All:

Here is the talk I plan to give…  After I received the strongest possible message from you that I should not hold back the message in any way, what you see below is the result.  At the same time, I wanted to keep the messaging on the positive/hopeful side, even if the core ideas are not.  It’s a fine line, so I am interested in your perspectives on that balance.

I am still wide open to revisions, and it will change between here and then. 

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Executive Summary

• Underlying beliefs can get in the way of action.
• The status quo is unsustainable.
• We face a future filled with "less" on many levels.
• Surplus energy determines social complexity.
• Peak Oil has passed and there is no return to the old economy.
• We still have some choice in how this change plays out.
• We must continue reformulating our beliefs and moving towards action.

The topic of this Martenson Report is one of the most important we will ever cover. My mission is to help you see that change is coming – potentially highly disruptive change – far enough in advance so that the opportunity exists to make gradual changes on your own terms.

Standing in the way of our taking actions are our beliefs, which we have formed over a lifetime of observation. For example, if I show someone forty-two very compelling graphs of Peak Oil, but the person remains unconvinced (as evidenced by their lack of action), I invariably find that they hold an underlying belief which is in conflict with the data.  Most often, that belief turns out to be "technology will save us."  This is a powerful belief, because it has been reinforced by a lifetime filled with the most exceptional technological progress ever seen in human history.  So it won’t matter if I show that person one graph, or ten, or forty-two, or a hundred.  That stuff is just data.  We take actions based on our beliefs.  But if a belief is in conflict with data, the belief wins every time.

Every day I try to convince people that one era is drawing to a close and a new era is beginning.  The lure of the old way is very strong.  It is constantly reinforced by a media machine and an interlocking institutional framework that are fully dedicated to preserving the status quo.

From my point of view, the status quo does not have a future.  It was unsustainable from the start, and even if we manage to resuscitate it for a few more years, nothing will change that fact.  Worse, every attempt to sustain the unsustainable results in squandering our precious remaining time and resources, which means that with these attempts, we relegate ourselves and our children to a future of decreased prosperity.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Executive Summary

• Inflation or deflation? – the most important question of our day
• Vast disagreements exist
• Timing
• Inflation = persistent increase in money and credit
• Inflation Myths
• What you can do

There is simply no more contentious or important issue sitting before everyone these days than resolving the question of whether deflation or inflation lies before us. Sides have been drawn, opinions hardened, and camps formed.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Executive Summary

• Stop waiting for "it" to happen; it already has.
• Keep the big picture in mind.
• This is a crisis of too much debt, not too little spending.
• This is a global crisis.
• The energy situation is getting worse, not better.
• It’s not possible for an insolvent nation to borrow money from an insolvent financial system to bail out insolvent financial, real estate, and insurance companies.
• Change is necessary, and we must embrace it.

If you have been waiting for further confirmation about the direction of the economy, or waiting for a sign that it’s now time to get serious about preparing for a future filled with less, this report is written for you.

My job is to provide you with a big-picture view of where we are and where we are headed, with an emphasis on clarifying the ways in which the dominant spin-cycle news machinery attempts to lure us back into the false comfort of borrowing and spending more.

At PeakProsperity.com, people often wonder about what they’ll do "when things fall apart."  A frequently-used acronym-containing alternative to this phrase is "when TSHTF," where the "F" refers to a fan and the other letters to something else hitting the fan that I will be coy about, so as not to offend anybody’s sensibilities or trigger any spam filters.

I have news for everybody:  It has hit the fan.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Executive Summary

• Explaining Oil Pricing – oil prices are "set at the margin"
• Oil Storage – When it’s pumped out of the ground it has to go somewhere
• Oil Price Behavior – slight supply and demand imbalances drive prices
• The Total Shortfall – too little oil to support a robust recovery
• Nothing Fails Like Success – the worst thing would be a rapid economic recovery
• Timing – when will Oil Shock III arrive?
• What should you do?
• Investments, food, selecting a community, and an abbreviated buy list