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Image | Wealth transfers & gold hits new highs as the narrative breaks down
Wealth transfers & gold hits new highs as the narrative breaks down
 by davefairtex

Gold made or is near a new all time weekly closing high in multiple currencies. This is why I watch prices.  Information does leak out, regardless of all the manipulation and propaganda.  You just have to know what prices to watch. 

Wealth transfers & gold hits new highs as the narrative breaks down
 by davefairtex

Gold made or is near a new all time weekly closing high in multiple currencies. This is why I watch prices.  Information does leak out, regardless of all the manipulation and propaganda.  You just have to know what prices to watch. 

Image | More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
 by davefairtex

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y.  Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y.  Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y.  Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months.  Check out […]
More Hints of Economic Decline; June 1 Default Deadline Approaches
 by davefairtex

Two economic reports, and a Balance Sheet: Producer Price Index (PPIACO): +0.08% m/m, -3.08% y/y.  Deflationary. Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.37% m/m, +4.72% y/y.  Inflationary. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -0.01% w/w, -5.16% y/y.  Neutral. I believe that the drop in PPI y/y is explained by oil’s $45 plunge over the past 12 months.  Check out […]
Image | 2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
 by David Collum

Annually, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. He strikes again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way. As with past years, he selected Peak Prosperity as the site where it is published in full. It is longer than our usual posts, but […]
2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine
 by David Collum

Annually, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. He strikes again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way. As with past years, he selected Peak Prosperity as the site where it is published in full. It is longer than our usual posts, but […]
Image | Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth
Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth
 by davefairtex

There were a pair of economic reports this week: The Producer Price Index by Commodity (PPIACO): -0.72% month over month (m/m), +9.07% year over year (y/y). Producer price inflation is falling – it is less than half of what it was at the peak (23%) in October, 2021. Durable Goods: Orders +1.06% m/m, New Orders: […]
Oil Makes a 12-Month Low; Guidance from Col. Hackworth
 by davefairtex

There were a pair of economic reports this week: The Producer Price Index by Commodity (PPIACO): -0.72% month over month (m/m), +9.07% year over year (y/y). Producer price inflation is falling – it is less than half of what it was at the peak (23%) in October, 2021. Durable Goods: Orders +1.06% m/m, New Orders: […]
Image | Good News for Metals; A Mafia Operation
Good News for Metals; A Mafia Operation
 by davefairtex

The buck fell 0.91 [-0.85%] to 105.92 on the week; most of the damage happened on Monday and Tuesday. While the buck remains (barely) above the 200 MA, this week marks a new 4-month closing low. Is the dollar rally over? I’ll show you a monthly of the buck this week – it might provide […]
Good News for Metals; A Mafia Operation
 by davefairtex

The buck fell 0.91 [-0.85%] to 105.92 on the week; most of the damage happened on Monday and Tuesday. While the buck remains (barely) above the 200 MA, this week marks a new 4-month closing low. Is the dollar rally over? I’ll show you a monthly of the buck this week – it might provide […]
Image | Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives
Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives
 by davefairtex

There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models […]
Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives
 by davefairtex

There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models […]
Image | Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK
Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK
 by davefairtex

Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top […]
Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK
 by davefairtex

Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top […]
Image | ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble
ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble
 by davefairtex

The market-moving event this week: the European Central Bank decided to raise rates by 75 bp, so now deposits are yielding (are you ready?): a grand total of 0.75%.  Back up the truck! Note: the ECB previously had negative rates from 2016-2022. Wolf has the charts: ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation is Going […]
ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble
 by davefairtex

The market-moving event this week: the European Central Bank decided to raise rates by 75 bp, so now deposits are yielding (are you ready?): a grand total of 0.75%.  Back up the truck! Note: the ECB previously had negative rates from 2016-2022. Wolf has the charts: ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation is Going […]
Image | Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
 by davefairtex

I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases.  Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change.  The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week, […]
Rate Increase, Joe Popping Pills
 by davefairtex

I’ll lead again with my new focus: rate increases.  Where are we? Last week: July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase This week: July 27: 71%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% increase Nov 2: 44%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% increase Source Not much change.  The prospects for a rate increase are similar to last week, […]
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 MSR December 4th, 2023: Unsafe & Ineffective : The New Zealand Vaccine Data Dump
Audio for Unsafe & Ineffective The big news from last week on the Covid vaccine front was the (alleged) release of a dataset from New Zealand by a whistleblower. I stood back for a while because I needed to be sure that we weren’t being played and for some greater resolution to appear from the internet brain trust. I...
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