by
Chris Martenson
I’ll be on vacation with my family for the next two weeks, but rest assured that I will still have my finger on what is happening in the market (via the wonders of technology). I will make sure you have plenty to keep you busy while I am away. To start things off, here is a past Martenson Report that I am now making available for free to all registered users.
Charting a Course Through the Recession
This Martenson Report was written on May 27, 2008, almost exactly one year ago. We were already calling it a recession at that point. Now I would go so far as to call it a depression. But regardless of the word you use, the concepts in this report remain true to this day. It’s a good one to review. Grab a cup of coffee and a chart of the stock market that encompasses May of 2008 (try to remember where we were then), and see how this advice – all of it – turned out.
I missed a couple of calls here; that goes with the territory, but I am more than satisfied that my framework a year ago was essentially correct and therefore predictive.
“I’d rather be a year early than a day late…”
by Chris MartensonI’ll be on vacation with my family for the next two weeks, but rest assured that I will still have my finger on what is happening in the market (via the wonders of technology). I will make sure you have plenty to keep you busy while I am away. To start things off, here is a past Martenson Report that I am now making available for free to all registered users.
Charting a Course Through the Recession
This Martenson Report was written on May 27, 2008, almost exactly one year ago. We were already calling it a recession at that point. Now I would go so far as to call it a depression. But regardless of the word you use, the concepts in this report remain true to this day. It’s a good one to review. Grab a cup of coffee and a chart of the stock market that encompasses May of 2008 (try to remember where we were then), and see how this advice – all of it – turned out.
I missed a couple of calls here; that goes with the territory, but I am more than satisfied that my framework a year ago was essentially correct and therefore predictive.
by
Chris Martenson
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.
Link to: Inflation vs. Deflation – What Comes Next?
Here’s a snippet:
One of the key questions of our day, especially for those who have wealth to protect, is, “What’s going to happen to the dollar?” More specifically, do we foresee an increase in the value of money going forward (deflation), or a decrease in the value of money (inflation)? Should we reserve a small amount of concern for the possibility of hyperinflation, which means the rapid and often total destruction of a currency?
There happens to be a lot of discussion around this topic these days. Unfortunately, much of it is confusing and contradictory, because far too much misinformation is included in the mix. So let’s begin by getting ourselves on firm footing before we look at the data.
(…)
Inflation correlates poorly with growth in the monetary base, making that statistic relatively useless as a predictor of inflation. However, inflation correlates extremely well with growth in government spending, meaning that we’d do well to track that statistic closely.
The current economic crisis is being fought tooth and nail by a determined Federal Reserve (in the role of the "enabler") and an equally-determined US government (in the role of the heavy-lifter, assuming all the lion’s share of the long-term debt and risk). Together, these institutions have virtually consigned future generations to the enormous challenge of wrestling with bloated budgets in desperate need of trimming, further compounded by coinciding with periods of high inflation.
Martenson Report – Inflation vs. Deflation – What Comes Next?
by Chris MartensonThere’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.
Link to: Inflation vs. Deflation – What Comes Next?
Here’s a snippet:
One of the key questions of our day, especially for those who have wealth to protect, is, “What’s going to happen to the dollar?” More specifically, do we foresee an increase in the value of money going forward (deflation), or a decrease in the value of money (inflation)? Should we reserve a small amount of concern for the possibility of hyperinflation, which means the rapid and often total destruction of a currency?
There happens to be a lot of discussion around this topic these days. Unfortunately, much of it is confusing and contradictory, because far too much misinformation is included in the mix. So let’s begin by getting ourselves on firm footing before we look at the data.
(…)
Inflation correlates poorly with growth in the monetary base, making that statistic relatively useless as a predictor of inflation. However, inflation correlates extremely well with growth in government spending, meaning that we’d do well to track that statistic closely.
The current economic crisis is being fought tooth and nail by a determined Federal Reserve (in the role of the "enabler") and an equally-determined US government (in the role of the heavy-lifter, assuming all the lion’s share of the long-term debt and risk). Together, these institutions have virtually consigned future generations to the enormous challenge of wrestling with bloated budgets in desperate need of trimming, further compounded by coinciding with periods of high inflation.
by
Chris Martenson
One of my greatest joys in this line of work is getting to meet people who are actively engaged in creating the change they wish to see. This blog post is a guest contribution by Morgan Giddings and is the first of a two-part series that will address the ins, outs, hows, and whys of using bicycles for transportation.
Morgan is not only knowledgeable but experienced in actually using a bicycle as a primary means of transportation. Her full-time job and young children are part of that equation. As a father, I am quite impressed with all that this implies, and as someone who also actively translates what needs doing into real action, I am pleased to be on the same team with Morgan.
Please join me in welcoming her important contribution to our awareness of what is possible, as she shares her knowledge about the practical insertion of a bicycle into one’s daily routine.
Please note: I have started "The Definitive Bicycle Thread" in the Forums for ongoing discussion on this topic. Comments related to this blog post should be posted there.
Best,
Chris Martenson
Introduction
Bicycles were invented over 200 years ago and were used for many years as significant and efficient means of human transport. But over the past 40 years, bicycles lost their status in the US as human transportation vehicles, due to inexpensive oil and far-flung suburban development. Since both of those factors favored automobile usage, the bicycle industry responded by refocusing their marketing strategy to promote bikes as recreational objects, only to be carted out on weekends and vacation time.
A Quiet Revolution in Bicycles: Recapturing a Role as Utilitarian People-Movers (Part I)
by Chris MartensonOne of my greatest joys in this line of work is getting to meet people who are actively engaged in creating the change they wish to see. This blog post is a guest contribution by Morgan Giddings and is the first of a two-part series that will address the ins, outs, hows, and whys of using bicycles for transportation.
Morgan is not only knowledgeable but experienced in actually using a bicycle as a primary means of transportation. Her full-time job and young children are part of that equation. As a father, I am quite impressed with all that this implies, and as someone who also actively translates what needs doing into real action, I am pleased to be on the same team with Morgan.
Please join me in welcoming her important contribution to our awareness of what is possible, as she shares her knowledge about the practical insertion of a bicycle into one’s daily routine.
Please note: I have started "The Definitive Bicycle Thread" in the Forums for ongoing discussion on this topic. Comments related to this blog post should be posted there.
Best,
Chris Martenson
Introduction
Bicycles were invented over 200 years ago and were used for many years as significant and efficient means of human transport. But over the past 40 years, bicycles lost their status in the US as human transportation vehicles, due to inexpensive oil and far-flung suburban development. Since both of those factors favored automobile usage, the bicycle industry responded by refocusing their marketing strategy to promote bikes as recreational objects, only to be carted out on weekends and vacation time.
by
Chris Martenson
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.
This week I take a stroll through the consumer data – after all most of the economy rests with the consumer – to determine if I can find any ‘green shoots.’
Link to Green Shoots? Not Yet.
A snippet:
Executive summary
- No green shoots in the consumer data
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) is negative
- Consumer credit is negative
- Retail sales are negative
- Rail and port traffic is deeply negative
- Unemployment not as positive as presented
- State tax revenues are negative
- Federal tax receipts? Don’t ask.
Again this week I find myself sifting through mountains of data that are telling me one thing, while I read news accounts and official proclamations that suggest another. We do ourselves no favors by shielding ourselves from the hard truth.
There is much that we need to confront with respect to energy, transportation, food production, and living within our economic means. Because I do not yet see any official recognition of the possibility that a blind return to growth might actually be adding fuel to an already hot fire, I continue to do my work of reaching out to individuals and communities in an effort to get them to prepare.
I want to counter the recent incantations by the media, fiscal, and monetary authorities that "things are on the mend" and that there are green shoots sprouting all over the place. There are indeed some encouraging signs, but there are an equal number of discouraging signs. This is a time for caution, not complacency.
Let’s break down the economy into its biggest pieces and see what we can find in each of them.
New Martenson Report – Green Shoots? Not Yet.
by Chris MartensonThere’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.
This week I take a stroll through the consumer data – after all most of the economy rests with the consumer – to determine if I can find any ‘green shoots.’
Link to Green Shoots? Not Yet.
A snippet:
Executive summary
- No green shoots in the consumer data
- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) is negative
- Consumer credit is negative
- Retail sales are negative
- Rail and port traffic is deeply negative
- Unemployment not as positive as presented
- State tax revenues are negative
- Federal tax receipts? Don’t ask.
Again this week I find myself sifting through mountains of data that are telling me one thing, while I read news accounts and official proclamations that suggest another. We do ourselves no favors by shielding ourselves from the hard truth.
There is much that we need to confront with respect to energy, transportation, food production, and living within our economic means. Because I do not yet see any official recognition of the possibility that a blind return to growth might actually be adding fuel to an already hot fire, I continue to do my work of reaching out to individuals and communities in an effort to get them to prepare.
I want to counter the recent incantations by the media, fiscal, and monetary authorities that "things are on the mend" and that there are green shoots sprouting all over the place. There are indeed some encouraging signs, but there are an equal number of discouraging signs. This is a time for caution, not complacency.
Let’s break down the economy into its biggest pieces and see what we can find in each of them.
by
Chris Martenson
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members. This week I spell out the five high level elements that I regularly track to guide my understanding of where we are and where we are headed.
A snippet:
Executive Summary:
- What can we expect next, and how will we recognize it?
- A series of sharp, interrupted shocks is more likely than a major sudden collapse.
- Five game-changing events, what I call The Five Horsemen, will indicate that the rules have changed and a new reality is about to take over:
- The First Horseman: New credit growth falls below interest payments
- The Second Horseman: The Fed monetizes debt
- The Third Horseman: Government spending exceeds 10% of GDP
- The Fourth Horseman: The dollar goes down, while interest rates go up
- The Fifth (and final) Horseman: US debt becomes denominated in foreign currencies
Severe structural damage has already been inflicted on our economy. As I wrote two weeks ago in It Has Hit the Fan:
If you have been waiting for further confirmation about the direction of the economy, or waiting for a sign that it’s now time to get serious about preparing for a future filled with less, this report is written for you.
You are living in the midst of the collapse of western economies, which are moving from a more complicated state to a less complicated one. This is it. Keep a journal, because it’s happening right now.
After the Great Depression, many people remarked that it was only obvious in retrospect. While it was unfolding, things steadily eroded. But 75% of the workforce remained employed, while hopeful signs of progress were constantly trotted out by various politicians, private economists, and official-sounding government agencies. It is often quite difficult to appreciate the true magnitude of sweeping change while it is occurring.
The most pressing question now is this: What can we expect next, and when?
In this report, I will give you the precise combination of macro-events that will cause me to issue an alert and kick my thinking and actions into new orbits.
Best,
Chris Martenson
The Five Horsemen – Martenson Report Ready
by Chris MartensonThere’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members. This week I spell out the five high level elements that I regularly track to guide my understanding of where we are and where we are headed.
A snippet:
Executive Summary:
- What can we expect next, and how will we recognize it?
- A series of sharp, interrupted shocks is more likely than a major sudden collapse.
- Five game-changing events, what I call The Five Horsemen, will indicate that the rules have changed and a new reality is about to take over:
- The First Horseman: New credit growth falls below interest payments
- The Second Horseman: The Fed monetizes debt
- The Third Horseman: Government spending exceeds 10% of GDP
- The Fourth Horseman: The dollar goes down, while interest rates go up
- The Fifth (and final) Horseman: US debt becomes denominated in foreign currencies
Severe structural damage has already been inflicted on our economy. As I wrote two weeks ago in It Has Hit the Fan:
If you have been waiting for further confirmation about the direction of the economy, or waiting for a sign that it’s now time to get serious about preparing for a future filled with less, this report is written for you.
You are living in the midst of the collapse of western economies, which are moving from a more complicated state to a less complicated one. This is it. Keep a journal, because it’s happening right now.
After the Great Depression, many people remarked that it was only obvious in retrospect. While it was unfolding, things steadily eroded. But 75% of the workforce remained employed, while hopeful signs of progress were constantly trotted out by various politicians, private economists, and official-sounding government agencies. It is often quite difficult to appreciate the true magnitude of sweeping change while it is occurring.
The most pressing question now is this: What can we expect next, and when?
In this report, I will give you the precise combination of macro-events that will cause me to issue an alert and kick my thinking and actions into new orbits.
Best,
Chris Martenson
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