Geopolitics
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has reportedly ordered forces to continue decisive operations against the U.S. and Israel during a meeting with Major General Ali Abdollahi, amid reports of his recovery from minor injuries sustained earlier in the war. Iranian parliament spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei stated that restraint has ended, with plans to strike U.S. bases and vessels in response to violations, including recent U.S. bombings of Iran’s coast.
Relatedly, Iran reportedly deployed at least 16 Ghadir-class midget submarines, each carrying two torpedoes or C-704 anti-ship missiles, in operational positions in the Strait of Hormuz to counter U.S. warships. Rear Admiral Shahram Irani described the “Persian Gulf Dolphins” as trigger-ready for asymmetric warfare and prolonged seabed surveillance. This comes after the U.S. Navy disclosed that an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine arrived in Gibraltar en route to the Mediterranean and is reportedly likely to enter Middle East waters.
Lastly, the Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates conducted secret strikes on Iran, including an early April attack on the Lavan Island refinery that sparked a large fire and reportedly sidelined much of its capacity for months. Iran reportedly responded with over 2,800 missiles and drones targeting UAE population centers, energy infrastructure, and airports—the highest volume against any nation. The UAE, equipped with Mirage fighters, F-16s, and drones, maintains close U.S. military cooperation and has closed Iran-linked schools and clubs in Dubai while backing UN resolutions to break Iran’s Hormuz chokehold.
Energy
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that another two weeks of Hormuz disruption could lose 100 million barrels weekly, delaying market normalization to 2027 after a one-billion-barrel supply shock already offset partially by U.S. exports and Chinese import cuts. Even reopening now requires months for restarts and repairs.
Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Chris Wright is considering suspending the federal 18.4-cent-per-gallon gas tax and 24.3-cent diesel tax, a move endorsed temporarily by President Trump. Some states, like Indiana, suspended taxes, cutting 59.3 cents per gallon, while California’s 70.9-cent tax contributes to $6.15 averages.
In other news, a fire broke out at HF Sinclair’s 125,000-barrel-per-day Tulsa refinery, which processes sweet and some sour Canadian crude for Mid-Continent gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and renewables. The blaze follows PBF Energy’s fire at its 190,000-barrel-per-day Chalmette refinery near New Orleans and fits a global surge including Moscow, Australia, Mexico’s Dos Bocas, and others amid tight inventories and Hormuz disruptions. Happening within the same 24-hour period, Mexico’s Pemex reportedly extinguished a fire at its Oaxaca refinery, with six injured. HF Sinclair reported the Tulsa refinery fire was contained by its internal brigade with no injuries or production disruptions.
Lastly, turning to US grid concerns, PJM Interconnection, serving 67 million across 13 states, forecasts scarcity with data centers facing their first power cuts during peaks due to surging demand, retiring plants, and four-year construction delays. Its queue reopened to 220 gigawatts of requests. Transformer shortages, with years-long lead times from material and labor constraints plus foreign reliance, delay grid upgrades as AI data centers double power needs by 2030, risking blackouts in 37 states per NERC.
Preparedness
A recent report by Mark Shryock outlines the case for empty shelves in eight weeks. U.S. oil inventories have kept falling since the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28, 2026. The last buffer tanker (New Corolla) delivered its final 2 million barrels on May 3. Europe reached tank bottoms in May. The U.S. is expected to hit the same point around July 4, when pumps fail from low volumes and sediment. Even if the Strait reopens now, a 12–16 week lag means Midwest fuel relief may not arrive until late August or September.
Recent EIA data (week ending May 1) shows crude stocks down 2.3 million barrels, distillates down 1.3 million (11% below the five-year average and the lowest since 2005), and gasoline declining for the 11th week. Global deficit is running at 5.1 million barrels per day, with over one billion barrels already depleted. U.S. SPR is at 392.7 million barrels.
At current drawdown rates, widespread fuel shortages and empty shelves could begin in 4–8 weeks (mid-June to early July), worsening quickly after July 4.
Health
Former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Deborah Birx has advocated PCR testing for hantavirus linked to a cruise ship outbreak, suggesting tests for already disembarked passengers worldwide as 21st-century technology to detect early or asymptomatic cases. Birx referenced COVID lessons, stating populations are not tested enough to know subclinical spread and that tracking viruses through blood tests like PCR, rather than symptoms, proved effective. She noted that universities and schools stayed open during the pandemic via weekly testing and emphasized broader availability. Hantavirus, present for decades and primarily spread through rodent droppings with limited human-to-human transmission, prompted her call amid scrutiny of past measures like the 6-foot rule and extended lockdowns, which Birx’s 2022 book described as extended beyond the initial two weeks to gather data. Critics, including a hantavirus researcher, argued that mass PCR testing is unnecessary due to potential false positives and the virus’s primarily zoonotic nature.
Economy
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closed at $509.77 after a $511.68 intraday high, up 244 percent from its April 2025 low of $148.31 and 58 percent since mid-March, trading 62 percent above its 200-day moving average. Micron surged nearly 1,000 percent off lows, AMD 450 percent, and Nvidia 140 percent, with laggards leading amid AI capex, hyperscaler orders, and HBM shortages. The rally, steepening monthly, reflects multiples pricing 2026 earnings fully and portions of 2027-2028 growth in a cyclical sector. Some analysts cautioned the rally may price in earnings through 2028 amid cyclical risks reminiscent of past bubbles.
Privacy & Surveillance
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement surveillance tools, designed for immigration enforcement, have reportedly targeted American citizens, including Maine resident Liz McLellan, who photographed federal agents and later received a home visit warning. The system accesses data on over 300 million people via driver’s licenses (1 in 3 adults scanned, 3 in 4 accessible), utility records, and Palantir’s ELITE app for near real-time movement tracking. ICE spent $2.8 billion on such programs from 2008-2021. The Mobile Fortify app enables facial recognition and biometrics to query vehicles, addresses, and more, used against protesters who lost their TSA PreCheck status. Penlink geofences areas to track cell phones without warrants, drawing Fourth Amendment challenges akin to Carpenter v. United States. Florida wildlife commissions ran license plate lookups on Flock cameras for ICE. A border security official stated that U.S. citizens briefly detained during such operations are released once their identity is verified.
Sources
Eight Weeks to Empty Shelves: Tank Bottoms and the Road to Famine
Eight weeks to empty shelves. Sixty days to famine.
Source | Submitted by sand_kitty
Iran’s Midget Subs Deploy in Hormuz as US Nuclear Boomer Makes Rare Flex
Iran Deploys Combat-Ready Mini Subs In Hormuz As US Flexes Nuclear Submarine En Route
Birx Smirks: PCR Testing the Hantavirus Cure-All?
It’s never good to track viruses through symptoms; we should be tracking viruses through blood tests like PCR, we learned that with Covid.
Fire Engulfs HF Sinclair Tulsa Refinery Amid Global Surge in Blazes
There has been a notable uptick in “refinery fire” news stories, according to Bloomberg data
Parabolic Semiconductor Rally Pricing in 2028 Already
The parabolic semiconductor rally has been spectacular. The exit will be too.
Energy Secretary Eyes Gas Tax Suspension as Iran War Fuels $4.52 Pump Prices
Energy Secretary Open To Suspending US Gas Tax As Pump-Rage Surges
Aramco CEO Warns: Hormuz Disruption Could Delay Energy Market Normalization to 2027
If the Hormuz chokepoint is disrupted for another couple of weeks, then it would take the global energy market until 2027 to normalize.
Khamenei Orders Iranian Forces to Press Attacks on US and Israel
issued new directives and guidance for continuing operations and confronting enemies decisively
ICE’s Border Surveillance Dragnet Snares American Citizens
Surveillance technology acquired by the U.S. government for immigration enforcement is being deployed against American citizens
PJM’s Dire Warning: Data Centers First to Face Power Cuts as Grid Nears Collapse
From an era of managing surplus to an era of managing scarcity.
Transformer Shortage Cripples US Grid Amid AI Power Surge
The surge in electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centers is cited as a key driver.
UAE’s Secret Strikes on Iran: Lavan Island Refinery Hit in April
One strike in April hit an oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island
Source (Paywalled)
Pemex Extinguishes Oaxaca Refinery Fire, Six Injured
Mexico’s Pemex says fire inside its Oaxaca refinery fully extinguished, six injured
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: DD India, Prof. Martin Zizi, HF Sinclair, Tulsa World, NewsOn6, Lance Roberts, and MSN.
by spiritualwarrior 
