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by Chris Martenson

There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.

This one concerns the results of bank stress tests due to be announced this week.

The Bank Stress Tests Have Already Failed

Here’s part of the conclusion:

A “stress test,” at least as far as I understand it from a scientific or engineering standpoint, is supposed to encompass a set of conditions beyond normal, or expected, values. The bank stress-test assumptions are already exceeded in each case by real-world conditions, and therefore will be neither illuminating nor predictive when they are released. Let’s all be thankful that the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department do not design bridges. If they did, they might “stress test” them by simulating an average load of traffic under average conditions and declare them perfectly safe.

I advise you to tune out what is certain to be an upbeat assessment of the condition of our banks, when the stress test results are finally released.  My opinion is that the stress tests were specifically designed to be neither stressful nor revealing.  Instead, they were designed to produce expected results for the purpose of instilling confidence in banks and in the crisis management team.

New Martenson Report Ready for Enrolled Members
by Chris Martenson

There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.

This one concerns the results of bank stress tests due to be announced this week.

The Bank Stress Tests Have Already Failed

Here’s part of the conclusion:

A “stress test,” at least as far as I understand it from a scientific or engineering standpoint, is supposed to encompass a set of conditions beyond normal, or expected, values. The bank stress-test assumptions are already exceeded in each case by real-world conditions, and therefore will be neither illuminating nor predictive when they are released. Let’s all be thankful that the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department do not design bridges. If they did, they might “stress test” them by simulating an average load of traffic under average conditions and declare them perfectly safe.

I advise you to tune out what is certain to be an upbeat assessment of the condition of our banks, when the stress test results are finally released.  My opinion is that the stress tests were specifically designed to be neither stressful nor revealing.  Instead, they were designed to produce expected results for the purpose of instilling confidence in banks and in the crisis management team.

by Chris Martenson

The economic news these days can be readily parsed into two separate types: increasingly positive “survey” data and increasingly worse “real” data.

I recently wrote about the flaws in the survey reports, so I won’t spend more time here discussing why these reports are best taken with a very large grain of salt.

First, the survey data that was released today:

Spin Cycle Set to “High”
by Chris Martenson

The economic news these days can be readily parsed into two separate types: increasingly positive “survey” data and increasingly worse “real” data.

I recently wrote about the flaws in the survey reports, so I won’t spend more time here discussing why these reports are best taken with a very large grain of salt.

First, the survey data that was released today:

by Chris Martenson
Fuzzier Than Ever – The Latest GDP Report
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
by Chris Martenson

There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members

Link to Survey Says….


Here’s a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls
  • Examples of influential survey data are given
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy
  • Beware the "spin"
  • The bottom is not in yet
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find. I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports. I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis. This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago…

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap. My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged’ to paint a brighter picture than actually exists. If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.

 

New Martenson Report: Survey Says….
by Chris Martenson

There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members

Link to Survey Says….


Here’s a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls
  • Examples of influential survey data are given
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy
  • Beware the "spin"
  • The bottom is not in yet
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find. I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports. I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis. This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago…

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap. My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged’ to paint a brighter picture than actually exists. If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.

 

by Chris Martenson
Sunday, April 19, 2009

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data.
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data.
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls.
  • Examples of influential survey data are given.
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy.
  • Beware the "spin."
  • The bottom is not in yet.
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely.

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find.  I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports.  I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis.  This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago…

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap.  My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged’ to paint a brighter picture than actually exists.   If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.

Survey Says…
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
Sunday, April 19, 2009

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data.
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data.
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls.
  • Examples of influential survey data are given.
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy.
  • Beware the "spin."
  • The bottom is not in yet.
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely.

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find.  I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports.  I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis.  This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago…

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap.  My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged’ to paint a brighter picture than actually exists.   If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.

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