Happy post 4th of July to all US subscribers. I continue to try to make sense of the world, which is a deeply challenging proposition presently.
But it all keeps looping back around to it all being intentional. The strikes deep into Russia by US-backed Ukrainian forces are not something I ever expected to see. Last I checked, Russia is a nuclear superpower. Who pokes the bear and why? What do they hope to provoke? How does that serve anybody’s interests? Read on for more…
Maximum Oil bearishness
I am struggling to understand why “traders” have decided that now is the time to max short oil.
This is the highest Brent oil contract short positioning and the lowest onshore inventory in history:
(Source HFI Research)
As a reminder, 13 full days of daily global oil consumption have vanished:
🇺🇸 Thirteen full days of global oil supply have already vanished from the market, and most people are still arguing about conspiracy theories.Philip Pilkington cut through the noise and went straight to the IEA data."Daily consumption is 100 million barrels of oil a day. So… https://t.co/VSAE1o5AJu pic.twitter.com/81zvhVFCMZ
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 4, 2026
Managed Money traders have not been this short (i.e., bearish) on oil at any other time over the past 15 years:
This is completely insane…or evidence of official use of paper shorts to drive oil prices down. What the chart says is that exactly zero other times in the past 15 years have MM's been this short oil. Outside of a massive global recession (or manipulation), it's difficult to… https://t.co/LtRNzIXsAI
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) July 5, 2026
This means either (a) there’s no risk at all in the world to oil flows (*snork*), (b) there’s a ripper of a recession underway that nobody knows about, or (c) the government is buying and paying for those shorts to manipulate the price of oil lower.
I didn’t have to look very hard. Here’s some oil risk:
The probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 has recently fallen from 90% to 73%.China saved the world by importing many hundreds of millions fewer barrels of oil.Will China save the world again in the second half of 2026? https://t.co/9KEJ5cngLl pic.twitter.com/RlZC4c1pRK
— Karel Mercx (@KarelMercx) July 5, 2026
And how about demand? Well, there’s been no demand destruction for jet fuel:
Reminder that, many Asian and MidEast countries (Europeans as well) cut flights due to higher jet fuel prices due to the closure of SOH, well that demand is expected to come rushing back ..in fact we are already seeing this in the data>> Jet Fuel Demand to Rise, Led by Asia and… pic.twitter.com/KOBkr59jQj
— Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) July 5, 2026
Flights are up and heading higher:
According to Eurocontrol 7-day average is at +1.4% versus 2019 levels (red line); previous week +0.6% #oott pic.twitter.com/vhgAfCnGFj
— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) July 5, 2026
What’s the plan? It seems
by davefairtex 
