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by Adam Taggart
The Near Future May See One of the Biggest Wealth Transfers in Human History
by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Why GDP growth is very unlikely to support the rate of credit growth the Fed wants
- If it can't, what is most likely to happen?
- Why the current bubble threatens to end in one of the biggest wealth transfers in human history
- How to increase your odds of being on the right side of that transfer
If you have not yet read Part I: The Fed Can Only Fail, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The (Delusional) Plan: Growth Will Cover Past & Future Debts
Currently, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 350% in 2013. This is an historically elevated number, so much so that we really don't have anything in our economic history books to tell us what comes next. Robust economic growth, we suppose, that can reduce that imbalance painlessly.
But looking at the past 220 years of history, we find that the average yearly growth in U.S. GDP has been 3.8%:
(Source)
Now, I have some quibbles with the idea that the U.S. will be able to sustain that long-run average of 3.8% over the next 30 years, because debt levels are already crushing growth, as are high oil prices (double whammy!). But let's spot the Fed every advantage here.
If U.S. GDP grows at 3.8% annually, but credit grows at 8%, that means the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio would balloon to 1,130% by 2043. That's equivalent to someone with a $50,000 salary carrying $57
Executive Summary
- Why GDP growth is very unlikely to support the rate of credit growth the Fed wants
- If it can't, what is most likely to happen?
- Why the current bubble threatens to end in one of the biggest wealth transfers in human history
- How to increase your odds of being on the right side of that transfer
If you have not yet read Part I: The Fed Can Only Fail, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The (Delusional) Plan: Growth Will Cover Past & Future Debts
Currently, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio stands at around 350% in 2013. This is an historically elevated number, so much so that we really don't have anything in our economic history books to tell us what comes next. Robust economic growth, we suppose, that can reduce that imbalance painlessly.
But looking at the past 220 years of history, we find that the average yearly growth in U.S. GDP has been 3.8%:
(Source)
Now, I have some quibbles with the idea that the U.S. will be able to sustain that long-run average of 3.8% over the next 30 years, because debt levels are already crushing growth, as are high oil prices (double whammy!). But let's spot the Fed every advantage here.
If U.S. GDP grows at 3.8% annually, but credit grows at 8%, that means the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio would balloon to 1,130% by 2043. That's equivalent to someone with a $50,000 salary carrying $57
Key Considerations for Starting an Intentional Community
by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- How to recruit the "best-fit" members
- How to develop community rules in advance to attract the best prospects and set expectations from the beginning
- Ownership/management options for running communities (including a recommended structure)
- The 6 key guiding principles for running an intentional community
If you have not yet read Part I: The Growing Appeal of Intentional Community, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we surveyed some of the more common variants of traditional communities: religious communities, family-based hamlets, cohousing and cooperative housing. In Part II, we’ll examine some of the issues that must be addressed when starting an intentional community.
I hope I won’t shock you too terribly by starting with the observation that human beings are notoriously difficult to deal with when assembled in groups. Those of you who participate in community groups need no further explanation, as you are already nodding your head in agreement.
Trying to achieve consensus on every issue is either impossible or impossibly time-consuming, and so every organization, from church to nation-state, has a structure to simplify participation and authority.
There are two sets of problems in launching an intentional community: assembling a group of people with the collective capital and will to bring a complex project to fruition, and locating a practical, affordable building or parcel for the community…
Executive Summary
- How to recruit the "best-fit" members
- How to develop community rules in advance to attract the best prospects and set expectations from the beginning
- Ownership/management options for running communities (including a recommended structure)
- The 6 key guiding principles for running an intentional community
If you have not yet read Part I: The Growing Appeal of Intentional Community, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part I, we surveyed some of the more common variants of traditional communities: religious communities, family-based hamlets, cohousing and cooperative housing. In Part II, we’ll examine some of the issues that must be addressed when starting an intentional community.
I hope I won’t shock you too terribly by starting with the observation that human beings are notoriously difficult to deal with when assembled in groups. Those of you who participate in community groups need no further explanation, as you are already nodding your head in agreement.
Trying to achieve consensus on every issue is either impossible or impossibly time-consuming, and so every organization, from church to nation-state, has a structure to simplify participation and authority.
There are two sets of problems in launching an intentional community: assembling a group of people with the collective capital and will to bring a complex project to fruition, and locating a practical, affordable building or parcel for the community…
by Adam Taggart
by Adam Taggart
Mark Skousen: Surveillance Technology Is Advancing Faster Than We Can Responsibly Use It
by Adam TaggartIn the wake of the recent news revealing the extent of the NSA's level of citizen surveillance through supernetworks like PRISM, Chris speaks this week with Mark Skousen, former-CIA-agent turned founder-of-FreedomFest, one of the countries largest "gatherings of free minds."
Mark argues that in this case, technology has advanced at a far faster pace than our culture's ability to understand how to use it effectively, responsibly, and how to regulate it:
In the wake of the recent news revealing the extent of the NSA's level of citizen surveillance through supernetworks like PRISM, Chris speaks this week with Mark Skousen, former-CIA-agent turned founder-of-FreedomFest, one of the countries largest "gatherings of free minds."
Mark argues that in this case, technology has advanced at a far faster pace than our culture's ability to understand how to use it effectively, responsibly, and how to regulate it:
If We’re Ever Going to Take Control of Our Destiny, the Time is Now
by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Adapting our behavior is a must at this point. We really don't have the option not to.
- The number of claims on real wealth is increasing. How much of the "real wealth" do you own?
- Our economy is now truly a confidence-based system. What will be the fallout when that confidence falters?
- What are the key knowns & unknowns we need to be addressing now?
If you have not yet read Part I: In a Bad Spot, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
What is completely unknown at this point is what will happen to our very complex and interwoven financial system when it finally comes to grips with the idea that old-style growth is never coming back. One worrisome idea is that it will experience something akin to cardiac arrest and simply break down one day.
Maybe this will happen, maybe not. I will note that the degree to which the central banks have set themselves up as the ultimate saviors of the system has both an upside and a downside, and it is the downside that worries me the most at this point.
While all the trillions of dollars of intervention have stabilized the system, which I consider to be a good thing, the downside is that the central banks have placed themselves in a position where they had better succeed. If not? Then we discover just how important confidence is to a monetary system built, owned, and operated on trust. My guess is "very."
Executive Summary
- Adapting our behavior is a must at this point. We really don't have the option not to.
- The number of claims on real wealth is increasing. How much of the "real wealth" do you own?
- Our economy is now truly a confidence-based system. What will be the fallout when that confidence falters?
- What are the key knowns & unknowns we need to be addressing now?
If you have not yet read Part I: In a Bad Spot, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
What is completely unknown at this point is what will happen to our very complex and interwoven financial system when it finally comes to grips with the idea that old-style growth is never coming back. One worrisome idea is that it will experience something akin to cardiac arrest and simply break down one day.
Maybe this will happen, maybe not. I will note that the degree to which the central banks have set themselves up as the ultimate saviors of the system has both an upside and a downside, and it is the downside that worries me the most at this point.
While all the trillions of dollars of intervention have stabilized the system, which I consider to be a good thing, the downside is that the central banks have placed themselves in a position where they had better succeed. If not? Then we discover just how important confidence is to a monetary system built, owned, and operated on trust. My guess is "very."
by Aaron M
Practical Survival Skills 101 – Understanding Emergencies (Updated)
by Aaron M[Note: This WSID Article is an updated version of an article Aaron previously submitted in March 2011 (see original). There will be additional follow-on articles that will compliment this one on Understanding Emergencies. This article still complements Aaron's earlier "Practical Survival Skills 101" posts on fire, water, and shelter.]
Preface: What is an emergency?
There is an awful lot of academic banter in which we try to “identify” emergencies before they happen. Pedantic issues are categorized and specifics are assigned to them as potential resolutions. This is not a “flawed” approach, but it’s endemic in the American mindset, which is obsessed with micromanagement.
In order to distance ourselves from the details, which are too stochastic and specific, we can generally state that an emergency is a shortage of resources.
Resources can be defined as:
[Note: This WSID Article is an updated version of an article Aaron previously submitted in March 2011 (see original). There will be additional follow-on articles that will compliment this one on Understanding Emergencies. This article still complements Aaron's earlier "Practical Survival Skills 101" posts on fire, water, and shelter.]
Preface: What is an emergency?
There is an awful lot of academic banter in which we try to “identify” emergencies before they happen. Pedantic issues are categorized and specifics are assigned to them as potential resolutions. This is not a “flawed” approach, but it’s endemic in the American mindset, which is obsessed with micromanagement.
In order to distance ourselves from the details, which are too stochastic and specific, we can generally state that an emergency is a shortage of resources.
Resources can be defined as:
On Friday, October 7th, a beautiful blue-sky and warm-ish October day, I went to Zuccotti Park in NYC with Livio Sanchez (film editor) and Debby Brand (camera operator) to see firsthand what Occupy Wall Street was all about and record what we could.
by Adam Taggart
Argentina: A Case Study in How An Economy Collapses
by Adam Taggart"When you ask any Argentinean person what concerns them the most, the first thing they’re going to be telling you is the crime problem. And the second one is the financial problem. Those are by far the top concerns the average Argentinean person has, and I think that eventually it will happen in the U.S.A., as well. I think that five years from now or so, you’re going to be talking to people, and the thing that’s going to be concerning them is that Joe down the street suffered a home invasion and got beaten up, maybe even got killed. All kinds of crime that didn't used to happen in the good parts of town. It’s going to be one of the greatest concerns people will have, eventually.
And, of course, the financial situation as well. If you look into what people are worried about right now they’re worried about losing their jobs not being able to put food on the table the next month. They see that if they lose their jobs it’s not as easy as it used to be to find another one as well. That’s terrible, because it’s very cold when you look at it in numbers, but it’s—I’m telling you—it’s so much different when it happens on a social level and you see that on the street . When you see the people picking up garbage on the streets to eat."
Hyperinflation survivor Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre shares his observations of life during and after Argentina's currency collapse in 2001. He notes that the decline initally began slowly, with most of the populace slow to wake to the danger. But when the eventual collapse occured, it happened practiclly overnight – catching the country by surprise. In the wake of the collapse, dealing with poverty and violent crime became the dominant themes.
Worth our attention is his observation that he now sees the sames signs in the US and other major developed nations that he saw leading up to Argentina's collapse. In fact, he foresees a similar endgame as all but inevitable.
Click the play button below to listen to Part 1 of Chris' interview with FerFAL (runtime 31m:43s):
[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/ferfal-2011-06-09-part1.mp3"]
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Or start reading the transcript below:
"When you ask any Argentinean person what concerns them the most, the first thing they’re going to be telling you is the crime problem. And the second one is the financial problem. Those are by far the top concerns the average Argentinean person has, and I think that eventually it will happen in the U.S.A., as well. I think that five years from now or so, you’re going to be talking to people, and the thing that’s going to be concerning them is that Joe down the street suffered a home invasion and got beaten up, maybe even got killed. All kinds of crime that didn't used to happen in the good parts of town. It’s going to be one of the greatest concerns people will have, eventually.
And, of course, the financial situation as well. If you look into what people are worried about right now they’re worried about losing their jobs not being able to put food on the table the next month. They see that if they lose their jobs it’s not as easy as it used to be to find another one as well. That’s terrible, because it’s very cold when you look at it in numbers, but it’s—I’m telling you—it’s so much different when it happens on a social level and you see that on the street . When you see the people picking up garbage on the streets to eat."
Hyperinflation survivor Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre shares his observations of life during and after Argentina's currency collapse in 2001. He notes that the decline initally began slowly, with most of the populace slow to wake to the danger. But when the eventual collapse occured, it happened practiclly overnight – catching the country by surprise. In the wake of the collapse, dealing with poverty and violent crime became the dominant themes.
Worth our attention is his observation that he now sees the sames signs in the US and other major developed nations that he saw leading up to Argentina's collapse. In fact, he foresees a similar endgame as all but inevitable.
Click the play button below to listen to Part 1 of Chris' interview with FerFAL (runtime 31m:43s):
[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/ferfal-2011-06-09-part1.mp3"]
Download/Play the Podcast
Report a Problem Playing the Podcast
Or start reading the transcript below:
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Community
by cmartenson
by ryn1210
Hard Assets Alliance
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