Crisis
Executive Summary
- The systemic markers that precede collapse
- The approaching end of our current 'unlimited growth' paradigm
- Is a collapse inevitable? Or can we evolve gracefully to a new model?
- The opportunity within the coming change
If you have not yet read Part 1: What Triggers Collapse? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
What Triggers Collapse?
Many authors (Jared Diamond, Joseph Tainter, Thomas Homer-Dixon, David Hackett Fischer, Michael Grant and Peter Turchin, to name a few) have delved into the question of why civilizations decay and fail. The question of how nations/empires endure gets considerably less attention, but economic/social adaptability, the resilience of shared purpose/social cohesion, social mobility, the ability to generate reliable surpluses, secure trade routes, a professional army and navy to defend borders and trade routes, a merit-based a professional bureaucracy to collect taxes and oversee commerce, a stable form of money and competent leadership all play critical roles.
But history is replete with examples of nation-states and empires that possess all these positive attributes that still decay and collapse once critical supplies of energy and food fail, or invaders conquer essential territories or trade routes.
Can we generalize the dynamics that weaken a nation/empire to the point where collapse cannot be staved off?
The authors listed above have highlighted the following systemic dynamics…
Opportunity In Crisis
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- The systemic markers that precede collapse
- The approaching end of our current 'unlimited growth' paradigm
- Is a collapse inevitable? Or can we evolve gracefully to a new model?
- The opportunity within the coming change
If you have not yet read Part 1: What Triggers Collapse? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
What Triggers Collapse?
Many authors (Jared Diamond, Joseph Tainter, Thomas Homer-Dixon, David Hackett Fischer, Michael Grant and Peter Turchin, to name a few) have delved into the question of why civilizations decay and fail. The question of how nations/empires endure gets considerably less attention, but economic/social adaptability, the resilience of shared purpose/social cohesion, social mobility, the ability to generate reliable surpluses, secure trade routes, a professional army and navy to defend borders and trade routes, a merit-based a professional bureaucracy to collect taxes and oversee commerce, a stable form of money and competent leadership all play critical roles.
But history is replete with examples of nation-states and empires that possess all these positive attributes that still decay and collapse once critical supplies of energy and food fail, or invaders conquer essential territories or trade routes.
Can we generalize the dynamics that weaken a nation/empire to the point where collapse cannot be staved off?
The authors listed above have highlighted the following systemic dynamics…
As we write about the risks of our over-indebted economy, of our unsustainable fossil fuel-dependent energy policies, and our accelerating depletion of key resources, it's not a far leap to start worrying about the potential for a coming degradation of our modern lifestyle — or even the possibility of full-blown societal collapse.
Sadly, collapse is not just a theoretical worry for a growing number of people around the world. They're living within it right now.
This week, we catch up with Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre, who began blogging during the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina’s economy in 2001 and has since dedicated his professional career to educating the public about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. Given his first-hand experience with living through, and eventually escaping, economic collapse in South America, we asked him to offer his insider's perspective on the current crisis in Venezuela, as well as the devolving situation in Brazil.
FerFAL: Understanding Societal Collapse
by Adam TaggartAs we write about the risks of our over-indebted economy, of our unsustainable fossil fuel-dependent energy policies, and our accelerating depletion of key resources, it's not a far leap to start worrying about the potential for a coming degradation of our modern lifestyle — or even the possibility of full-blown societal collapse.
Sadly, collapse is not just a theoretical worry for a growing number of people around the world. They're living within it right now.
This week, we catch up with Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre, who began blogging during the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina’s economy in 2001 and has since dedicated his professional career to educating the public about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. Given his first-hand experience with living through, and eventually escaping, economic collapse in South America, we asked him to offer his insider's perspective on the current crisis in Venezuela, as well as the devolving situation in Brazil.
In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:
"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship."
(Source)
In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey.
The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme
by charleshughsmithIn the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:
"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship."
(Source)
In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey.
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