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Image | Sickcare Payrolls Boom as Foreign-Born Workers Surge and Crude Backwardation Deepens
Sickcare Payrolls Boom as Foreign-Born Workers Surge and Crude Backwardation Deepens
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by davefairtex

Sickcare payrolls boomed in March, adding 43% of all new jobs, while foreign-born employment surged and crude oil futures plunged into record backwardation.
Sickcare Payrolls Boom as Foreign-Born Workers Surge and Crude Backwardation Deepens
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Sickcare payrolls boomed in March, adding 43% of all new jobs, while foreign-born employment surged and crude oil futures plunged into record backwardation.
Image | Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
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by davefairtex

Negative payrolls signal deepening recession fears, sparking risk-off selling in bonds and equities while the dollar surges on global capital flight.
Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Negative payrolls signal deepening recession fears, sparking risk-off selling in bonds and equities while the dollar surges on global capital flight.
Image | Gold Dip Devoured: COMEX’s Grip Slips in a “Failure to Control”?
Gold Dip Devoured: COMEX’s Grip Slips in a “Failure to Control”?
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by davefairtex

Gold plunged to $4,423 early in the week, then rallied hard on massive dip-buying, closing up nearly 5% at $4,980. Open interest crashed to a 7-year low — is COMEX losing control?
Gold Dip Devoured: COMEX’s Grip Slips in a “Failure to Control”?
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Gold plunged to $4,423 early in the week, then rallied hard on massive dip-buying, closing up nearly 5% at $4,980. Open interest crashed to a 7-year low — is COMEX losing control?
Image | Weak Payrolls, Dollar Rebound, and Metals Surge as EUR/JPY Slide Amid Geopolitical Jitters
Weak Payrolls, Dollar Rebound, and Metals Surge as EUR/JPY Slide Amid Geopolitical Jitters
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Weak December payrolls signal economic softness, yet the dollar rebounds while precious metals surge—gold up nearly 4%, silver explodes 11.7%—as EUR/JPY slides amid geopolitical tensions.
Weak Payrolls, Dollar Rebound, and Metals Surge as EUR/JPY Slide Amid Geopolitical Jitters
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Weak December payrolls signal economic softness, yet the dollar rebounds while precious metals surge—gold up nearly 4%, silver explodes 11.7%—as EUR/JPY slides amid geopolitical tensions.
Image | Part-Time Work Surges, Precious Metals Highs, and Key Ratios: Recession Signals Intensify
Part-Time Work Surges, Precious Metals Highs, and Key Ratios: Recession Signals Intensify
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by davefairtex

Silver screams to new highs as precious metals soar, but a shocking 50% surge in involuntary part-time work signals deepening recession amid weak sales and payrolls.
Part-Time Work Surges, Precious Metals Highs, and Key Ratios: Recession Signals Intensify
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Silver screams to new highs as precious metals soar, but a shocking 50% surge in involuntary part-time work signals deepening recession amid weak sales and payrolls.
Image | Risk Assets Crack Despite no Data Disaster – Did AI Pop it’s Own Bubble?
Risk Assets Crack Despite no Data Disaster – Did AI Pop it’s Own Bubble?
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by davefairtex

Risk assets cracked hard while macro data stayed clean, but did AI itself just expose and pop the NVIDIA bubble? The correction deepens.
Risk Assets Crack Despite no Data Disaster – Did AI Pop it’s Own Bubble?
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Risk assets cracked hard while macro data stayed clean, but did AI itself just expose and pop the NVIDIA bubble? The correction deepens.
Image | Deportations + Disability = Full-Time Jobs, No-Recession (Yet), and Makes SPX New Highs
Deportations + Disability = Full-Time Jobs, No-Recession (Yet), and Makes SPX New Highs
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by davefairtex

The pace of disclosures is picking up. What’s not on the card yet? I strongly suspect we have more Disclosure ahead. Meanwhile, the markets remain in risk-on mode but with very mixed signals beneath.
Deportations + Disability = Full-Time Jobs, No-Recession (Yet), and Makes SPX New Highs
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The pace of disclosures is picking up. What’s not on the card yet? I strongly suspect we have more Disclosure ahead. Meanwhile, the markets remain in risk-on mode but with very mixed signals beneath.
Image | More Of Everything: Recession Signals, European War Drumming, and Volatility
More Of Everything: Recession Signals, European War Drumming, and Volatility
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The US recession appears to be gathering steam – each week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW forecasting tool is looking more unhappy.  For sure, “they” want to focus on the upcoming Trump-cession – just yesterday, I saw the first Nudge Google article on point.  (…) The increasing likelihood of the US leaving NATO really is revolutionary. …
More Of Everything: Recession Signals, European War Drumming, and Volatility
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The US recession appears to be gathering steam – each week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW forecasting tool is looking more unhappy.  For sure, “they” want to focus on the upcoming Trump-cession – just yesterday, I saw the first Nudge Google article on point.  (…) The increasing likelihood of the US leaving NATO really is revolutionary. …
Image | Weak Payrolls, Long Rates Rise, New Gold High, and Hitler … Again!
Weak Payrolls, Long Rates Rise, New Gold High, and Hitler … Again!
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by davefairtex

I think we are probably in a recession right now. With long bonds selling off, leading to rising interest rates, things are getting very interesting in the markets.
Weak Payrolls, Long Rates Rise, New Gold High, and Hitler … Again!
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

I think we are probably in a recession right now. With long bonds selling off, leading to rising interest rates, things are getting very interesting in the markets.
Image | US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
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by davefairtex

I think this is just the start.  As moves get more extreme, they will eventually break any institution that is crazy enough to be leveraged-short-risk and/or you’ve loaned a ton of money on a New York commercial building which now has a 60% vacancy rate and whose value has dropped by 97%.  I predict that lots of institutions, used to trading in placid markets, will blow up during the upcoming period.
US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

I think this is just the start.  As moves get more extreme, they will eventually break any institution that is crazy enough to be leveraged-short-risk and/or you’ve loaned a ton of money on a New York commercial building which now has a 60% vacancy rate and whose value has dropped by 97%.  I predict that lots of institutions, used to trading in placid markets, will blow up during the upcoming period.
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 Prep Now for the Coming Winter Challenges
I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the needs and sustainability of our family. We have six young children, our oldest just turned 12 and our youngest just turned 3 months old. I love the considerations that the article had above and thought I would add a few things that I have considered for our situation. My...
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