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Image | Long Bonds Surge as Financials Crater: Recession Warning and/or AI Implosion Brewing?
Long Bonds Surge as Financials Crater: Recession Warning and/or AI Implosion Brewing?
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

Long bonds surged as financials cratered this week, with TLT up sharply amid risk-off flows. Is this a classic recession warning, an AI debt implosion brewing, or both?
Long Bonds Surge as Financials Crater: Recession Warning and/or AI Implosion Brewing?
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

Long bonds surged as financials cratered this week, with TLT up sharply amid risk-off flows. Is this a classic recession warning, an AI debt implosion brewing, or both?
Image | Risk-Off: Metals, Energy, Treasury Bonds, Equities, and Junk Debt
Risk-Off: Metals, Energy, Treasury Bonds, Equities, and Junk Debt
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

In terms of market moves, adding it all up: metals (risk-off), energy (mostly recessionary), treasury bonds (risk-off), crappy debt (risk on), equities (risk-off), and blessed bitcoin (risk-off) = seems like risk off to me. Consumer Economy Personal Income (PI); 25.346T +221.9B, (+0.88% m/m) 2024-Q4 GDP (GDP); 29.720T +344.7B (+1.16% q/q) Fed GDP Prediction (GDPNOW); -1.48%…
Risk-Off: Metals, Energy, Treasury Bonds, Equities, and Junk Debt
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

In terms of market moves, adding it all up: metals (risk-off), energy (mostly recessionary), treasury bonds (risk-off), crappy debt (risk on), equities (risk-off), and blessed bitcoin (risk-off) = seems like risk off to me. Consumer Economy Personal Income (PI); 25.346T +221.9B, (+0.88% m/m) 2024-Q4 GDP (GDP); 29.720T +344.7B (+1.16% q/q) Fed GDP Prediction (GDPNOW); -1.48%…
Image | Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys
Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There are 8 billion monkeys, and the bosses are desperate to keep the monkeys dancing.  So they feel they have to keep killing more chickens to keep the monkeys in line.  The parable works with 1 boss and 1 monkey, but that’s not reality.  As this continues, the monkeys are slowly starting to figure out the game.  At some point, the monkeys will look around and realize just how many monkeys and just how few bosses there actually are.
Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There are 8 billion monkeys, and the bosses are desperate to keep the monkeys dancing.  So they feel they have to keep killing more chickens to keep the monkeys in line.  The parable works with 1 boss and 1 monkey, but that’s not reality.  As this continues, the monkeys are slowly starting to figure out the game.  At some point, the monkeys will look around and realize just how many monkeys and just how few bosses there actually are.
Image | Buck Smashed, Metals Rally, and Bad News is Good News
Buck Smashed, Metals Rally, and Bad News is Good News
 PREVIEW
by davefairtex

There were two reports this week, plus the series I usually monitor: Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.18% m/m (prior +0.12% m/m); mildly inflationary. Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.04% m/m (prior -1.26% m/m); deflationary, declining-but-flattening; driven by energy. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -1.4B (-0.02% m/m), prior -0.51% m/m.  deflationary; 2-year low. Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): -35B…
Buck Smashed, Metals Rally, and Bad News is Good News
 PREVIEW by davefairtex

There were two reports this week, plus the series I usually monitor: Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.18% m/m (prior +0.12% m/m); mildly inflationary. Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.04% m/m (prior -1.26% m/m); deflationary, declining-but-flattening; driven by energy. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -1.4B (-0.02% m/m), prior -0.51% m/m.  deflationary; 2-year low. Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): -35B…
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