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Image | More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y.  Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y.  Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y.  Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months.  Check out…
More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y.  Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y.  Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y.  Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months.  Check out…
Image | 2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
by David Collum

Annually, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. He strikes again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way. As with past years, he selected Peak Prosperity as the site where it is published in full. It is longer than our usual posts, but…
2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
 by David Collum

Annually, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. He strikes again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way. As with past years, he selected Peak Prosperity as the site where it is published in full. It is longer than our usual posts, but…
Image | Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth
Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were a pair of economic reports this week: The Producer Price Index by Commodity (PPIACO): -0.72% month over month (m/m), +9.07% year over year (y/y). Producer price inflation is falling – it is less than half of what it was at the peak (23%) in October, 2021. Durable Goods: Orders +1.06% m/m, New Orders:…
Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were a pair of economic reports this week: The Producer Price Index by Commodity (PPIACO): -0.72% month over month (m/m), +9.07% year over year (y/y). Producer price inflation is falling – it is less than half of what it was at the peak (23%) in October, 2021. Durable Goods: Orders +1.06% m/m, New Orders:…
Image | Good News for Metals; A Mafia Operation
Good News for Metals; A Mafia Operation
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The buck fell 0.91 [-0.85%] to 105.92 on the week; most of the damage happened on Monday and Tuesday. While the buck remains (barely) above the 200 MA, this week marks a new 4-month closing low. Is the dollar rally over? I’ll show you a monthly of the buck this week – it might provide…
Good News for Metals; A Mafia Operation
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The buck fell 0.91 [-0.85%] to 105.92 on the week; most of the damage happened on Monday and Tuesday. While the buck remains (barely) above the 200 MA, this week marks a new 4-month closing low. Is the dollar rally over? I’ll show you a monthly of the buck this week – it might provide…
Image | Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives
Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models…
Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models…
Image | Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases.  Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change.  The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week,…
Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases.  Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change.  The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week,…
Image | Gold and Silver Guide 2022
Gold and Silver Guide 2022
by Chris Martenson

Buying precious metals is not as easy or intuitive as many people might think. I originally wrote this guide more than 10 years ago certain that before long the media and Wall Street would eventually do a much better job explaining precious metals and demystifying the purchase process to investors. But that hasn’t happened. So,…
Gold and Silver Guide 2022
 by Chris Martenson

Buying precious metals is not as easy or intuitive as many people might think. I originally wrote this guide more than 10 years ago certain that before long the media and Wall Street would eventually do a much better job explaining precious metals and demystifying the purchase process to investors. But that hasn’t happened. So,…
Image | Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA
Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Well, last week I said to watch prices. This week, we saw prices explode higher, in virtually all of the commodities I track: Gold: +84.30 [+4.27%] Silver: +1.57 [+6.06%] XAU: +12.11 [+7.81%] Palladium: +626.27 [+26.97%] Crude: +21.76 [+19.22%] Copper: +0.43 [+8.76%] Lumber: +100.84 [+7.76%] USD: +2.15% EUR: -2.99% 10-year; -27 bp [to 1.70%] Risk assets…
Weekly Market Update: Russia War Heats Up; America’s Doctor MIA
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Well, last week I said to watch prices. This week, we saw prices explode higher, in virtually all of the commodities I track: Gold: +84.30 [+4.27%] Silver: +1.57 [+6.06%] XAU: +12.11 [+7.81%] Palladium: +626.27 [+26.97%] Crude: +21.76 [+19.22%] Copper: +0.43 [+8.76%] Lumber: +100.84 [+7.76%] USD: +2.15% EUR: -2.99% 10-year; -27 bp [to 1.70%] Risk assets…
Image | Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices
Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

So, the invasion I thought wouldn’t happen – happened last Thursday. The press, and the Biden-Handlers were simply overjoyed with this outcome. Out with COVID, In with Invasion! Yay distraction! The timing was impeccable. If the Biden-Handlers had planned the invasion themselves, I don’t think it could have possibly been better-timed. [Totally unrelated – I…
Invasion Thursday; Watch Prices
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

So, the invasion I thought wouldn’t happen – happened last Thursday. The press, and the Biden-Handlers were simply overjoyed with this outcome. Out with COVID, In with Invasion! Yay distraction! The timing was impeccable. If the Biden-Handlers had planned the invasion themselves, I don’t think it could have possibly been better-timed. [Totally unrelated – I…
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