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Chris Martenson

At the UK Parliament Last Night

Last night I spoke about the Three Es to a large audience in the Grand Committee Room of the UK Parliament, which was indeed very grand.

I was told it was the largest audience they’d had so far in the series, and the questions afterwards came steadily, until we had to close things off. Because this was the one of only two openly public events on my tour, we had quite a few Crash Course watchers in the audience. I am very glad they were there, because a packed room indicates interest, which means politicians might take a different notice of the material than they otherwise would.

I am not at all clear on who was in the room, in terms of politicians, but I am speculating that there were a few in the audience.

At the UK Parliament Last Night

PREVIEW

Last night I spoke about the Three Es to a large audience in the Grand Committee Room of the UK Parliament, which was indeed very grand.

I am not at all clear on who was in the room, in terms of politicians, but I am speculating that there were a few in the audience.

The Future Has Arrived

Executive Summary

The future has arrived.
The “Broken Windows Theory” explains a lack of media coverage.
Detroit is falling apart.
Refugees are leaving urban centers.
North Dakota’s homeless numbers are increasing.
Food stamps use rises sharply.
State of distress – the public vs. private battle intensifies.
We need to change our stories.

One of the questions I am most frequently asked is, “What will happen when…?” As in, what will happen:

When things finally take a turn for the worse?
When the dollar dives?
When the government hits a fiscal wall?

Essentially, these are all forms of the basic question, “What will happen when the future finally arrives?”

My work, as I see it, is to help you accept the following statement: The future has arrived.

It is already here.

The Future Has Arrived

Executive Summary

The future has arrived.
The “Broken Windows Theory” explains a lack of media coverage.
Detroit is falling apart.
Refugees are leaving urban centers.
North Dakota’s homeless numbers are increasing.
Food stamps use rises sharply.
State of distress – the public vs. private battle intensifies.
We need to change our stories.

One of the questions I am most frequently asked is, “What will happen when…?” As in, what will happen:

When things finally take a turn for the worse?
When the dollar dives?
When the government hits a fiscal wall?

Essentially, these are all forms of the basic question, “What will happen when the future finally arrives?”

My work, as I see it, is to help you accept the following statement: The future has arrived.

It is already here.

Update from Scotland

PREVIEW

My goodness, Scotland is a wonderful place.

This is my first trip here, and I’ve found the people welcoming and the architecture and ‘feel’ simply awe-inspiring. My hosts were just fantastic and took excellent care of me, which was important, because my schedule was draining.

Update from Scotland

PREVIEW

My goodness, Scotland is a wonderful place.

Update on the UK Trip

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I’ll use this entry to keep updating my UK trip experiences for any who are interested in what’s going on over here.

On a personal note, I came over with a cold that – *shudder* – felt and sounded like a case of laryngitis on the ride over, and for my first appearance at the CSFI event, which I literally croaked my way through. Fortunately, with lots of vitamin supplements and happy thoughts, I seem to have converted this into a standard head and chest cold.

The CSFI event yesterday was held in one of those places that says “establishment” – oak-paneled for all 20 feet of the wall height, and leather chairs arranged around a 20×10 foot walnut table, burnished by the centuries. The other panelist was from the Bank of England, and I give her enormous credit for having trundled through a large portion of the Crash Course in order to formulate her remarks/rebuttal to my presentation. The other attendees were mostly very senior members of large banks and consultancies, but also represented a few other professions.

Update on the UK Trip

PREVIEW

I’ll use this entry to keep updating my UK trip experiences for any who are interested in what’s going on over here.

From The Outside In – PIIGS Update

PREVIEW

When markets unravel big-time, the weakness almost always starts on the outside and moves inward towards the center. We refer to this phenomenon using the phrase “from the outside in.” For more of my thoughts on this concept, listen to my February 2009 podcast, also titled From The Outside In.

I’ve been keeping one eye on Greece’s debt situation for awhile because it fits the pattern…a weaker state begins to fail, the contagion spreads, and the next thing you know, the world financial markets are in a tailspin. At least that’s the potential.

From The Outside In – PIIGS Update

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Fuzzy Numbers – Retail Sales

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Today the Commerce Department reported excellent economic news for January; retail sales climbed another 0.5%, the third gain in four months, and were up a hefty 4.7%, compared to a year ago.

U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — January sales at U.S. retailers climbed more than anticipated, while consumer confidence unexpectedly fell this month from a two-year high, showing a recovery in household spending may be gradual.

Retail purchases increased 0.5 percent, the third gain in the past four months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 73.7 from 74.4 the prior month.

Compared to January last year, sales were up 4.7 percent.

Unfortunately, somebody forgot to tell the states this excellent news, because their sales tax data for January is still miserable.

Fuzzy Numbers – Retail Sales

PREVIEW

Today the Commerce Department reported excellent economic news for January; retail sales climbed another 0.5%, the third gain in four months, and were up a hefty 4.7%, compared to a year ago.

U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — January sales at U.S. retailers climbed more than anticipated, while consumer confidence unexpectedly fell this month from a two-year high, showing a recovery in household spending may be gradual.

Retail purchases increased 0.5 percent, the third gain in the past four months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 73.7 from 74.4 the prior month.

Compared to January last year, sales were up 4.7 percent.

Unfortunately, somebody forgot to tell the states this excellent news, because their sales tax data for January is still miserable.

Austerity or Money Printing?

I was asked to write a once-a-month Market Observation for Financial Sense. Here’s the first one (posted today, Feb 10):

From time to time, I think it’s a good idea to stop squinting at the short-term market wiggles and pull our heads back for a wide-angle view. Now would be a good time, so that’s what we’re going to do. For the record, I also happen to believe that close-up market analysis loses some of its potency during times of immense official intervention. As with any subsidy program, prices become distorted and often fail to tell the real story, which is absolutely true with respect to interest rates and, by extension, the risk premium for stocks.

Back to the story. Where the current crisis has been described using millions of words in thousands of articles packed with arcane acronyms (such as TALF, CDO, and CMBS), perplexing regulatory lapses and with a degree of complexity that dwarfs the Apollo moon mission, I can explain why the whole thing happened using just three words.

Too. Much. Debt.

Austerity or Money Printing?

I was asked to write a once-a-month Market Observation for Financial Sense. Here’s the first one (posted today, Feb 10):

Too. Much. Debt.

The Emperor Has No Clothes

[Note: This is a recent Martenson Insider post that I am making public. A couple of members thought this topic deserved wider attention and conversation, and I agreed. Thanks go to MikeP for the title change idea.]

The NYT had an editorial this past weekend (Feb 6, 2010) that trotted out some dangerous mistruths about the deficit and framed the issue as a left vs. right political game.

I hardly know where to start, but I will note that we’ve had massive accumulations of new debts under every single administration since the early 1980s, and that it hasn’t seemed to matter which party has controlled which branches of government. One could be forgiven for suspecting that, when it comes to deficit spending, there aren’t two parties, but only one.

The real truth is that we have a culture of reckless spending in DC that transcends either or both parties, and I always lose a bit of trust in those who attempt to paint it otherwise. This is simply not a partisan issue.

The Emperor Has No Clothes

The NYT had an editorial this past weekend (Feb 6, 2010) that trotted out some dangerous mistruths about the deficit and framed the issue as a left vs. right political game.

The (Real) Truth About the Deficit

PREVIEW

The NYT had an editorial this weekend that trotted out some dangerous mistruths about the deficit and framed the issue as a left vs. right political game.

The (Real) Truth About the Deficit

PREVIEW

The NYT had an editorial this weekend that trotted out some dangerous mistruths about the deficit and framed the issue as a left vs. right political game.

The Mystery of Falling Unemployment

PREVIEW

In January, the rate of unemployment was said to have reduced from 10.0% to 9.7%. I cannot resist wading into this story, although I tried. Here goes.

One of the (many) quirks in the US methodology for measuring employment and unemployment is that two entirely different methods are used and reported. One, called the ‘establishment survey,’ gives us the headline job gains or losses that are reported. For January 2010, that number was -20,000, indicating that more people were out of work in January than December.

The other, the ‘household survey,’ delivers us the rate of unemployment, which fell from -10.0% to -9.7%, indicating that fewer people were out of work in January than December.

These are entirely separate surveys, and they are nearly impossible to directly compare. Still, over time, they should at least be directionally aligned, and this departure between the two will resolve itself sooner or later.

I believe that the household number is overstating the gains, and here’s why.

The Mystery of Falling Unemployment

PREVIEW

In January, the rate of unemployment was said to have reduced from 10.0% to 9.7%. I cannot resist wading into this story, although I tried. Here goes.

The other, the ‘household survey,’ delivers us the rate of unemployment, which fell from -10.0% to -9.7%, indicating that fewer people were out of work in January than December.

I believe that the household number is overstating the gains, and here’s why.

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Chris Martenson

At the UK Parliament Last Night

At the UK Parliament Last Night

The Future Has Arrived

The Future Has Arrived

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Executive Summary

The Future Has Arrived

The Future Has Arrived

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Executive Summary

Update from Scotland

Update from Scotland

Update on the UK Trip

Update on the UK Trip

From The Outside In – PIIGS Update

From The Outside In – PIIGS Update

Fuzzy Numbers – Retail Sales

Fuzzy Numbers – Retail Sales

Austerity or Money Printing?

Austerity or Money Printing?

The Emperor Has No Clothes

The Emperor Has No Clothes

The (Real) Truth About the Deficit

The (Real) Truth About the Deficit

The Mystery of Falling Unemployment

The Mystery of Falling Unemployment

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