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by JHK

Executive Summary

  • Ready or not, the forces underlying the Long Emergency will force a return to the 'real' (vs the virtual)
  • What regions and town/city models will fare best in this future?
  • The age of the car is over: how will we transport goods and ourselves?
  • Which skills will be in greatest demand?
  • How to prepare ourselves emotionally for becoming less techno-dependent

If you have not yet read Part I: Returning to the 'Real'  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

A Return To the 'Real'

John Maynard Keynes famously remarked, “In the long run we are all dead.” Which leaves the short to intermediate run, which is a lot. Start with the proposition that we’ll be compelled to reconnect our lives to biophysical reality, that is, nature. The techno-industrial adventure was about the exhilaration of overcoming natural limits — and the grandiosity in thinking that we could de-link permanently and put something synthetic and supposedly just-as-good in nature’s place. In the process, we de-natured ourselves and unplugged from the satisfactions found in being part of something wondrous and whole and larger than ourselves. We don’t have to reinvent the sacred. It has been there all along. We just ignored and disregarded it for about a century, and now we have to rebuild the social and logistical infrastructure for it.  That job will be easier than keeping the interstate highway system in repair.

Expect to be living a far less mediated existence, being more directly in touch with the patterns afforded by nature, the sun and moon, the seasons, the temperature, the sensations, the tastes and textures, the pains and pleasures. For the generation used to sensing absolutely everything through the tiny portal of a five-inch smart phone screen, this may come as a startling psychological shock, greater than the psychedelic drugs of the hippie days were to the Boomers. By the way, nobody should expect that the national electric grid will survive indefinitely, or that every locality will be able to generate its own electricity without the long commercial chains of mining, advanced metallurgy, and the manufacture of modular machinery.

Where to Live?

One of the first questions for people to answer for themselves, especially in a period of demographic turmoil, is what place do I feel okay about being in and how do I set my roots in it?

The Future of Living
PREVIEW by JHK

Executive Summary

  • Ready or not, the forces underlying the Long Emergency will force a return to the 'real' (vs the virtual)
  • What regions and town/city models will fare best in this future?
  • The age of the car is over: how will we transport goods and ourselves?
  • Which skills will be in greatest demand?
  • How to prepare ourselves emotionally for becoming less techno-dependent

If you have not yet read Part I: Returning to the 'Real'  available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

A Return To the 'Real'

John Maynard Keynes famously remarked, “In the long run we are all dead.” Which leaves the short to intermediate run, which is a lot. Start with the proposition that we’ll be compelled to reconnect our lives to biophysical reality, that is, nature. The techno-industrial adventure was about the exhilaration of overcoming natural limits — and the grandiosity in thinking that we could de-link permanently and put something synthetic and supposedly just-as-good in nature’s place. In the process, we de-natured ourselves and unplugged from the satisfactions found in being part of something wondrous and whole and larger than ourselves. We don’t have to reinvent the sacred. It has been there all along. We just ignored and disregarded it for about a century, and now we have to rebuild the social and logistical infrastructure for it.  That job will be easier than keeping the interstate highway system in repair.

Expect to be living a far less mediated existence, being more directly in touch with the patterns afforded by nature, the sun and moon, the seasons, the temperature, the sensations, the tastes and textures, the pains and pleasures. For the generation used to sensing absolutely everything through the tiny portal of a five-inch smart phone screen, this may come as a startling psychological shock, greater than the psychedelic drugs of the hippie days were to the Boomers. By the way, nobody should expect that the national electric grid will survive indefinitely, or that every locality will be able to generate its own electricity without the long commercial chains of mining, advanced metallurgy, and the manufacture of modular machinery.

Where to Live?

One of the first questions for people to answer for themselves, especially in a period of demographic turmoil, is what place do I feel okay about being in and how do I set my roots in it?

by Mat Stein

[NOTE: This article is adapted from When Disaster Strikes: A Comprehensive Guide for Emergency Planning and Crisis Survival]

What should you do if you are stuck in your car during a killer snowstorm?

In mid-December of 1992, unusually dry conditions had people cancelling their reservations for Christmas in Tahoe, but then the weather changed. A couple days before Christmas, it started snowing, and for the next three months it seemed to barely ever stop! The week between Christmas and New Year's, we averaged two feet of snow each day at our home in Truckee, and at nearby Donner Summit they averaged around four feet a day! The storms were so bad that at one point Highway 80 over Donner Summit was continuously closed for three days.

As the storm increased in intensity, the stream of bumper-to-bumper holiday traffic heading toward Reno moved slower and slower, eventually slowing to a complete stop. The snow kept falling at a rate of more than two inches an hour, burying thousands of stranded vehicles. Highway 80 over Donner Summit had turned into a 75-mile-long parking lot! Emergency vehicles could not get through. Snow plows could not get through. Cars ran out of gas from people idling their engines in attempts to stay warm. It was a three-day process to painstakingly remove each snow-bound car, one by one, along 75 miles of freeway. The restaurants and stores in Truckee ran out of food, and there were no available beds at any of the inns and hotels. Hundreds of stranded travelers slept on their jackets on the local high school's gymnasium floor and they were the lucky ones compared to those who had been stranded in their cars, out of gas and freezing cold!

Every winter, thousands of people are stranded while driving in the snow. On more than one occasion, I have been overly confident in my abilities to drive in hazardous icy and snow covered roads, forgetting that while I may know how to drive in the snow, that does not mean the other guy does. When driving in winter weather, it is best to heed the old Yankee saying: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst!

Car Survival Tips for a Blizzard
by Mat Stein

[NOTE: This article is adapted from When Disaster Strikes: A Comprehensive Guide for Emergency Planning and Crisis Survival]

What should you do if you are stuck in your car during a killer snowstorm?

In mid-December of 1992, unusually dry conditions had people cancelling their reservations for Christmas in Tahoe, but then the weather changed. A couple days before Christmas, it started snowing, and for the next three months it seemed to barely ever stop! The week between Christmas and New Year's, we averaged two feet of snow each day at our home in Truckee, and at nearby Donner Summit they averaged around four feet a day! The storms were so bad that at one point Highway 80 over Donner Summit was continuously closed for three days.

As the storm increased in intensity, the stream of bumper-to-bumper holiday traffic heading toward Reno moved slower and slower, eventually slowing to a complete stop. The snow kept falling at a rate of more than two inches an hour, burying thousands of stranded vehicles. Highway 80 over Donner Summit had turned into a 75-mile-long parking lot! Emergency vehicles could not get through. Snow plows could not get through. Cars ran out of gas from people idling their engines in attempts to stay warm. It was a three-day process to painstakingly remove each snow-bound car, one by one, along 75 miles of freeway. The restaurants and stores in Truckee ran out of food, and there were no available beds at any of the inns and hotels. Hundreds of stranded travelers slept on their jackets on the local high school's gymnasium floor and they were the lucky ones compared to those who had been stranded in their cars, out of gas and freezing cold!

Every winter, thousands of people are stranded while driving in the snow. On more than one occasion, I have been overly confident in my abilities to drive in hazardous icy and snow covered roads, forgetting that while I may know how to drive in the snow, that does not mean the other guy does. When driving in winter weather, it is best to heed the old Yankee saying: Hope for the best, but plan for the worst!

by Gregor Macdonald

Given emerging data in 2012, it's becoming increasingly clear that the post-war automobile era in the United States is now in well-articulated decline. Accordingly, it makes sense to note the beginning of a long-term supertrend that is just getting started: the resurrection of America’s rail system.

Getting on the Train
by Gregor Macdonald

Given emerging data in 2012, it's becoming increasingly clear that the post-war automobile era in the United States is now in well-articulated decline. Accordingly, it makes sense to note the beginning of a long-term supertrend that is just getting started: the resurrection of America’s rail system.

by Gregor Macdonald

India’s recent series of power blackouts, in which 600 million people lost electricity for several days, reminds us of the torrid pace at which populations in the developing world have moved onto the powergrid. Unfortunately, this great transition has been so rapid that infrastructure has mostly been unable to meet demand. India itself has failed to meets its own power capacity addition targets every year since 1951. This has left roughly one quarter of the country’s population without any (legal) access to electricity. That’s 300 million people out of a population of 1.2 billion. Indeed, it is the daily attempt of the underserved to access power that may have led to India’s recent grid crash.

But the story of India’s inadequate infrastructure is only one part of the difficult, global transition away from liquid fossil fuels. Over the past decade, the majority of new energy demand has been met not through global oil, but through growth in electrical power.

Frankly, this should be no surprise. After all, global production of oil started to flatten more than seven years ago, in 2005. And the developing world, which garners headlines for its increased demand for oil, is running mainly on coal-fired electrical power. There is no question that the non-OECD countries are leading the way as liquid-based transport – automobiles and airlines – have entered longterm decline.

Why, therefore, do policy makers in both the developing and developed world continue to invest in automobile infrastructure?

The Demise of the Car
by Gregor Macdonald

India’s recent series of power blackouts, in which 600 million people lost electricity for several days, reminds us of the torrid pace at which populations in the developing world have moved onto the powergrid. Unfortunately, this great transition has been so rapid that infrastructure has mostly been unable to meet demand. India itself has failed to meets its own power capacity addition targets every year since 1951. This has left roughly one quarter of the country’s population without any (legal) access to electricity. That’s 300 million people out of a population of 1.2 billion. Indeed, it is the daily attempt of the underserved to access power that may have led to India’s recent grid crash.

But the story of India’s inadequate infrastructure is only one part of the difficult, global transition away from liquid fossil fuels. Over the past decade, the majority of new energy demand has been met not through global oil, but through growth in electrical power.

Frankly, this should be no surprise. After all, global production of oil started to flatten more than seven years ago, in 2005. And the developing world, which garners headlines for its increased demand for oil, is running mainly on coal-fired electrical power. There is no question that the non-OECD countries are leading the way as liquid-based transport – automobiles and airlines – have entered longterm decline.

Why, therefore, do policy makers in both the developing and developed world continue to invest in automobile infrastructure?

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