Well, here we are in early April, right at the end of both the stimulus and the monetary largesse of the Fed (at least those portions that we are told about), during the period of time when I said that the economy would either have to be in serious lift-off mode or we’d be hearing about new thin-air money programs.
The economic news pouring out of the financial media networks is so bullish, it would seem that we are back on the path to economic nirvana.
Here are a few choice items from the past few days:
Employment in U.S. Probably Increased by Most in Three Years
April 2 (Bloomberg) — Employment in the U.S. probably grew in March by the most in three years as the economy expanded, the weather improved and the government hired temporary workers to conduct the census, economists said before a report today.
Payrolls climbed by 184,000 workers last month, the most since March 2007, after falling by 36,000 in February, according to the median estimate of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate may have held at 9.7 percent for a third consecutive month.
Caterpillar Inc. is among companies adding staff, showing the recovery that began last year is on the verge of creating the jobs needed to lift consumer spending and sustain the expansion. At the same time, unemployment may take time to recede as formerly discouraged employees flood the labor force looking for work, signaling the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low in coming months.
“As demand improves, just about every business is looking to add workers where they have to,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “The job gains are going to be very supportive of consumer spending.”
Note: That last statement is very odd…most analysts conclude that the massive numbers of people already hired in temporary positions would be elevated to full-time status before new hires would be made. This means that no new hiring would be reported, because the part-time people are already counted as employed. Instead, we’d expect the “hours worked” component of the employment report to start inching up.
U.S. Easter Spending Will Increase for First Time Since 2007
April 2 (Bloomberg) — U.S.