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by Chris Martenson

Important note: 

It is with a heavy heart that I am now issuing the highest level alert to my readers than I have to date. The threshold for an alert is one or more world events that personally cause me to take action.

I’m making this alert publicly available less than 36 hours after releasing it to my enrolled subscribers given its importance and the speed at which events are accelerating.

The substance of this alert centers on the unknown aftershocks that may result from the world’s third largest economy, Japan, rapidly shifting from an exporter of funding to a consumer of it. In situations like these, we are by definition operating with incomplete and often confusing information, and events are developing more rapidly than they can be fully analyzed and internalized. We regret in advance any mistakes that we might make due to making calls and decisions in this highly fluid environment.


This alert warns you that major world-changing events are now underway and that your personal preparations for an uncertain future should either be completed or take on a new sense of urgency. On the basis of the information contained here and in the past two days of posts, I am personally ratcheting up my preparations, making purchases, and topping off what needs to be topped off.

Important caveat:  At this point in time, I cannot fully support 100% of my concerns with hard data and evidence. Some of what has tipped me into this state of urgency is data, evidence, and stories that I can point to. Some is due to the absence of data or information, the remainder results from watching market gyrations and correlations shift into new patterns, which tell me something is afoot.

I have not been this concerned since October of 2008.

Alert! – Nuclear (and Economic) Meltdown In Progres
by Chris Martenson

Important note: 

It is with a heavy heart that I am now issuing the highest level alert to my readers than I have to date. The threshold for an alert is one or more world events that personally cause me to take action.

I’m making this alert publicly available less than 36 hours after releasing it to my enrolled subscribers given its importance and the speed at which events are accelerating.

The substance of this alert centers on the unknown aftershocks that may result from the world’s third largest economy, Japan, rapidly shifting from an exporter of funding to a consumer of it. In situations like these, we are by definition operating with incomplete and often confusing information, and events are developing more rapidly than they can be fully analyzed and internalized. We regret in advance any mistakes that we might make due to making calls and decisions in this highly fluid environment.


This alert warns you that major world-changing events are now underway and that your personal preparations for an uncertain future should either be completed or take on a new sense of urgency. On the basis of the information contained here and in the past two days of posts, I am personally ratcheting up my preparations, making purchases, and topping off what needs to be topped off.

Important caveat:  At this point in time, I cannot fully support 100% of my concerns with hard data and evidence. Some of what has tipped me into this state of urgency is data, evidence, and stories that I can point to. Some is due to the absence of data or information, the remainder results from watching market gyrations and correlations shift into new patterns, which tell me something is afoot.

I have not been this concerned since October of 2008.

by Aaron M

Aaron submitted this post prior to the recent disaster in Japan. As we are now being educated in real-time as to the value of developing preparedness in advance of calamity, the guidance below becomes even more relevant. This article complements Aaron's earlier "Practical Survival Skills 101" posts on fire, water, and shelter.

Preface: What is an emergency? 

 height=There is an awful lot of academic banter in which we try to “identify” emergencies before they happen. Pedantic issues are categorized and specifics are assigned to them as potential resolutions. This is not a “flawed” approach, but it’s endemic in the American mindset, which is obsessed with micromanagement.

In order to distance ourselves from the details, which are too stochastic and specific, we can generally state that an emergency is a shortage of resources.

Resources can be defined as:

 

Practical Survival Skills 101 – Understanding Emergencies
by Aaron M

Aaron submitted this post prior to the recent disaster in Japan. As we are now being educated in real-time as to the value of developing preparedness in advance of calamity, the guidance below becomes even more relevant. This article complements Aaron's earlier "Practical Survival Skills 101" posts on fire, water, and shelter.

Preface: What is an emergency? 

 height=There is an awful lot of academic banter in which we try to “identify” emergencies before they happen. Pedantic issues are categorized and specifics are assigned to them as potential resolutions. This is not a “flawed” approach, but it’s endemic in the American mindset, which is obsessed with micromanagement.

In order to distance ourselves from the details, which are too stochastic and specific, we can generally state that an emergency is a shortage of resources.

Resources can be defined as:

 

by rhare

Given its simple elegance in addressing a question frequently asked on this site, this post has been elevated from the forums section. It has been updated by site members rhare and travlin since its first appearance (the original post can be read here).

I've been working on a way to get across to friends and family how bad the economic situation has become. I find one of the biggest problems is that when numbers are in the billions and trillions they are very hard to imagine, and people get this glazed/deer in the headlights look. So I decided to try to scale the numbers in a way that can be more easily visualized. 

Below is an updated version, with many thanks to members of PeakProsperity.com community who suggested changes/corrections, and particularly to Travlin for rewording much of the message to make it a better story. Hopefully this version will help convince others of the serious nature of the US fiscal outlook. 

My Troubled Relative 

I need your advice. I have a relativewho is in financial trouble. He makes $50,000 a year, but he spent $74,591 last year, and his prospects of making $50,000 this year look kind of bad. There's a good chance he will get a pay cut.

 

How to Explain the Current Economic Situation to Friends & Family
by rhare

Given its simple elegance in addressing a question frequently asked on this site, this post has been elevated from the forums section. It has been updated by site members rhare and travlin since its first appearance (the original post can be read here).

I've been working on a way to get across to friends and family how bad the economic situation has become. I find one of the biggest problems is that when numbers are in the billions and trillions they are very hard to imagine, and people get this glazed/deer in the headlights look. So I decided to try to scale the numbers in a way that can be more easily visualized. 

Below is an updated version, with many thanks to members of PeakProsperity.com community who suggested changes/corrections, and particularly to Travlin for rewording much of the message to make it a better story. Hopefully this version will help convince others of the serious nature of the US fiscal outlook. 

My Troubled Relative 

I need your advice. I have a relativewho is in financial trouble. He makes $50,000 a year, but he spent $74,591 last year, and his prospects of making $50,000 this year look kind of bad. There's a good chance he will get a pay cut.

 

by Chris Martenson

The Coming Rout

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Further evidence that a Fed quantitative easing stoppage in June is likely
  • Implications such a stoppage will have on stocks, commodities, bonds, and precious metals
  • Why this will be more damaging to the economy than the 2008 correction
  • Will the Fed eventually resume quantitative easing?
  • Three alternatives to watch for that could prevent the coming rout
  • How to hedge against the predicted rout

Part I:  Why Things Are About To Get Turned Upside Down

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II:  The Coming Rout

There are a few things that make the prospect of a Fed quantitative easing (QE) stoppage more likely.

The Fed Notices Inflation

Using a flashlight, a map, and both hands, the Fed managed to find something:

Fed Finds Climbing Costs Hit Shoppers 

March 3, 2011

Many manufacturers are passing along higher input costs to their customers, a sign that rising prices for wheat, cotton, iron, and other commodities could increasingly reach consumers in coming months, according to the Federal Reserve’s beige book survey.

The report, a summary of economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 regional districts, said manufacturers “in a number of districts reported having greater ability” to pass through higher costs. “Retailers in some districts mentioned they had implemented price increases or were anticipating such action in the next few months,” the Fed said.

It’s good to see that the Fed is at least dimly aware that price inflation is in the pipe and coming soon to a market near you.  The rest of the world has had no such difficulties in detecting inflation, especially on news like this:

The Coming Rout
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The Coming Rout

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Further evidence that a Fed quantitative easing stoppage in June is likely
  • Implications such a stoppage will have on stocks, commodities, bonds, and precious metals
  • Why this will be more damaging to the economy than the 2008 correction
  • Will the Fed eventually resume quantitative easing?
  • Three alternatives to watch for that could prevent the coming rout
  • How to hedge against the predicted rout

Part I:  Why Things Are About To Get Turned Upside Down

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II:  The Coming Rout

There are a few things that make the prospect of a Fed quantitative easing (QE) stoppage more likely.

The Fed Notices Inflation

Using a flashlight, a map, and both hands, the Fed managed to find something:

Fed Finds Climbing Costs Hit Shoppers 

March 3, 2011

Many manufacturers are passing along higher input costs to their customers, a sign that rising prices for wheat, cotton, iron, and other commodities could increasingly reach consumers in coming months, according to the Federal Reserve’s beige book survey.

The report, a summary of economic conditions across the central bank’s 12 regional districts, said manufacturers “in a number of districts reported having greater ability” to pass through higher costs. “Retailers in some districts mentioned they had implemented price increases or were anticipating such action in the next few months,” the Fed said.

It’s good to see that the Fed is at least dimly aware that price inflation is in the pipe and coming soon to a market near you.  The rest of the world has had no such difficulties in detecting inflation, especially on news like this:

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