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Chris Martenson

Image | Patrick Killelea: What Every Homebuyer (and Homeowner) Should Know Now
Patrick Killelea: What Every Homebuyer (and Homeowner) Should Know Now

For many, the collapse of the housing bubble was the trigger that began the era of economic slowdown Americans find themselves mired in.

But recently there have been growing reports in the media of a housing "recovery." So we've invited Patrick Killelea, founder of the popular housing site Patrick.net and author of The Housing Trap: How Buyers Are Captured and Abused and How to Defend Yourself, to clarify the situation.

The short answer is this: While there are some markets where home prices are back in line with both fundamental and historic norms, buyers still need to exert caution when making a purchase.

Patrick Killelea: What Every Homebuyer (and Homeowner) Should Know Now

For many, the collapse of the housing bubble was the trigger that began the era of economic slowdown Americans find themselves mired in.

But recently there have been growing reports in the media of a housing "recovery." So we've invited Patrick Killelea, founder of the popular housing site Patrick.net and author of The Housing Trap: How Buyers Are Captured and Abused and How to Defend Yourself, to clarify the situation.

The short answer is this: While there are some markets where home prices are back in line with both fundamental and historic norms, buyers still need to exert caution when making a purchase.

Image | Off the Cuff: Forces of Nature
Off the Cuff: Forces of Nature
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Behind the Bogus Jobs Numbers
    • Overestimates in the hundreds of thousands
  • The Massive Cost of Hurricane Sandy
    • The indirect costs are as concerning as the direct ones
  • Oh…Canada
    • No longer immune to the ills of its trading partners
  • The Fallible Fed
    • Out of arrows at this point?

The carnage of Hurricane Sandy provided a distraction this week from the election spectacle. Expect only a few more weeks of juiced-up numbers (e.g., jobs) and economic claptrap (the rebuilding from Sandy will be an economic boon and increase GDP!) before the unavoidable sinks in: There is no more carpet left to sweep things under. Recession is claiming nearly all of the G7 countries, the $20+ billion cleanup price tag from Sandy will be a sucker-punch to the already-toddering U.S. economy, and our leaders – irrespective of who wins the Presidential elections this month – are out of options. The forces of nature have been at bay long enough – and will now exert themselves, with prejudice.
Off the Cuff: Forces of Nature
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Behind the Bogus Jobs Numbers
    • Overestimates in the hundreds of thousands
  • The Massive Cost of Hurricane Sandy
    • The indirect costs are as concerning as the direct ones
  • Oh…Canada
    • No longer immune to the ills of its trading partners
  • The Fallible Fed
    • Out of arrows at this point?

The carnage of Hurricane Sandy provided a distraction this week from the election spectacle. Expect only a few more weeks of juiced-up numbers (e.g., jobs) and economic claptrap (the rebuilding from Sandy will be an economic boon and increase GDP!) before the unavoidable sinks in: There is no more carpet left to sweep things under. Recession is claiming nearly all of the G7 countries, the $20+ billion cleanup price tag from Sandy will be a sucker-punch to the already-toddering U.S. economy, and our leaders – irrespective of who wins the Presidential elections this month – are out of options. The forces of nature have been at bay long enough – and will now exert themselves, with prejudice.
Image | Off the Cuff: On the Knife’s Edge
Off the Cuff: On the Knife’s Edge
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Phony employment
    • More workers being hired to do less work more poorly
  • Phony hopium
    • Despite QE3, over half the companies reporting Q3 earnings are under analyst expectations
  • Germany entering recession
    • The EU's only functioning economic engine is sputtering
  • Japan on the knife's edge
    • Between crushing deflation and currency destruction
  • Time for our politicians to clarify our priorities
    • What are we not going to do?

As we enter the fall and the upcoming elections, we find the status quo is becoming less and less sustainable on many fronts.

[Short summary tonight due to WS game 2. With all respect to Bob and Jim H — Go Giants!!]
Off the Cuff: On the Knife’s Edge
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Phony employment
    • More workers being hired to do less work more poorly
  • Phony hopium
    • Despite QE3, over half the companies reporting Q3 earnings are under analyst expectations
  • Germany entering recession
    • The EU's only functioning economic engine is sputtering
  • Japan on the knife's edge
    • Between crushing deflation and currency destruction
  • Time for our politicians to clarify our priorities
    • What are we not going to do?

As we enter the fall and the upcoming elections, we find the status quo is becoming less and less sustainable on many fronts.

[Short summary tonight due to WS game 2. With all respect to Bob and Jim H — Go Giants!!]
Image | If We’re Ever Going to Take Control of Our Destiny, the Time is Now
If We’re Ever Going to Take Control of Our Destiny, the Time is Now
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Adapting our behavior is a must at this point. We really don't have the option not to.
  • The number of claims on real wealth is increasing. How much of the "real wealth" do you own?
  • Our economy is now truly a confidence-based system. What will be the fallout when that confidence falters?
  • What are the key knowns & unknowns we need to be addressing now?

If you have not yet read Part I: In a Bad Spot, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What is completely unknown at this point is what will happen to our very complex and interwoven financial system when it finally comes to grips with the idea that old-style growth is never coming back.  One worrisome idea is that it will experience something akin to cardiac arrest and simply break down one day. 

Maybe this will happen, maybe not.  I will note that the degree to which the central banks have set themselves up as the ultimate saviors of the system has both an upside and a downside, and it is the downside that worries me the most at this point.

While all the trillions of dollars of intervention have stabilized the system, which I consider to be a good thing, the downside is that the central banks have placed themselves in a position where they had better succeed.  If not?  Then we discover just how important confidence is to a monetary system built, owned, and operated on trust.  My guess is "very."

If We’re Ever Going to Take Control of Our Destiny, the Time is Now
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Adapting our behavior is a must at this point. We really don't have the option not to.
  • The number of claims on real wealth is increasing. How much of the "real wealth" do you own?
  • Our economy is now truly a confidence-based system. What will be the fallout when that confidence falters?
  • What are the key knowns & unknowns we need to be addressing now?

If you have not yet read Part I: In a Bad Spot, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What is completely unknown at this point is what will happen to our very complex and interwoven financial system when it finally comes to grips with the idea that old-style growth is never coming back.  One worrisome idea is that it will experience something akin to cardiac arrest and simply break down one day. 

Maybe this will happen, maybe not.  I will note that the degree to which the central banks have set themselves up as the ultimate saviors of the system has both an upside and a downside, and it is the downside that worries me the most at this point.

While all the trillions of dollars of intervention have stabilized the system, which I consider to be a good thing, the downside is that the central banks have placed themselves in a position where they had better succeed.  If not?  Then we discover just how important confidence is to a monetary system built, owned, and operated on trust.  My guess is "very."

Image | In a Bad Spot
In a Bad Spot

After traveling some, speaking with lots of people, reading, and digesting, I cannot escape the conclusion that things remain hopelessly off track.  Whatever form of 'recovery' is being sought here simply will not arrive.

The core of my views is shaped by the idea that the very thing being sought, more economic growth (and exponential growth, at that), is exactly the root of the problem.  I suppose I would take a similarly dim view of an alcoholic trying to drink their way back to health as I do the increasingly interventionist central bank and associated political policies the world over.

Go on then, drink more, but I think we all know what the result will be.
In a Bad Spot

After traveling some, speaking with lots of people, reading, and digesting, I cannot escape the conclusion that things remain hopelessly off track.  Whatever form of 'recovery' is being sought here simply will not arrive.

The core of my views is shaped by the idea that the very thing being sought, more economic growth (and exponential growth, at that), is exactly the root of the problem.  I suppose I would take a similarly dim view of an alcoholic trying to drink their way back to health as I do the increasingly interventionist central bank and associated political policies the world over.

Go on then, drink more, but I think we all know what the result will be.
Image | Ask the Adviser: Creating a Sustainable Portfolio
Ask the Adviser: Creating a Sustainable Portfolio

In this latest installment of Ask the Advisor, Chris and Bob Fitzwilson focus on how to approach creating an investment portfolio with the tenets of the Crash Course in mind.

Bob explains how he believes a prudent process starts with securing the essentials for resiliency; in other words, investing in the resources that will sustain yourself and your family regardless of how the financial markets perform. These are things like your local food supply, your homestead, your health, etc. Only after you've created a plan for procuring those should you then focus on what do with any funds left over.

Then the focus should be on your desired lifestyle. Ask yourself: How much do I need to meet my base-case needs and wishes for my family?

Ask the Adviser: Creating a Sustainable Portfolio

In this latest installment of Ask the Advisor, Chris and Bob Fitzwilson focus on how to approach creating an investment portfolio with the tenets of the Crash Course in mind.

Bob explains how he believes a prudent process starts with securing the essentials for resiliency; in other words, investing in the resources that will sustain yourself and your family regardless of how the financial markets perform. These are things like your local food supply, your homestead, your health, etc. Only after you've created a plan for procuring those should you then focus on what do with any funds left over.

Then the focus should be on your desired lifestyle. Ask yourself: How much do I need to meet my base-case needs and wishes for my family?

Image | Off the Cuff: Picking Our Poison
Off the Cuff: Picking Our Poison
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • The Presidential Debates
    • The only big winner is the status quo
  • Surprisingly Rosy Data
    • Reality? Or election year fudging?
  • The Universality of Human Behavior
    • Chris' UK trip reaffirms his confidence in his forecasts
  • Recession vs Higher Deficits
    • Picking our poison
  • Holding Gold
    • The trend is gaining in popularity

Despite the posturing and soundbyte zingers, both Chris and Mish do not find any substantial difference between the two presidential candidates when it comes to the Three Es.
Off the Cuff: Picking Our Poison
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • The Presidential Debates
    • The only big winner is the status quo
  • Surprisingly Rosy Data
    • Reality? Or election year fudging?
  • The Universality of Human Behavior
    • Chris' UK trip reaffirms his confidence in his forecasts
  • Recession vs Higher Deficits
    • Picking our poison
  • Holding Gold
    • The trend is gaining in popularity

Despite the posturing and soundbyte zingers, both Chris and Mish do not find any substantial difference between the two presidential candidates when it comes to the Three Es.
Image | Eric Hunsader: Investors Need to Realize the Machines Have Taken Over
Eric Hunsader: Investors Need to Realize the Machines Have Taken Over

In the blink of an eye, the market moves what used to take humans thirty minutes.

High frequency trading (HFT) deeply concerns Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex. He worries that today's investors, our regulators – heck, even the HFT algorithms themselves – don't fully understand the risks market prices face in the brave new era of bot-dominated trading.

For instance, Hunsader estimates that HFT algorithms are responsible for 70%(!) of all completed transactions on our exchanges, and for 99.9%(!!!) of all exchange quotes.

The pictures of trading floors you see on TV, where the people in bright jackets appear frantically busy in making their trades, have no bearing – claims Hunsader – on the actual trading action. The real action happens across fiber-optic cables, on racks of servers in cooled rooms, where an arms race defined by cable length and switching speeds is being waged

The reality is that the machines have taken over.
Eric Hunsader: Investors Need to Realize the Machines Have Taken Over

In the blink of an eye, the market moves what used to take humans thirty minutes.

High frequency trading (HFT) deeply concerns Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex. He worries that today's investors, our regulators – heck, even the HFT algorithms themselves – don't fully understand the risks market prices face in the brave new era of bot-dominated trading.

For instance, Hunsader estimates that HFT algorithms are responsible for 70%(!) of all completed transactions on our exchanges, and for 99.9%(!!!) of all exchange quotes.

The pictures of trading floors you see on TV, where the people in bright jackets appear frantically busy in making their trades, have no bearing – claims Hunsader – on the actual trading action. The real action happens across fiber-optic cables, on racks of servers in cooled rooms, where an arms race defined by cable length and switching speeds is being waged

The reality is that the machines have taken over.
Image | Nanex: Why You Can Literally
Nanex: Why You Can Literally

In the blink of an eye, the market moves what used to take humans thiry minutes

High Frequency Trading (HFT) deeply concerns Erik Hunsader, founder of Nanex. He worries that today's investors, our regulators — heck, even the algorithms themselves — don't fully understand the risks
Nanex: Why You Can Literally

In the blink of an eye, the market moves what used to take humans thiry minutes

High Frequency Trading (HFT) deeply concerns Erik Hunsader, founder of Nanex. He worries that today's investors, our regulators — heck, even the algorithms themselves — don't fully understand the risks
Image | Off the Cuff: When Trillions Aren’t Enough
Off the Cuff: When Trillions Aren’t Enough
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • No Joy on Wall Street
    • Banks cry poor despite record profits
  • The Invisible Recession
    • Hidden by faulty data
  • The Fallible Fed
    • It really doesn't know what's going on
  • Our Taxing Tax System
    • The case for simplification

It's clear to all that QE3 is a continued push by the Federal Reserve to rescue the banking system. But why is it necessary?
Off the Cuff: When Trillions Aren’t Enough
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • No Joy on Wall Street
    • Banks cry poor despite record profits
  • The Invisible Recession
    • Hidden by faulty data
  • The Fallible Fed
    • It really doesn't know what's going on
  • Our Taxing Tax System
    • The case for simplification

It's clear to all that QE3 is a continued push by the Federal Reserve to rescue the banking system. But why is it necessary?
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