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by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Energy plays a key role in sovereign economic (un)sustainability
  • The export boom is imploding
  • The neofeudal model is collapsing as 'serf' nations enter default
  • Take preparation now, while it still matters

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the core dynamics that expanded Greek debt to its current unmanageable size—currency/trade deficits and bailouts—and the enormous transfer of private bank debt to the public ledger via the Troika bailouts, only 10% of which trickled down to the Greek people.

There are two other dynamics beneath the surface theater, dynamics which are not unique to Greece but are characteristic of the most heavily indebted nations.

Food and Fuel Imports Drive Structural Imbalances and Debt/Currency Crises

In our recent podcast, Chris mentioned this chart of imported energy by nation. Note that the nations with crushing structural debt loads (the so-called PIIGS—Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) also happen to be major importers of energy.

 

What does this have to do with Greece’s debt crisis? Let’s go back to the key driver of Greek debt—imports that far exceeded exports, not occasionally but structurally, year in and year out.  Money was borrowed to pay for those imports, interest accrued on the loans and then austerity was pressed on the debtor nations by the lenders as a means of extracting interest on the rising debts.

If a nation does not generate a significant percentage of its own energy and food needs, or export enough goods and services to offset its imports of energy and food…

More Sovereign Defaults Are Coming
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Energy plays a key role in sovereign economic (un)sustainability
  • The export boom is imploding
  • The neofeudal model is collapsing as 'serf' nations enter default
  • Take preparation now, while it still matters

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the core dynamics that expanded Greek debt to its current unmanageable size—currency/trade deficits and bailouts—and the enormous transfer of private bank debt to the public ledger via the Troika bailouts, only 10% of which trickled down to the Greek people.

There are two other dynamics beneath the surface theater, dynamics which are not unique to Greece but are characteristic of the most heavily indebted nations.

Food and Fuel Imports Drive Structural Imbalances and Debt/Currency Crises

In our recent podcast, Chris mentioned this chart of imported energy by nation. Note that the nations with crushing structural debt loads (the so-called PIIGS—Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) also happen to be major importers of energy.

 

What does this have to do with Greece’s debt crisis? Let’s go back to the key driver of Greek debt—imports that far exceeded exports, not occasionally but structurally, year in and year out.  Money was borrowed to pay for those imports, interest accrued on the loans and then austerity was pressed on the debtor nations by the lenders as a means of extracting interest on the rising debts.

If a nation does not generate a significant percentage of its own energy and food needs, or export enough goods and services to offset its imports of energy and food…

by Alasdair Macleod

Executive Summary

  • Germany is unlikely to break solidarity with the rest of the Eurozone while Merkel remains in charge. But she may not last as long as she'd like.
  • France's economy is deteriorating at an alarming rate.
  • Most of France's "stability" to date is due to inflows of money fleeing Spain and Italy. That will stop soon – and then what?
  • The UK is suffering from many of the same ills as the U.S. However, its banks are too dependent on Eurozone debt for it to take drastic counter-measures, and so it is handcuffed to the future of the Continent.
  • All is well as long as no one defaults or no one leaves the Eurozone. With each player's position deteriorating, how long can the status quo last?

If you have not yet read Europe Is Now Sinking Fast, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In previous articles, I have given Peak Prosperity's enrolled members the lowdown on the weak Eurozone governments and looked at the crisis from Germany’s point of view. With respect to Germany, all that can be added is that her political elite is still frozen in inaction and show no signs of snapping out of it. Mrs Merkel, particularly, is still pursuing the out-of-date Euroland ideal. It is as if she has decided that she has no alternative. Come what may, it will have to succeed in the end, and she is not going to be the one who calls “uncle.”

I don’t know how these things work in Germany, but in the UK there comes a point where “the men in grey suits” metaphorically tap the leader on the shoulder and politely instruct him or her to resign. It happened to Mrs Thatcher, and unless she has a change of heart, it could happen to Mrs Merkel before next November’s German elections. And when that happens, the withdrawal of Germany from the euro can be expected to begin.

In this article we will update the deteriorating situation in two other key players on Europe's chessboard: France and the United Kingdom. And we'll reveal why the current system is like a Mexican standoff: Everything is stable until someone makes a move. Then all hell breaks loose…

Europe’s Mexican Standoff
PREVIEW by Alasdair Macleod

Executive Summary

  • Germany is unlikely to break solidarity with the rest of the Eurozone while Merkel remains in charge. But she may not last as long as she'd like.
  • France's economy is deteriorating at an alarming rate.
  • Most of France's "stability" to date is due to inflows of money fleeing Spain and Italy. That will stop soon – and then what?
  • The UK is suffering from many of the same ills as the U.S. However, its banks are too dependent on Eurozone debt for it to take drastic counter-measures, and so it is handcuffed to the future of the Continent.
  • All is well as long as no one defaults or no one leaves the Eurozone. With each player's position deteriorating, how long can the status quo last?

If you have not yet read Europe Is Now Sinking Fast, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In previous articles, I have given Peak Prosperity's enrolled members the lowdown on the weak Eurozone governments and looked at the crisis from Germany’s point of view. With respect to Germany, all that can be added is that her political elite is still frozen in inaction and show no signs of snapping out of it. Mrs Merkel, particularly, is still pursuing the out-of-date Euroland ideal. It is as if she has decided that she has no alternative. Come what may, it will have to succeed in the end, and she is not going to be the one who calls “uncle.”

I don’t know how these things work in Germany, but in the UK there comes a point where “the men in grey suits” metaphorically tap the leader on the shoulder and politely instruct him or her to resign. It happened to Mrs Thatcher, and unless she has a change of heart, it could happen to Mrs Merkel before next November’s German elections. And when that happens, the withdrawal of Germany from the euro can be expected to begin.

In this article we will update the deteriorating situation in two other key players on Europe's chessboard: France and the United Kingdom. And we'll reveal why the current system is like a Mexican standoff: Everything is stable until someone makes a move. Then all hell breaks loose…

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