the fact that they own them and do not pay rent to themselves in order to live there. If this does not make sense to you, that means you are normal.
So we gamely march off into the most current GDP report, which came out this morning (Friday, July 31, 2009), mostly to expose just how wrong it is.
Last night, in Boulder Colorado, I had the honor to present a one-hour mini version of the Crash Course to an audience that I estimate to be in the vicinity of 300+. Sponsored by Transition Colorado, who did a remarkable and professional job of organizing and managing the event, this talk was attended by more young people than any other talk I have given.
This was extremely heartening.
Dr. Albert Bartlett was in attendance, which was a great honor for me, although I confess to being nervous at the thought of covering exponential growth with him in the audience. It seemed kind of like giving meditation advice to the Dali Lama. Nonetheless, I now have a picture of myself with a man who I am sure will be recognized through time as being both right and unwavering in his views on exponential growth and population.
At the talk, I necessarily had to gloss over some important details, and one of those concerned the statement that “The United States is Insolvent.”
I originally wrote about this unpleasant fact back in 2006 in a Martenson Report entitled The United States Is Insolvent. And today, unfortunately, the situation has only deteriorated. I want to revisit that topic because there is really nothing more onerous to the future prosperity of a country than going bankrupt. If you care about the future prosperity of the US, you need to understand this situation.
Yesterday, my jaw literally dropped when I read this statement made by Vice President Joe Biden:
The US is Insolvent (and headed towards bankruptcy)
Last night, in Boulder Colorado, I had the honor to present a one-hour mini version of the Crash Course to an audience that I estimate to be in the vicinity of 300+. Sponsored by Transition Colorado, who did a remarkable and professional job of organizing and managing the event, this talk was attended by more young people than any other talk I have given.
This was extremely heartening.
Dr. Albert Bartlett was in attendance, which was a great honor for me, although I confess to being nervous at the thought of covering exponential growth with him in the audience. It seemed kind of like giving meditation advice to the Dali Lama. Nonetheless, I now have a picture of myself with a man who I am sure will be recognized through time as being both right and unwavering in his views on exponential growth and population.
At the talk, I necessarily had to gloss over some important details, and one of those concerned the statement that “The United States is Insolvent.”
I originally wrote about this unpleasant fact back in 2006 in a Martenson Report entitled The United States Is Insolvent. And today, unfortunately, the situation has only deteriorated. I want to revisit that topic because there is really nothing more onerous to the future prosperity of a country than going bankrupt. If you care about the future prosperity of the US, you need to understand this situation.
Yesterday, my jaw literally dropped when I read this statement made by Vice President Joe Biden:
From a recent In Session post:
This week, the big news is the trouble brewing at CIT group. If you don’t know them, they are a large financial services firm, mainly providing loans and financing to mid-sized companies.
Their business model involves lending at one rate, then selling the loans to the market at a slightly lower rate and pocketing the difference. Something like a bank, but they do not leverage their loans off of deposits. Of course, I am simplifying the business model of a very large and diversified company. Suffice it to say that the way the securitization market has been operating, and with the cost of capital climbing the way it has, their business model has gone to heaven. It has shuffled off the mortal coil.
At any rate, things have not looked good for a while. This is one of the more horrid-looking charts you will ever see…
Trouble brewing at CIT group
From a recent In Session post:
This week, the big news is the trouble brewing at CIT group. If you don’t know them, they are a large financial services firm, mainly providing loans and financing to mid-sized companies.
Their business model involves lending at one rate, then selling the loans to the market at a slightly lower rate and pocketing the difference. Something like a bank, but they do not leverage their loans off of deposits. Of course, I am simplifying the business model of a very large and diversified company. Suffice it to say that the way the securitization market has been operating, and with the cost of capital climbing the way it has, their business model has gone to heaven. It has shuffled off the mortal coil.
At any rate, things have not looked good for a while. This is one of the more horrid-looking charts you will ever see…
I am very pleased to offer you the second article in Dr. Morgan Giddings’ excellent two-part series on using bicycles as an alternative means of transportation. Morgan’s commitment to using bicycles for transportation in her own life and her dedication to helping others find that path (if you’ll excuse the pun) is inspiring.
The entire article, available free to all readers, can be found here:
A Quiet Revolution in Bicycles: Recapturing a Role as Utilitarian People-Movers (Part II)
Below is a snippet to get you started.
So you’re inspired to try more biking…now what?
After learning about Peak Oil a few years back, I decided to get a cargo bicycle setup with an electric assist as an alternative to using a car for around-town trips…I quickly found out that it wasn’t a simple undertaking, despite my fairly broad experience. The local bike shops were not enthused by this project. They wouldn’t touch electric assist, and ordering an Xtracycle kit to convert my bike to a cargo hauler was something they were decidedly lukewarm about. Given that attitude, I decided to just order the parts through the Internet and do it myself.
A Quiet Revolution in Bicycles: Recapturing a Role as Utilitarian People-Movers (Part II)
I am very pleased to offer you the second article in Dr. Morgan Giddings’ excellent two-part series on using bicycles as an alternative means of transportation. Morgan’s commitment to using bicycles for transportation in her own life and her dedication to helping others find that path (if you’ll excuse the pun) is inspiring.
The entire article, available free to all readers, can be found here:
A Quiet Revolution in Bicycles: Recapturing a Role as Utilitarian People-Movers (Part II)
Below is a snippet to get you started.
So you’re inspired to try more biking…now what?
After learning about Peak Oil a few years back, I decided to get a cargo bicycle setup with an electric assist as an alternative to using a car for around-town trips…I quickly found out that it wasn’t a simple undertaking, despite my fairly broad experience. The local bike shops were not enthused by this project. They wouldn’t touch electric assist, and ordering an Xtracycle kit to convert my bike to a cargo hauler was something they were decidedly lukewarm about. Given that attitude, I decided to just order the parts through the Internet and do it myself.
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