bubble
The Importance Of Knowing
by Adam TaggartAt Peak Prosperity, we strive to help people advance in three key areas: Knowing, Doing and Being.
Doing and Being are the resilience-building steps we recommend. Helping folks develop their own personal action plans in these areas is the main focus of the seminars we run.
But Knowing? That's the essential first part to master. Without sufficient understanding and insight to guide you, any action you take is merely groping in the dark.
Off The Cuff: Increasing Signs The Long Bubble Cycle Is Ending
by Adam TaggartIn this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:
- End-Of-Cycle Signals
- Long-standing trends are changing
- Big Trouble In Saudi Arabia
- Now a powderkeg with a short, lit fuse
- Central Bank Culpability
- It's scary how such powerful entities are so clueless
- Bitcoin Today, Gold Tomorrow
- Hot capital will seek trusted shelter when crisis arrives
In this podcast, John enumerates the growing number of market indicators he sees that suggest major trend changes are afoot in the economy. He believes the long-standing bull cycle, now at bubble-level extreme asset valuations, is set to reverse.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Off The Cuff: A Dependable Crash Indicator Is Now Flashing
by Adam TaggartIn this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:
- Trade Wars
- Suddenly arising with Russia and China
- Modern Monetary Theory
- A delusion that dates back to the days of John Law
- A Great Crash Indicator
- RV sales are sending a warning sign
- Risky Real Estate
- Private equity will sell fast when times get bad
Chris and John discuss the looming trade wars with Russia and China, the long-term implications of the worldwide credit binge, and the indicators that will presage a systemic correction. John shares his assessment of one of his most trusted crash indicators, RV sales:
This is a typical cycle for RVs. It’s a big toy and people are cocky now because they’ve been working for a little while. They have extremely easy credit. Interest rates are incredibly low. If you’ve got a decent credit score you can buy an RV for 2 or 3% interest and a lot of people are taking advantage of that, just as they spent the last three or four years taking advantage of incredibly cheap car loan terms, and running, basically, an auto sales bubble. They’ve kind of shifted to RVs now, which is yet another sign that the cycle is nearing an end.
This "recovery" is 8 years old now. The typical recovery is 6 years. So we already have an expansion that’s a couple of years longer than normal. It’s actually the third longest since World War II. Which means that, everything else being equal, we should be pretty close to the end of this cycle and ready for a downturn. And now you’ve got indicators like RV sales going just parabolic, indicating that, at least in that little section of the market, money is incredibly easy and buyers are euphoric. And that’s also a sign that things are nearing the end. There are lots of other signs, but that’s one.
Every time there’s a bubble in an asset class, there’s always a new reason for it that appears to explain it. But historically the explanation never holds. The cycle still reasserts itself at some point. And things go back to normal. And I suspect that’ll be the case with RVs at some point.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
Off The Cuff: Signs Of An Approaching Downturn
by Adam TaggartIn this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discuss:
- The Late-Stage Housing Bubble
- From the US, to Canada, to China
- Signs Of The Approaching Downturn
- Data everywhere is flat-lining
- Soaring Debt Levels
- At levels that make 2008 look tame
- Canary In The Coal Mine
- The bullet-proof Bay Area showing weakness?
The diverse data sets that Wolf tracks are showing increasing signs of building weakness across the global economy:
We see weakness all over the place now in the United States. In terms of the corporate credit cycle, we have commercial and industrial loans flat-lining since November, meaning they have grown very strongly from the financial crisis and they peaked in October. Since then, it’s all just flat-lining.
And the only time this ever happened in the past, it’s been affiliated with a recession because these are loans that companies take out to fund equipment purchases and for expansion purposes and for the things that are useful to an economy. These are not loans that are used to buy back stocks. This is not for financial engineering. These are actual productive funds. And when you see companies putting a lid on this, they’re not expanding anymore. They’ve borrowed as much as they’re going to borrow, and at some point, these commercial industrial loans will turn down. And this has happened in every recession before.
Plus, we have now a surge in bankruptcies in the United States in terms of commercial bankruptcies. I just did a report on that earlier in May. The prior peak in bankruptcies was during the financial crisis.
Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio and other premium content today.
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