Well, that didn’t take long! Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell came out and admitted that inflation is not going away – but! – he also blamed tariffs for much of the rise. So much for trying to keep his job with Trump! That’s definitely not an approved White House narrative at the moment.
Paul Kiker and I discussed this and how the Fed has been actively and knowingly creating the widest wealth gap in US history, and doing it because of some misguided sense that a wealth gap is preferable to some honest price discovery in the financial ““markets.””

Not only did we both disagree with that approach on generational moral terms, but we feel it’s merely forestalling an eventual correction that will be larger and more painful as a result of all the Fed’s efforts to keep its bubble alive and growing.
We also discussed how the equity markets are now even more severely overvalued than last month. Again.

Meanwhile – don’t look now! – but recession indicators keep piling up with the Cass freight index plunging and long-time trucking professionals saying this:

But taking up some of that private sector economic slack is the federal government deficit spending like drunken sailors.
Even if the government is ‘successful’ in blunting the depth of a recession, we’ll all still have to pay for it in terms of higher inflation down the road. Pay now or pay later, that’s the store policy.
Paul and I both prefer the truth, however painful or unpleasant it may be. Because it’s only within the truth that a successful set of life and investment strategies can be carried out.
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