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Big Crude Rally, Metals & Miners Climb as Treasuries and Equities Fall

Crude oil surged 9% this week, its third straight weekly gain, while gold, silver, and miners advanced. Yields rose, TLT hit a multi-year low, the dollar strengthened, and stocks edged lower in a mild risk-off shift.

Big Crude Rally, Metals & Miners Climb as Treasuries and Equities Fall

PREVIEW by davefairtex

Long Bonds Surge as Financials Crater: Recession Warning and/or AI Implosion Brewing?

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by davefairtex

Long bonds surged as financials cratered this week, with TLT up sharply amid risk-off flows. Is this a classic recession warning, an AI debt implosion brewing, or both?

Long Bonds Surge as Financials Crater: Recession Warning and/or AI Implosion Brewing?

PREVIEW by davefairtex

Long bonds surged as financials cratered this week, with TLT up sharply amid risk-off flows. Is this a classic recession warning, an AI debt implosion brewing, or both?

Risk-Off: Metals, Energy, Treasury Bonds, Equities, and Junk Debt

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by davefairtex

In terms of market moves, adding it all up: metals (risk-off), energy (mostly recessionary), treasury bonds (risk-off), crappy debt (risk on), equities (risk-off), and blessed bitcoin (risk-off) = seems like risk off to me. Consumer Economy Personal Income (PI); 25.346T +221.9B, (+0.88% m/m) 2024-Q4 GDP (GDP); 29.720T +344.7B (+1.16% q/q) Fed GDP Prediction (GDPNOW); -1.48%…

Risk-Off: Metals, Energy, Treasury Bonds, Equities, and Junk Debt

PREVIEW by davefairtex

Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys

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by davefairtex

There are 8 billion monkeys, and the bosses are desperate to keep the monkeys dancing. So they feel they have to keep killing more chickens to keep the monkeys in line. The parable works with 1 boss and 1 monkey, but that’s not reality. As this continues, the monkeys are slowly starting to figure out the game. At some point, the monkeys will look around and realize just how many monkeys and just how few bosses there actually are.

Bank Credit Goes Negative, Scaring the Monkeys

PREVIEW by davefairtex

Buck Smashed, Metals Rally, and Bad News is Good News

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by davefairtex

There were two reports this week, plus the series I usually monitor: Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.18% m/m (prior +0.12% m/m); mildly inflationary. Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.04% m/m (prior -1.26% m/m); deflationary, declining-but-flattening; driven by energy. Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -1.4B (-0.02% m/m), prior -0.51% m/m. deflationary; 2-year low. Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): -35B…