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United Kingdom

by Alasdair Macleod

Executive Summary

  • France:  Bet on a bankruptcy of the French government
  • Italy:  Will not be able to fund its debt obligations without external help
  • Spain:  The best outcome at this point is years of grinding financial repression
  • UK:  At growing risk of a big upward spike in price inflation, leading to a currency crisis

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Individual States

France

Perhaps the cameo event that best describes French attitudes was the recent correspondence between Maurice Taylor Jnr, head of Titan International, the tire manufacturer, and Arnaud Montebourg, France’s Minister for Industrial Renewal. While it was good theatre, the serious points were that on average a French worker at an industrial plant works for three hours a day, and that the Minister resorted to threats that any Titan products imported into France would be “inspected by the relevant authorities with extra zeal.” That is the way things are done in France: Upset the Minister or a government functionary and none of your product gets to market, as Mr Taylor will shortly find out.

France has an official unemployment rate of about 10.5%, which would be somewhat higher if it were not for three-hour days in many of the factories. Taxes on employers are among the highest in Europe, and employment legislation is so onerous that employing an extra hand is the last option for all private sector employers.

Large companies, such as Peugeot-Citroen, generally tolerate poor labour productivity and sub-standard quality products partly because the unions are strong, and partly because senior managers look to government to “help” by providing subsidies and by other means. Consequently, private-sector manufacturing is not competitive, and sales in the troubled Eurozone are collapsing. Peugeot’s share price says it all.

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Decades of government protection have left France’s industrial sector in the weakest position of the larger Eurozone economies. Smaller businesses, outside the major cities, are heavily reliant on agricultural produce and hospitality, much of which is undeclared, untaxed, and untaxable. Furthermore, France’s farmers have long been beneficiaries of the EU’s agricultural subsidies, and have never had to be efficient.

Europe: Welcome to the Domino Effect
PREVIEW by Alasdair Macleod

Executive Summary

  • France:  Bet on a bankruptcy of the French government
  • Italy:  Will not be able to fund its debt obligations without external help
  • Spain:  The best outcome at this point is years of grinding financial repression
  • UK:  At growing risk of a big upward spike in price inflation, leading to a currency crisis

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Individual States

France

Perhaps the cameo event that best describes French attitudes was the recent correspondence between Maurice Taylor Jnr, head of Titan International, the tire manufacturer, and Arnaud Montebourg, France’s Minister for Industrial Renewal. While it was good theatre, the serious points were that on average a French worker at an industrial plant works for three hours a day, and that the Minister resorted to threats that any Titan products imported into France would be “inspected by the relevant authorities with extra zeal.” That is the way things are done in France: Upset the Minister or a government functionary and none of your product gets to market, as Mr Taylor will shortly find out.

France has an official unemployment rate of about 10.5%, which would be somewhat higher if it were not for three-hour days in many of the factories. Taxes on employers are among the highest in Europe, and employment legislation is so onerous that employing an extra hand is the last option for all private sector employers.

Large companies, such as Peugeot-Citroen, generally tolerate poor labour productivity and sub-standard quality products partly because the unions are strong, and partly because senior managers look to government to “help” by providing subsidies and by other means. Consequently, private-sector manufacturing is not competitive, and sales in the troubled Eurozone are collapsing. Peugeot’s share price says it all.

 align=

Decades of government protection have left France’s industrial sector in the weakest position of the larger Eurozone economies. Smaller businesses, outside the major cities, are heavily reliant on agricultural produce and hospitality, much of which is undeclared, untaxed, and untaxable. Furthermore, France’s farmers have long been beneficiaries of the EU’s agricultural subsidies, and have never had to be efficient.

by Alasdair Macleod

Executive Summary

  • Germany is unlikely to break solidarity with the rest of the Eurozone while Merkel remains in charge. But she may not last as long as she'd like.
  • France's economy is deteriorating at an alarming rate.
  • Most of France's "stability" to date is due to inflows of money fleeing Spain and Italy. That will stop soon – and then what?
  • The UK is suffering from many of the same ills as the U.S. However, its banks are too dependent on Eurozone debt for it to take drastic counter-measures, and so it is handcuffed to the future of the Continent.
  • All is well as long as no one defaults or no one leaves the Eurozone. With each player's position deteriorating, how long can the status quo last?

If you have not yet read Europe Is Now Sinking Fast, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In previous articles, I have given Peak Prosperity's enrolled members the lowdown on the weak Eurozone governments and looked at the crisis from Germany’s point of view. With respect to Germany, all that can be added is that her political elite is still frozen in inaction and show no signs of snapping out of it. Mrs Merkel, particularly, is still pursuing the out-of-date Euroland ideal. It is as if she has decided that she has no alternative. Come what may, it will have to succeed in the end, and she is not going to be the one who calls “uncle.”

I don’t know how these things work in Germany, but in the UK there comes a point where “the men in grey suits” metaphorically tap the leader on the shoulder and politely instruct him or her to resign. It happened to Mrs Thatcher, and unless she has a change of heart, it could happen to Mrs Merkel before next November’s German elections. And when that happens, the withdrawal of Germany from the euro can be expected to begin.

In this article we will update the deteriorating situation in two other key players on Europe's chessboard: France and the United Kingdom. And we'll reveal why the current system is like a Mexican standoff: Everything is stable until someone makes a move. Then all hell breaks loose…

Europe’s Mexican Standoff
PREVIEW by Alasdair Macleod

Executive Summary

  • Germany is unlikely to break solidarity with the rest of the Eurozone while Merkel remains in charge. But she may not last as long as she'd like.
  • France's economy is deteriorating at an alarming rate.
  • Most of France's "stability" to date is due to inflows of money fleeing Spain and Italy. That will stop soon – and then what?
  • The UK is suffering from many of the same ills as the U.S. However, its banks are too dependent on Eurozone debt for it to take drastic counter-measures, and so it is handcuffed to the future of the Continent.
  • All is well as long as no one defaults or no one leaves the Eurozone. With each player's position deteriorating, how long can the status quo last?

If you have not yet read Europe Is Now Sinking Fast, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In previous articles, I have given Peak Prosperity's enrolled members the lowdown on the weak Eurozone governments and looked at the crisis from Germany’s point of view. With respect to Germany, all that can be added is that her political elite is still frozen in inaction and show no signs of snapping out of it. Mrs Merkel, particularly, is still pursuing the out-of-date Euroland ideal. It is as if she has decided that she has no alternative. Come what may, it will have to succeed in the end, and she is not going to be the one who calls “uncle.”

I don’t know how these things work in Germany, but in the UK there comes a point where “the men in grey suits” metaphorically tap the leader on the shoulder and politely instruct him or her to resign. It happened to Mrs Thatcher, and unless she has a change of heart, it could happen to Mrs Merkel before next November’s German elections. And when that happens, the withdrawal of Germany from the euro can be expected to begin.

In this article we will update the deteriorating situation in two other key players on Europe's chessboard: France and the United Kingdom. And we'll reveal why the current system is like a Mexican standoff: Everything is stable until someone makes a move. Then all hell breaks loose…

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