taxes
Executive Summary
- The 3 reasons why deflation will continue to haunt the global economy
- The importance of cash flows in a deflationary environment
- Understanding the deflationary reasons behind the recent drop in oil prices and the material implications this will have going forward
If you have not yet read Part 1: Deflation Is Winning available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
So an very important question remains despite the trillions in new currency printed around the world in the past few years: Why are deflationary pressures still present?
- The debt overhang from the prior cycle has not vanished by a long shot. In fact today there is significantly more debt outstanding globally than was the case at the highs of 2007, primarily driven by global government borrowings. The following chart is total US credit market debt relative to GDP. You can see that very little has been reconciled since the peak. By the way,
Data Source: US Federal Reserve
Additional global debt assumption means additional interest cost burdens, even under an environment of interest rate suppression. And that means…
What Deflation Means For Investors
PREVIEW by Brian PrettiExecutive Summary
- The 3 reasons why deflation will continue to haunt the global economy
- The importance of cash flows in a deflationary environment
- Understanding the deflationary reasons behind the recent drop in oil prices and the material implications this will have going forward
If you have not yet read Part 1: Deflation Is Winning available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
So an very important question remains despite the trillions in new currency printed around the world in the past few years: Why are deflationary pressures still present?
- The debt overhang from the prior cycle has not vanished by a long shot. In fact today there is significantly more debt outstanding globally than was the case at the highs of 2007, primarily driven by global government borrowings. The following chart is total US credit market debt relative to GDP. You can see that very little has been reconciled since the peak. By the way,
Data Source: US Federal Reserve
Additional global debt assumption means additional interest cost burdens, even under an environment of interest rate suppression. And that means…
Executive Summary
- Understanding the Fed's ability to impact (or not) health & education, pensions, and inflation
- What you can do to insulate yourself from the impacts of the Fed's financial interference
- Mindset
- Major expenses
- Debt
- Resilience
- Income
If you have not yet read Part I: The Fed Matters Much Less Than You Think, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we found that the supposedly omniscient Federal Reserve is irrelevant to the engine of real wealth creation (innovation) and actively inhibits the allocation of capital and labor to innovation by incentivizing speculation and malinvestment.
In Part II, we’ll look at what else matters that the Fed either negatively influences or does not control, as well as specific actions we can take as individuals to insulate ourselves from the collateral damage caused by misguided central bank policies.
Health and Education
We all know health and education are vital to individuals and the economy, and like everything else that matters, the Fed’s influence is limited to financial repression of interest rates that enables the Federal government to avoid the sort of healthy fiscal discipline that higher rates would demand. In other words, the Fed has widened the moat around government spending, protecting it from the hard choices that would accompany massive deficits and bond issuance in a free-market economy.
Public and Private Pensions
By at least one measure, the Fed’s repression of interest rates (designed to recapitalize the banks at no direct cost to the Fed or government) has cost savers $10.8 trillion in lost income. Since the majority of savings in the U.S. are in public and private pension plans, 401Ks, and IRAs (individual retirement accounts), the Fed’s repression of interest rates has pushed these income-security savings into risky speculative asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate, and critically undermined the financial health of pensions by radically reducing their low-risk, safe returns.
How You Can Limit Your Exposure to the Fed’s Financial Interference
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- Understanding the Fed's ability to impact (or not) health & education, pensions, and inflation
- What you can do to insulate yourself from the impacts of the Fed's financial interference
- Mindset
- Major expenses
- Debt
- Resilience
- Income
If you have not yet read Part I: The Fed Matters Much Less Than You Think, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we found that the supposedly omniscient Federal Reserve is irrelevant to the engine of real wealth creation (innovation) and actively inhibits the allocation of capital and labor to innovation by incentivizing speculation and malinvestment.
In Part II, we’ll look at what else matters that the Fed either negatively influences or does not control, as well as specific actions we can take as individuals to insulate ourselves from the collateral damage caused by misguided central bank policies.
Health and Education
We all know health and education are vital to individuals and the economy, and like everything else that matters, the Fed’s influence is limited to financial repression of interest rates that enables the Federal government to avoid the sort of healthy fiscal discipline that higher rates would demand. In other words, the Fed has widened the moat around government spending, protecting it from the hard choices that would accompany massive deficits and bond issuance in a free-market economy.
Public and Private Pensions
By at least one measure, the Fed’s repression of interest rates (designed to recapitalize the banks at no direct cost to the Fed or government) has cost savers $10.8 trillion in lost income. Since the majority of savings in the U.S. are in public and private pension plans, 401Ks, and IRAs (individual retirement accounts), the Fed’s repression of interest rates has pushed these income-security savings into risky speculative asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate, and critically undermined the financial health of pensions by radically reducing their low-risk, safe returns.
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