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Chris Martenson

This week we bring back Alasdair Macleod, publisher of FinanceAndEconomics.org, because, as he puts it, "every horror that we discussed last time we spoke is coming about." This is especially scary since our previous conversation with Alasdair was less than three weeks ago…

Today's interview continues building on his excellent synopsis from last month that detailed the origins of the Eurozone crisis. The fundamental shortcomings warned of at the euro's creation in 1997, combined with the excessive sovereign debts run up since then, have finally expressed themselves at a scale too large to be contained any longer.

Today, Alasdair details in depth the huge and serious challenges facing Greece and the major Eurozone countries and the likely impacts of the fast-dwindling options left remaining.

He sees no happy ending to this story, no outcome in which serious pain and permanent behavior change can be avoided. And for those looking for shelter from the unfolding economic storm, he sees few options besides the precious metals (which he believes are severely underpriced at the moment): 

 

Alasdair Macleod: All Roads in Europe Lead to Gold

This week we bring back Alasdair Macleod, publisher of FinanceAndEconomics.org, because, as he puts it, "every horror that we discussed last time we spoke is coming about." This is especially scary since our previous conversation with Alasdair was less than three weeks ago…

Today's interview continues building on his excellent synopsis from last month that detailed the origins of the Eurozone crisis. The fundamental shortcomings warned of at the euro's creation in 1997, combined with the excessive sovereign debts run up since then, have finally expressed themselves at a scale too large to be contained any longer.

Today, Alasdair details in depth the huge and serious challenges facing Greece and the major Eurozone countries and the likely impacts of the fast-dwindling options left remaining.

He sees no happy ending to this story, no outcome in which serious pain and permanent behavior change can be avoided. And for those looking for shelter from the unfolding economic storm, he sees few options besides the precious metals (which he believes are severely underpriced at the moment): 

 

Executive Summary

  • Where the gold price is most likely to go from here
  • History rhymes: Why today resembles 2008
  • How to best deploy your capital once the central banks announce the next round of money printing
  • Why prudent actions you can take now are so much more valuable than the options you'll have once the correction is underway

Part I: Get Ready: We’re About To Have Another 2008-Style Crisis

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: What To Do When the Central Banks Blink

Where Gold Goes From Here

While I personally would not part with my gold these days, and certainly not at these prices, I do expect the price of gold to drop going forward.

The reason is that gold has multiple elements contributing to its price, and some of that is attributable to the speculation and rampant liquidity that is sloshing through the system. Various hedge funds and other speculative funds are holding quite a bit of gold, mainly the paper variety, and when they dump that because the tables have turned and/or their liquidity sources have dried up, they will sell that paper gold and the apparent price will go down.

Further, weak hands holding gold via the GLD ETF will be shaken out during a liquidity crisis, putting physical gold back onto the market.

However, it is my strongest contention that this will represent a very nice buying opportunity. Someday, nobody knows when, the central banks will announce another big round of thin-air money printing and that will be a turning point in the price of gold (and many other things, including stocks and commodities).

What To Do When the Central Banks Blink
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Where the gold price is most likely to go from here
  • History rhymes: Why today resembles 2008
  • How to best deploy your capital once the central banks announce the next round of money printing
  • Why prudent actions you can take now are so much more valuable than the options you'll have once the correction is underway

Part I: Get Ready: We’re About To Have Another 2008-Style Crisis

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: What To Do When the Central Banks Blink

Where Gold Goes From Here

While I personally would not part with my gold these days, and certainly not at these prices, I do expect the price of gold to drop going forward.

The reason is that gold has multiple elements contributing to its price, and some of that is attributable to the speculation and rampant liquidity that is sloshing through the system. Various hedge funds and other speculative funds are holding quite a bit of gold, mainly the paper variety, and when they dump that because the tables have turned and/or their liquidity sources have dried up, they will sell that paper gold and the apparent price will go down.

Further, weak hands holding gold via the GLD ETF will be shaken out during a liquidity crisis, putting physical gold back onto the market.

However, it is my strongest contention that this will represent a very nice buying opportunity. Someday, nobody knows when, the central banks will announce another big round of thin-air money printing and that will be a turning point in the price of gold (and many other things, including stocks and commodities).

I want to take the lowest risk approach to the future. So much is riding on it.

Personally I feel that the scientific progress we have made over the last few hundred years is astounding. I don’t want to lose that. I think that is a gift to the future, and I don’t want to run the risk of a collapse that could destroy all that we have.

Even if you think the collapse is a low probability let’s say it's 5%, 10% probability it is an asymmetric risk. The downsides of not treating it seriously are huge.

I mean, you buy fire insurance for your house, even if it is a 0.1% probability that your house will burn down in your lifetime. But the consequences are so negative that you do it. And when you are talking about the accomplishments of all civilization, you need to buy insurance and treat that with the respect it deserves.

Tom Murphy, associate professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego, has mapped the distance between the earth and the moon to within a millimeter and built instruments to study colliding galaxies. We feel comfortable saying he's a pretty smart guy as well as an optimist about what human ingenuity and technology can do for the advancement of society.

In 2004, he became intrigued with the global energy situation and brought his disciplined, empirical approach to bear. He set out to determine which new sources were going to pick up the slack once fossil fuels began becoming scarce. Looking back, he says the theme underlying his findings was "disappointment."

The math showed him that there simply will not be nearly enough BTU yield from alternative energy sources to meet the rising global demand. In fact, if anything, his investigation made him realize how few minds today are truly aware of the extraordinary energy throughput we are getting from fossil fuels.

Tom Murphy: Time to Be Honest With Ourselves About Our Looming Energy Risks

I want to take the lowest risk approach to the future. So much is riding on it.

Personally I feel that the scientific progress we have made over the last few hundred years is astounding. I don’t want to lose that. I think that is a gift to the future, and I don’t want to run the risk of a collapse that could destroy all that we have.

Even if you think the collapse is a low probability let’s say it's 5%, 10% probability it is an asymmetric risk. The downsides of not treating it seriously are huge.

I mean, you buy fire insurance for your house, even if it is a 0.1% probability that your house will burn down in your lifetime. But the consequences are so negative that you do it. And when you are talking about the accomplishments of all civilization, you need to buy insurance and treat that with the respect it deserves.

Tom Murphy, associate professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego, has mapped the distance between the earth and the moon to within a millimeter and built instruments to study colliding galaxies. We feel comfortable saying he's a pretty smart guy as well as an optimist about what human ingenuity and technology can do for the advancement of society.

In 2004, he became intrigued with the global energy situation and brought his disciplined, empirical approach to bear. He set out to determine which new sources were going to pick up the slack once fossil fuels began becoming scarce. Looking back, he says the theme underlying his findings was "disappointment."

The math showed him that there simply will not be nearly enough BTU yield from alternative energy sources to meet the rising global demand. In fact, if anything, his investigation made him realize how few minds today are truly aware of the extraordinary energy throughput we are getting from fossil fuels.

In Part II of Chris’ detailed interview with Alasdair Macleod on the inevitable outcome to the European credit crisis (click here for Part I), the discussion deepens, exploring a number of important topics including:

  • What the key risks are at this stage
  • What the most likely scenarios are
  • Gold ownership and captial controls
  • What options concerned individuals should consider

Alasdair Macleod (Part II): How a Collapsing Europe will Cause Asset Revaluations Worldwide
PREVIEW

In Part II of Chris’ detailed interview with Alasdair Macleod on the inevitable outcome to the European credit crisis (click here for Part I), the discussion deepens, exploring a number of important topics including:

  • What the key risks are at this stage
  • What the most likely scenarios are
  • Gold ownership and captial controls
  • What options concerned individuals should consider

Alasdair Macleod, publisher of Financeandeconomics.org, sees little room for a happy ending to the worsening European credit crisis.

In this interview, he builds on his excellent synopsis from earlier in the week that detailed how the crisis originated, essentially embedding a fundamental structural shortcoming into the entire Eurozone construct starting back in 1997. This flawed monetary model was exploited for temporal gain, and it worked very well, as long as the pie was expanding and nobody was looking too carefully at the mounting imbalances created as it chugged along beautifully. Everybody was getting rich on their Mediterranean villas going up in price almost daily.

This whole thing was bound to work until, mathematically, it couldn’t work.

Alasdair Macleod: Why the Europe Situation is Certain to Get Worse

Alasdair Macleod, publisher of Financeandeconomics.org, sees little room for a happy ending to the worsening European credit crisis.

In this interview, he builds on his excellent synopsis from earlier in the week that detailed how the crisis originated, essentially embedding a fundamental structural shortcoming into the entire Eurozone construct starting back in 1997. This flawed monetary model was exploited for temporal gain, and it worked very well, as long as the pie was expanding and nobody was looking too carefully at the mounting imbalances created as it chugged along beautifully. Everybody was getting rich on their Mediterranean villas going up in price almost daily.

This whole thing was bound to work until, mathematically, it couldn’t work.

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