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Image | Sickcare Payrolls Boom as Foreign-Born Workers Surge and Crude Backwardation Deepens
Sickcare Payrolls Boom as Foreign-Born Workers Surge and Crude Backwardation Deepens
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by davefairtex

Sickcare payrolls boomed in March, adding 43% of all new jobs, while foreign-born employment surged and crude oil futures plunged into record backwardation.
Sickcare Payrolls Boom as Foreign-Born Workers Surge and Crude Backwardation Deepens
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Sickcare payrolls boomed in March, adding 43% of all new jobs, while foreign-born employment surged and crude oil futures plunged into record backwardation.
Image | Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
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by davefairtex

Negative payrolls signal deepening recession fears, sparking risk-off selling in bonds and equities while the dollar surges on global capital flight.
Negative Payrolls Fuel Recession Fears Amid Risk-Off Moves and Dollar Rally
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Negative payrolls signal deepening recession fears, sparking risk-off selling in bonds and equities while the dollar surges on global capital flight.
Image | Long Bonds Surge as Financials Crater: Recession Warning and/or AI Implosion Brewing?
Long Bonds Surge as Financials Crater: Recession Warning and/or AI Implosion Brewing?
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by davefairtex

Long bonds surged as financials cratered this week, with TLT up sharply amid risk-off flows. Is this a classic recession warning, an AI debt implosion brewing, or both?
Long Bonds Surge as Financials Crater: Recession Warning and/or AI Implosion Brewing?
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Long bonds surged as financials cratered this week, with TLT up sharply amid risk-off flows. Is this a classic recession warning, an AI debt implosion brewing, or both?
Image | Deportations + Disability = Full-Time Jobs, No-Recession (Yet), and Makes SPX New Highs
Deportations + Disability = Full-Time Jobs, No-Recession (Yet), and Makes SPX New Highs
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

The pace of disclosures is picking up. What’s not on the card yet? I strongly suspect we have more Disclosure ahead. Meanwhile, the markets remain in risk-on mode but with very mixed signals beneath.
Deportations + Disability = Full-Time Jobs, No-Recession (Yet), and Makes SPX New Highs
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The pace of disclosures is picking up. What’s not on the card yet? I strongly suspect we have more Disclosure ahead. Meanwhile, the markets remain in risk-on mode but with very mixed signals beneath.
Image | China’s Gold Rush: ETF Inflows and Tariff Tensions Drive Prices
China’s Gold Rush: ETF Inflows and Tariff Tensions Drive Prices
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

China’s gold ETF inflows surged, driven by tariff fears, but prices dipped as trade talks progressed. Will gold ease further if U.S.-China tensions cool?
China’s Gold Rush: ETF Inflows and Tariff Tensions Drive Prices
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

China’s gold ETF inflows surged, driven by tariff fears, but prices dipped as trade talks progressed. Will gold ease further if U.S.-China tensions cool?
Image | Gold in Euros at an All-Time High, It Was Payrolls Friday, and Here’s What’s Next
Gold in Euros at an All-Time High, It Was Payrolls Friday, and Here’s What’s Next
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by davefairtex

The new all-time high for gold in euros (and in many other currencies too), while silver lags badly, and the miners lag even more, suggests this isn’t about “inflation” (which of course still exists) – it is something else.  Gold and the buck rallying together is unusual – it feels like a flight to safety. …
Gold in Euros at an All-Time High, It Was Payrolls Friday, and Here’s What’s Next
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

The new all-time high for gold in euros (and in many other currencies too), while silver lags badly, and the miners lag even more, suggests this isn’t about “inflation” (which of course still exists) – it is something else.  Gold and the buck rallying together is unusual – it feels like a flight to safety. …
Image | Disability Breakout(!), Recession Indicators, and the 3-D’s: Disability, Death, Deportation
Disability Breakout(!), Recession Indicators, and the 3-D’s: Disability, Death, Deportation
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Seismic changes are happening in the labor force, with spiking disability telling a sickening tale. Couple that to the “Fruit Loops effect” where Americans are opting out of the poison-as-food model could lead to a huge decline in sickcare company profits.
Disability Breakout(!), Recession Indicators, and the 3-D’s: Disability, Death, Deportation
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Seismic changes are happening in the labor force, with spiking disability telling a sickening tale. Couple that to the “Fruit Loops effect” where Americans are opting out of the poison-as-food model could lead to a huge decline in sickcare company profits.
Image | It’s Disability Friday And The Correction Has Begun
It’s Disability Friday And The Correction Has Begun
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by davefairtex

September is here, and I suspect the (long-awaited) correction is now underway. While disability in the workforce is falling, disability in the overall population is continuing to rise and it looks like the Great Replacement Conspiracy Theory is now Conspiracy Fact.
It’s Disability Friday And The Correction Has Begun
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

September is here, and I suspect the (long-awaited) correction is now underway. While disability in the workforce is falling, disability in the overall population is continuing to rise and it looks like the Great Replacement Conspiracy Theory is now Conspiracy Fact.
Image | US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

I think this is just the start.  As moves get more extreme, they will eventually break any institution that is crazy enough to be leveraged-short-risk and/or you’ve loaned a ton of money on a New York commercial building which now has a 60% vacancy rate and whose value has dropped by 97%.  I predict that lots of institutions, used to trading in placid markets, will blow up during the upcoming period.
US Treasury Rates Plunge, Good News in Disability, and They Need War
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

I think this is just the start.  As moves get more extreme, they will eventually break any institution that is crazy enough to be leveraged-short-risk and/or you’ve loaned a ton of money on a New York commercial building which now has a 60% vacancy rate and whose value has dropped by 97%.  I predict that lots of institutions, used to trading in placid markets, will blow up during the upcoming period.
Image | It’s Disability Friday, Next Up Is Victory Disease, and It’s Just Time
It’s Disability Friday, Next Up Is Victory Disease, and It’s Just Time
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Why did they go so crazy?   They have won too often, for way too long. Now they have Victory Disease. Meanwhile, their entire narrative is falling apart. Perhaps the “markets” will follow…
It’s Disability Friday, Next Up Is Victory Disease, and It’s Just Time
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Why did they go so crazy?   They have won too often, for way too long. Now they have Victory Disease. Meanwhile, their entire narrative is falling apart. Perhaps the “markets” will follow…
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I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the needs and sustainability of our family. We have six young children, our oldest just turned 12 and our youngest just turned 3 months old. I love the considerations that the article had above and thought I would add a few things that I have considered for our situation. My...
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