page-loading-spinner
by Chris Martenson

It’s earning season again, and ‘investors’ are going to be fueled by reports of strong earnings and earnings growth in the banking industry, especially among the giants.

Some of these gains will be real, and some will be due to accounting gimmicks that are quite difficult to assess by any but fully-dedicated analysts.  For example, massive swings in provisions for loan losses are now a normal part of the bank-earnings management cycle, which makes accurate comparisons between periods quite difficult.

JPMorgan Profit Rises, Beating Estimates

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, said profit rose 76 percent, more than analysts estimated, as a reduction in provisions for soured mortgages and credit-card loans buoyed results.

Second-quarter net income climbed to $4.8 billion, or $1.09 a share, from $2.72 billion, or 28 cents, in the same period a year earlier and from $3.33 billion in the first quarter, the New York-based company said today in a statement.

Of course, left out of the first few paragraphs is the fact that JPM also reduced their provisions for future losses in their retail division by more than $2 billion.

About those bank profits…
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

It’s earning season again, and ‘investors’ are going to be fueled by reports of strong earnings and earnings growth in the banking industry, especially among the giants.

Some of these gains will be real, and some will be due to accounting gimmicks that are quite difficult to assess by any but fully-dedicated analysts.  For example, massive swings in provisions for loan losses are now a normal part of the bank-earnings management cycle, which makes accurate comparisons between periods quite difficult.

JPMorgan Profit Rises, Beating Estimates

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, said profit rose 76 percent, more than analysts estimated, as a reduction in provisions for soured mortgages and credit-card loans buoyed results.

Second-quarter net income climbed to $4.8 billion, or $1.09 a share, from $2.72 billion, or 28 cents, in the same period a year earlier and from $3.33 billion in the first quarter, the New York-based company said today in a statement.

Of course, left out of the first few paragraphs is the fact that JPM also reduced their provisions for future losses in their retail division by more than $2 billion.

by Chris Martenson

Growth and the Upcoming Iranian War


Monday, July 12, 2010

Executive Summary



  • A war with Iran seems likely before the US elections in November.

  • The US has committed an act of war in deciding to embargo Iranian fuel shipments and international financial activities.

  • The “urgency for dealing with Iran” is driven more by oil competition than military crisis.

  • The US militarily occupies or diplomatically controls every strategically-located oil producer in the Middle East except for Iran.

  • The most probable explanation for the sudden concern about Iran is likely centered over energy and the ‘requirement’ of growth that our economic and financial systems demand.

  • Seeking militarily-secured access to oil halfway around the world is a weak strategy.

  • An Iranian war has the potential to severely disrupt developed economies due to another wild oil-price spike.

I am troubled by the renewed beating of the Iranian war drums by the West and Israel.  Troubled, in part, because the world economy needs a war with Iran right now like it needs a hole in the head.  Or perhaps I should say a hole in the barrel, because the most likely immediate outcome of an Iranian war would be a diminution of oil traversing out of the Persian Gulf and a gigantic leap in the price of oil.


Both would add terrible stresses to the global financial system at this particular moment.


The last time I wrote about the urgent beating of the Iranian war drums was in December of 2009.  Then, too, we saw a near-perfect coordination of the media in breathlessly “reporting” whatever the US and Israeli military elements wanted communicated.  Basically it boiled down to something like this:  “THE US MUST IMMEDIATELY DEAL WITH THIS URGENT THREAT RIGHT NOW – NO WAITING – IT IS THAT SERIOUS!!!”  Sorry for shouting there, but that’s how it came across to me before it all, oddly and quietly, slipped off of the headlines and out of our collective consciousness, until just recently.

Growth and the Upcoming Iranian War
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Growth and the Upcoming Iranian War


Monday, July 12, 2010

Executive Summary



  • A war with Iran seems likely before the US elections in November.

  • The US has committed an act of war in deciding to embargo Iranian fuel shipments and international financial activities.

  • The “urgency for dealing with Iran” is driven more by oil competition than military crisis.

  • The US militarily occupies or diplomatically controls every strategically-located oil producer in the Middle East except for Iran.

  • The most probable explanation for the sudden concern about Iran is likely centered over energy and the ‘requirement’ of growth that our economic and financial systems demand.

  • Seeking militarily-secured access to oil halfway around the world is a weak strategy.

  • An Iranian war has the potential to severely disrupt developed economies due to another wild oil-price spike.

I am troubled by the renewed beating of the Iranian war drums by the West and Israel.  Troubled, in part, because the world economy needs a war with Iran right now like it needs a hole in the head.  Or perhaps I should say a hole in the barrel, because the most likely immediate outcome of an Iranian war would be a diminution of oil traversing out of the Persian Gulf and a gigantic leap in the price of oil.


Both would add terrible stresses to the global financial system at this particular moment.


The last time I wrote about the urgent beating of the Iranian war drums was in December of 2009.  Then, too, we saw a near-perfect coordination of the media in breathlessly “reporting” whatever the US and Israeli military elements wanted communicated.  Basically it boiled down to something like this:  “THE US MUST IMMEDIATELY DEAL WITH THIS URGENT THREAT RIGHT NOW – NO WAITING – IT IS THAT SERIOUS!!!”  Sorry for shouting there, but that’s how it came across to me before it all, oddly and quietly, slipped off of the headlines and out of our collective consciousness, until just recently.

by Chris Martenson

Note:  I am thinking this may be a good post for the front of the site, but am looking for your feedback here in the enrolled area before ‘going live’ with it.  Can you spot any weaknesses in it?  Have I made my case?  Is anything unclear? 


 

Recently there has been a very engaging discussion going on over in the forums [LINK] that puts forth the argument that there is no logical reason why a system founded on debt-based money must grow exponentially.

Clearly such a claim cuts right to the very heart of the Crash Course and all of its implications, so I decided to, once again, wade into these messy waters before too much more confusion is sown.

Poster Darbikrash said, “the material and thesis proposed by poster “diarmidiw” clearly show major holes in the debt based currency construct as outlined in the Crash Course,” while member Farmer Brown said in response, “It is a logical and mathematical fact that money/debt growth is NOT required for debt-based money to work.

So I need to address this before it goes much further.

Debt-Based Money Is The Problem
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Note:  I am thinking this may be a good post for the front of the site, but am looking for your feedback here in the enrolled area before ‘going live’ with it.  Can you spot any weaknesses in it?  Have I made my case?  Is anything unclear? 


 

Recently there has been a very engaging discussion going on over in the forums [LINK] that puts forth the argument that there is no logical reason why a system founded on debt-based money must grow exponentially.

Clearly such a claim cuts right to the very heart of the Crash Course and all of its implications, so I decided to, once again, wade into these messy waters before too much more confusion is sown.

Poster Darbikrash said, “the material and thesis proposed by poster “diarmidiw” clearly show major holes in the debt based currency construct as outlined in the Crash Course,” while member Farmer Brown said in response, “It is a logical and mathematical fact that money/debt growth is NOT required for debt-based money to work.

So I need to address this before it goes much further.

by Chris Martenson

The End is Near, Inc.

This is the title of the recent full-spread article in Boston Magazine about me, my work, and our community. It’s due out in hard print on Sunday with the Boston Globe. It is already available online here.

Unfortunately, the article relies too much on sensationalistic stereotypes and includes some troubling distortions.  My chief concern is that the story, told through a very few limited, out-of-context, and edited quotes, paints a picture of Becca and me as doomsayers with a bunker mentality.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

We somewhat reluctantly agreed to have our whole family included in this very public article, opened our home for several days for the effort, and are now wrestling with the impacts that will stem from the fact that our best efforts have now been tagged as “The End is Near, Inc.” – an unfortunate mischaracterization that completely misses what we are really about while implying that we do this for the money. 

Bunkers ‘R’ Not Us: Correcting Boston Magazine’s Take on This Movement
by Chris Martenson

The End is Near, Inc.

This is the title of the recent full-spread article in Boston Magazine about me, my work, and our community. It’s due out in hard print on Sunday with the Boston Globe. It is already available online here.

Unfortunately, the article relies too much on sensationalistic stereotypes and includes some troubling distortions.  My chief concern is that the story, told through a very few limited, out-of-context, and edited quotes, paints a picture of Becca and me as doomsayers with a bunker mentality.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

We somewhat reluctantly agreed to have our whole family included in this very public article, opened our home for several days for the effort, and are now wrestling with the impacts that will stem from the fact that our best efforts have now been tagged as “The End is Near, Inc.” – an unfortunate mischaracterization that completely misses what we are really about while implying that we do this for the money. 

Total 4948 items